USA Weather Alert and Warnings Thread

[Davey Crockett]

Done that. The Hatfield-McCoy Trails, the outlaw ones too. Still many more to go, lots of great choices there.

Found a post of mine, February 2025.....

Can trace my lineage to the 13th passenger on the Mayflower.

Half a dozen or so American Revolutionary soldiers. A scout for Daniel Boone. Related to the McCoys of the infamous Hatfield/McCoy feud.

Distance cousin is President Richard Nixon.


I suppose in any lingering Hatfield/McCoy feud, I take the McCoy side.

 

[Davey Crockett]

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[VCheng]

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It is even more fun at night.

(BTW that was pretty mild paced. I have reached triple digits on both two wheels and four on the Tail)

 

[Davey Crockett]

Latest photo of the Tree of Shame along the Tail of the Dragon.

My friend "Red" lived to contribute parts from two motorcycle accidents on tree in photo.

Red often raced the Tail at high speeds.

Lol! Bright red parts under the Tree of Shame sign is from Red's first motorcycle accident.

 

[VCheng]

View attachment 175360

Latest photo of the Tree of Shame along the Tail of the Dragon.

My friend "Red" lived to contribute parts from two motorcycle accidents on tree in photo.

Red often raced the Tail at high speeds.

Yup. Many have left parts there, and worse, were helviacced out of there, if they were lucky. A friend of mine broke a few vertebrae in her back on her 600. That road does not forgive at all.

 

[Davey Crockett]

Yup. Many have left parts there, and worse, were helviacced out of there, if they were lucky. A friend of mine broke a few vertebrae in her back on her 600. That road does not forgive at all.

Forget exactly where along the Tail, on the Tennessee side, one of our trucks went off the side of the mountain.


It's still there.

 

[VCheng]

Forget exactly where along the Tail, on the Tennessee side, one of our trucks went off the side of the mountain.
View attachment 175365

It's still there.

Well, there is a reason US129 has truck restrictions. On the south side, if the trees don't get you, the cliffs will.

 

[ghazi52]

Winter Storm

Why Northeast Winter Storms Can Be Difficult To Forecast​

Population density, differences in temperatures and the tracks of winter storms can bring major uncertainties into the forecast.​

By weather.com meteorologists

When a winter storm is threatening the East Coast, you'll hear the word "uncertainty" from meteorologists in the days leading up to the storm.

There are signs in the models for a potentially significant snowstorm, but the important details on track, timing and strength remain unclear and will determine where and how much snow falls.

That's probably frustrating, since you want specifics. However, it's the nature of the setup along the East Coast that can often create difficulties in determining whether you'll see a foot of snow or a slushy inch followed by rain.

1. Major Population At Stake​

First and foremost, the population potentially impacted by a winter storm in the Northeast Megalopolis is huge, topping 50 million people.

The amount of attention and scrutiny snowfall forecasts draw in the Northeast is equally as large, given the massive impact on schools, businesses and commerce.

With so much at stake, subtle differences in the track and evolution of a storm can be the difference between a high, moderate or low-impact event. These impacts not only affect those in the Northeast but can also send ripples of disruption into other parts of the country by disrupting transportation.

Compare that to a similarly difficult forecast situation in a lower-population region of the U.S., where the scrutiny and impacts are far less.

2. Blame The Atlantic Ocean​

The Interstate 95 corridor's close proximity to the Atlantic Ocean can take some of the blame for the difficult snowstorm forecasts in the Northeast.

In coastal storm setups, the Megalopolis can be a battleground between cold air over land and relatively mild air over the Atlantic Ocean.

Which air mass wins out and for how long can be the difference between a walloping snowstorm near the coast or a messy mix of precipitation.

Another hurdle: intensifying low-pressure systems can create their own cold air through a process called dynamic cooling. This can counteract the warmer Atlantic air, allowing precipitation to remain in the form of snow.

The I-95 corridor can be a battleground between cold air in place over land and relatively warmer air pulled in by the coastal low-pressure system.

 

[ghazi52]

3. The Track Of The Low And The 40/70 Benchmark​

To determine if the cold air or milder Atlantic air wins out, meteorologists examine the track of the coastal storm.

The track is critical, and forecast guidance can have trouble honing in on this until within 24 hours of a storm.

Meteorologists often talk about the so-called 40/70 benchmark, which means 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude, which is roughly 80 miles south of Nantucket Island.

In general, when cold air is available over the Northeast, a low tracking through this general point on the globe is in the sweet spot for delivering a major snowstorm to at least parts of the Northeast.

If computer models consistently paint this low-pressure track, it raises the confidence of a Northeast snowstorm forecast.

 

[ghazi52]

4. The Problematic Tracks​

Many forecast situations have a lower-confidence track of coastal low-pressure systems that are either west or east of the 40/70 benchmark. What's more, forecast guidance can be erratic in the days leading up to a storm, painting several different low track scenarios.

When this occurs, forecast confidence can be much lower.

A track to the west of the benchmark typically ushers in warmer Atlantic air. How far inland that warmer air penetrates can be difficult to diagnose and makes for a frustrating rain/snow line forecast.

If the low tracks west of the benchmark, then the rain/snow line may set up near the coast or just inland. This setup typically brings rain to the immediate coast and snow farther inland.

Storms can sometimes have a snowfall gradient that ranges from a couple of inches to a foot over a distance spanning tens of miles. Where that sets up is the key difference between a high- and low-impact event, and that can be the case in a large metro area such as New York City.

A storm that tracks east of the 40/70 benchmark can result in a close call with only a brushing of snowfall on immediate coastal areas and little to no snow in the Northeast interior.

 

[ghazi52]

5. The Finer Details​

There are some finer details that sometimes can't be determined until a storm is actually ongoing.

First is the potential for banding snowfall during storms where the coastal low-pressure system is undergoing significant intensification. When these bands of heavy snow exist, they can bring snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour, locally enhancing snowfall totals in a storm.

One such example is the Blizzard of 2006 (Feb. 11-12, 2006) that had an arcing band of heavier snow that set up right over New York City. It dropped 11 inches of snow on the Big Apple in three hours, vaulting the storm total to 26.9 inches at Central Park.

Another important detail, sometimes not resolved until a storm is underway, is what meteorologists call a dry slot.

As its name implies, the dry slot is a punch of dry air on the eastern flank of a developing coastal storm. This dry air can cut off moisture and greatly reduce snowfall amounts in some areas compared to what was originally forecast.

 

[Davey Crockett]

Well, there is a reason US129 has truck restrictions. On the south side, if the trees don't get you, the cliffs will.

Much respect goes to the concrete truck drivers who hauled concrete from my plant in Maryville to many spots in the Smokies.

Primarily Matthew and Tubby, five yards at a time (half load), backing up the long steep trail to Clingman's Dome.

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[Davey Crockett]

 

[VCheng]

We have no temperature left. The thermometer reads a big fat ZERO.

 

[Davey Crockett]

Going to be 4°F tomorrow morning.

Nine days without running water. This coming Monday, may be able to turn the water back on.

Nearly everyone I talked to now has frozen water lines.