PAF J-10CE News, Updates and Discussion

[rafale]

If IAF goes for 114 Rafales, especially the F4/F5 standards, that’s a serious short‑term boost. Rafale is already proven, and with upgrades across the fleet, plus Meteor BVRAAM and advanced EW (SPECTRA), it becomes a tough opponent. PAF’s J‑10C and JF‑17 Block III with PL‑15 (~200 km range) help balance the BVR equation, but Rafale’s electronic warfare sophistication will still complicate things.

On the other hand, Su‑57 offers stealth and payload advantages, but it’s still maturing. Export versions may not match Russian domestic ones, and logistics/support are uncertain. If IAF commits to Su‑57 in large numbers, PAF would need to accelerate counter‑stealth measures — low‑frequency radars, passive detection, and long‑range SAMs — while also considering stealth parity through J‑35 acquisition.

We also can’t ignore the “Super Sukhoi” program. Upgraded Su‑30MKIs with AESA radar and Astra BVR missiles add depth to IAF’s fleet. Even without Rafale or Su‑57 expansion, these MKIs remain a persistent headache for PAF.

So for PAF, the path forward is clear but difficult: expand J‑10C numbers, fully operationalize JF‑17 Block III with PL‑15, and seriously consider inducting around 40 J‑35s for stealth parity. Even then, Rafale F4/F5 upgrades and Super Sukhoi modernization mean the challenge will remain significant.

F4 Rafales Pakistan already know....from the GCC knowledge and it doesn't bring anything to challenge the PL15 superiority. It adds Data Links which will take time for Indians to master. Plus the first Rafale will arrive not before 2-3 years AFTER contract signing.

Secondly, IAF has "option" to switch to F5 versions as they become available towards the end numbers of 114 rafales order.......what that means if you have any idea about commercial contracts, that IAF will have to confirm the decision to get F5 which means more cost and delays expected.....F5 Rafales will NOT BE AT THE SAME COST AS F4s.

PAF has plenty of time to induct more J-10s, operationalize and test J-35s and build a robust AD layer.

 

[rafale]

View attachment 174850
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Is that white thingy on the dorsal spine (behind the canopy) satellite link antenna?

@Oscar

 

[Ali Yusuf]

If IAF goes for 114 Rafales, especially the F4/F5 standards, that’s a serious short‑term boost. Rafale is already proven, and with upgrades across the fleet, plus Meteor BVRAAM and advanced EW (SPECTRA), it becomes a tough opponent. PAF’s J‑10C and JF‑17 Block III with PL‑15 (~200 km range) help balance the BVR equation, but Rafale’s electronic warfare sophistication will still complicate things.

On the other hand, Su‑57 offers stealth and payload advantages, but it’s still maturing. Export versions may not match Russian domestic ones, and logistics/support are uncertain. If IAF commits to Su‑57 in large numbers, PAF would need to accelerate counter‑stealth measures — low‑frequency radars, passive detection, and long‑range SAMs — while also considering stealth parity through J‑35 acquisition.

We also can’t ignore the “Super Sukhoi” program. Upgraded Su‑30MKIs with AESA radar and Astra BVR missiles add depth to IAF’s fleet. Even without Rafale or Su‑57 expansion, these MKIs remain a persistent headache for PAF.

So for PAF, the path forward is clear but difficult: expand J‑10C numbers, fully operationalize JF‑17 Block III with PL‑15, and seriously consider inducting around 40 J‑35s for stealth parity. Even then, Rafale F4/F5 upgrades and Super Sukhoi modernization mean the challenge will remain significant.

More than the perceived longer range of the PL-15, in the PAF inventory, the game changer was the complete dominance of the PAF over the IAF in the Electrmagnetic Spectrum, namely in the realm of Electronic Warfare.

None of the IAF jets could even get off a BVRAAM shot on the PAF fighter despite having around 70 fighters airborne.

Even the much vaunted SPECTRA suite of the Rafale could not counter the PAF EW dominance.

 

[Oscar]

Is that white thingy on the dorsal spine (behind the canopy) satellite link antenna?

@Oscar

Possibly

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

More than the perceived longer range of the PL-15, in the PAF inventory, the game changer was the complete dominance of the PAF over the IAF in the Electrmagnetic Spectrum, namely in the realm of Electronic Warfare.

None of the IAF jets could even get off a BVRAAM shot on the PAF fighter despite having around 70 fighters airborne.

Even the much vaunted SPECTRA suite of the Rafale could not counter the PAF EW dominance.

A great thing about the French: they have a "Jules Verne" mindset to go for extreme complexity to show how clever and cunning they are; however, their endevors end up in being a "Maginot Line".....

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

White elephants of IAF.

The Bharati mindset loves the "Elephants"! But, these "elephants" have been constantly failing since the time of Qutubeddin Aybek! Yet, they'll never give up on their faith and belief as per the KITAP....

 

[Deino]

Is that white thingy on the dorsal spine (behind the canopy) satellite link antenna?

@Oscar

It‘s a radio-compass designated WL-9

 

[safriz]

It‘s a radio-compass designated WL-9

Is there an upwards looking MAWS on this aircraft?

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

If IAF goes for 114 Rafales, especially the F4/F5 standards, that’s a serious short‑term boost. Rafale is already proven, and with upgrades across the fleet, plus Meteor BVRAAM and advanced EW (SPECTRA), it becomes a tough opponent. PAF’s J‑10C and JF‑17 Block III with PL‑15 (~200 km range) help balance the BVR equation, but Rafale’s electronic warfare sophistication will still complicate things.

On the other hand, Su‑57 offers stealth and payload advantages, but it’s still maturing. Export versions may not match Russian domestic ones, and logistics/support are uncertain. If IAF commits to Su‑57 in large numbers, PAF would need to accelerate counter‑stealth measures — low‑frequency radars, passive detection, and long‑range SAMs — while also considering stealth parity through J‑35 acquisition.

We also can’t ignore the “Super Sukhoi” program. Upgraded Su‑30MKIs with AESA radar and Astra BVR missiles add depth to IAF’s fleet. Even without Rafale or Su‑57 expansion, these MKIs remain a persistent headache for PAF.

So for PAF, the path forward is clear but difficult: expand J‑10C numbers, fully operationalize JF‑17 Block III with PL‑15, and seriously consider inducting around 40 J‑35s for stealth parity. Even then, Rafale F4/F5 upgrades and Super Sukhoi modernization mean the challenge will remain significant.

it is a nice post!

but it assumes, too many enemy fighters will result in too damage!

that is too planted in numbers

another question could be, how many less MKIs and Rafale are needed to collapse our AD?

 

[studsmart]

By 2028, the year I expect another shootdown with Pakistan, the IAF will have 76 Rafael [AF + navy], with 69 available. From 250 Su-30MKI with a 70% availability rate, 175+ Su-30MKI can be available. That makes 244 fighter planes. Add 40 or so Tejas, and you have 284 fighters. Now, if you count Mirage 2000 with 80% availability and MiG 29 with 60% availability, the max comes out to be 364. Not counting Jaguar in this number. Compare that to PAF, F-16, J-10C, and JF-17 blk 3 with 90% availability, that is 127. Add JF-17 blk 2 + blk 1 with 80% availability, the numbers will be 211 plus 40 J-35 to make it 251. So the equation will be 251 to 364 fighters. PAF will be 70% of the strength of IAF with 5th-gen fighters to dominate. Add 13 PAF AEWCS and 6 EW platforms to 6 IAF AEWCS and 6 EW platforms, and you have a complete picture. Still seems to be in favor of PAF.

 

[safriz]

By 2028, the year I expect another shootdown with Pakistan, the IAF will have 76 Rafael [AF + navy], with 69 available. From 250 Su-30MKI with a 70% availability rate, 175+ Su-30MKI can be available. That makes 244 fighter planes. Add 40 or so Tejas, and you have 284 fighters. Now, if you count Mirage 2000 with 80% availability and MiG 29 with 60% availability, the max comes out to be 364. Not counting Jaguar in this number. Compare that to PAF, F-16, J-10C, and JF-17 blk 3 with 90% availability, that is 127. Add JF-17 blk 2 + blk 1 with 80% availability, the numbers will be 211 plus 40 J-35 to make it 251. So the equation will be 251 to 364 fighters. PAF will be 70% of the strength of IAF with 5th-gen fighters to dominate. Add 13 PAF AEWCS and 6 EW platforms to 6 IAF AEWCS and 6 EW platforms, and you have a complete picture. Still seems to be in favor of PAF.

PAF cannot have the same number of anything as IAF.
Instead PAF relies on Force multipliers , countermeasures and superior mission planning.
Indian SU-30 MKI entire fleet cannot talk to their AWACS , as Phalcons are western tech with Link 16, and SU-30 are Russian tech and does not have capability of direct communication with AWACS.
Pakistan has an edge in this aspect, and thats what won PAF the May 2025 air battle.

 

[Falcon26]

By 2028, the year I expect another shootdown with Pakistan, the IAF will have 76 Rafael [AF + navy], with 69 available. From 250 Su-30MKI with a 70% availability rate, 175+ Su-30MKI can be available. That makes 244 fighter planes. Add 40 or so Tejas, and you have 284 fighters. Now, if you count Mirage 2000 with 80% availability and MiG 29 with 60% availability, the max comes out to be 364. Not counting Jaguar in this number. Compare that to PAF, F-16, J-10C, and JF-17 blk 3 with 90% availability, that is 127. Add JF-17 blk 2 + blk 1 with 80% availability, the numbers will be 211 plus 40 J-35 to make it 251. So the equation will be 251 to 364 fighters. PAF will be 70% of the strength of IAF with 5th-gen fighters to dominate. Add 13 PAF AEWCS and 6 EW platforms to 6 IAF AEWCS and 6 EW platforms, and you have a complete picture. Still seems to be in favor of PAF.

PAF has only 3 standoff EW jammers not 6.

 

[ThoroughPro]

PAF has only 3 standoff EW jammers not 6.

No one knows, you are referring to the old gen Mr. Lodhi class three small ones (I am forgetting the plane name)

 

[Aamir Hussain]

2 x Dassault Falcon DA 20 ( Iqbal & Lodhi) & in near future 1 x Bombardier Global 6000 (HAVASOJ). Most likely the four Karakoram Eagles to be be converted to EW platforms.

 

[safriz]

Pakistan must have a lot more EW / ELINT dedicated Platforms.
The way they had complete fingerprints of IAF jets was amazing,
From old British submariners tales, they had actual names of the Soviet submarines they were picking up on sonars.
They had means of analyzing the Sound signal wave by wave and could identify unique patterns to each enemy submarines, and tagged them with those unique sound patterns. For example a submarine with little dent on a side of the hull or a chip on the propeller will produce sound waves pertinent to those defects unique to that submarine.

I am assuming PAF has done similar wave pattern recognition and Tagging on IAF jets, by recording their transmissions in all radiowave spectrums. Thats how they were able to identify which exact serial number Rafale they were shooting down.