Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Watandar]

Khamenei is 86. There’s no need to drag the US into a long conflict to take him out.

Even taking him out won’t cause regime change. This is netanyahus doing. He wants to use Trump to cause as much damage and chaos as possible and take Iran back a couple decades. He wants civil war and chaos.

Did age spare Sheikh Ahmed Yassin ? He was a quadriplegic too. It's the Israelis running the show and their doctrine is one of revenge. Back in the secular PLO PFLP days the Israelis would follow up years later to kill whoever was against them at a particular time.

No doubt Israel wants a fragmented weak Iran in civil war but that plan was foiled in early January. What is possible now is assassination.

 

[mangekyo]

Did age spare Sheikh Ahmed Yassin ? He was a quadriplegic too. It's the Israelis running the show and their doctrine is one of revenge. Back in the secular PLO PFLP days the Israelis would follow up years later to kill whoever was against them at a particular time.

No doubt Israel wants a fragmented weak Iran in civil war but that plan was foiled in early January. What is possible now is assassination.

How does khameneis assassination help the Israelis? Iran isn’t some rag tag militia that will collapse when Khamenei dies.

 

[Watandar]

How does khameneis assassination help the Israelis? Iran isn’t some rag tag militia that will collapse when Khamenei dies.

For the Israelis, it would fulfill their doctrine of revenge, help Netanyahu in re-election later this year and close the chapter on Oct 7th.

 

[Persian Gulf]

How does khameneis assassination help the Israelis? Iran isn’t some rag tag militia that will collapse when Khamenei dies.

it plunges IRI into chaos because there is no ready replacement

and rule by a leadership council will struggle to replace a leader which has the strong support of c. 20% of the population

 

[Shags101]

How does khameneis assassination help the Israelis? Iran isn’t some rag tag militia that will collapse when Khamenei dies.

If anything helps Iran if they actually did take him out one it would be a rallying cry for many Shias Shias who aren’t even Iranian and second hardliners in the irgc who had to pretend he has control over them in order not to upset certain segments of their society

 

[925boy]

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speculation on method of attack

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Shamkhani says Iran will strike Tel Aviv if the US attacks. guaranteeing that Israel and the US will both be involved, as before

US having no element of surprise, and actually being very predictable will be a disadvantage in this war. Pls remember I said this. China and Russia alao helping Iran actively now is a another plot twist- more advanced weapons and ammunition have arrived in Iran, so there has not been an effective arms embargo( which would give US an advantage against Iran), in place against Iran for many months now.

 

[StrategicBear]

If US uses exotic weapons like Sound or Frequency weapons in this war(considering the reports from Venezuela about the Maduro capture), Iran can retaliate with EMP warheads taking out US and Israeli power grids too.

 

[Watandar]

If US uses exotic weapons like Sound or Frequency weapons in this war(considering the reports from Venezuela about the Maduro capture), Iran can retaliate with EMP warheads taking out US and Israeli power grids too.

Sir please stay rooted in ground realities.

 

[BigMela2onin]

My friend. There are always people on top of the food chain. The bottomfeeders might have nothing to lose. But the people on top have everything to lose.

They are losing it though, their children are no longer welcome in western universities and soon they will be unwelcome in Europe entirely. Stopping oil exports is removing their source of wealth. Kidnapping Maduro was an escalation against those on top. It was easy for the elite to stomach the death of some military officers if it meant their way of life continues but it's no longer the case.
This isn't the age where deposed leaders go into exile in a foreign country. They are facing prison or death, they have more incentive than ever to fight.

 

[aerospace_enthusiast_newb]

If the U.S. takes out Iran's oil / gas installations and Iran retaliates either by taking out oil /gas installations in the Persian Gulf monarchies, because the government has concluded that Iran will starve without oil / gas production. How would the U.S. open the Persian Gulf again? Where would they refurbish / maintain / restock their naval vessels? They'd have to exit the threat envelope.

The Persian Gulf is narrow and shallow. Iran has thousands of SRBMs. They are almost all solid-fuel and low CEP / terminally guided. Add to that cruise missiles and drones. How would the U.S. actually open the Persian Gulf to commericial traffic? I don't know. The only way would be if the U.S. is capable of taking out Iran's C2 (including local, autonomous commanders). Difficult, considering their experience with the Houthis.

 

[Immortals]

IRI has decided to respond strongly to any US strike because:

1) it now realises the threat is existential to its survival, and cannot simply be considered a tactical exchange of blows

Wow they Realized this only after:

• Hundreds of officers/generals dying in syria due to air strikes
• Solemani assassination
• Iran Embassy being bombed
• Countless sabotage acts inside Iran
• Countless nuclear scientist killed
• Fakhrizadeh assassination
• Hezbollah decapitation
• Syria falling
• 12 day war
• Nuclear program being blown up
• A large Assassination attempt on political officials during the war by bombing their bunker
• Threats of asssination against Iran’s leader

Shamkhani says Iran will strike Tel Aviv if the US attacks. guaranteeing that Israel and the US will both be involved, as before

Why does this Sound like Iran doesn’t plan to strike the U.S. and instead strike Israel to“punish” the U.S.

Shamkhani never had any guts.

 

[Bharatah]

If US uses exotic weapons like Sound or Frequency weapons in this war(considering the reports from Venezuela about the Maduro capture), Iran can retaliate with EMP warheads taking out US and Israeli power grids too.

This doesn't exist, my friend, it's fake news. If it did exist, they (in the Biden administration) would have used these weapons to immobilize Russian defenses in Ukrainian territory and expel them, or they would have used them to paralyze the Houthis in the naval battle of Yemen.

In Venezuela, as anywhere else, what exists is espionage, corruption, betrayal, that's it. That's why China announced the arrest of a high-ranking general for passing nuclear data to the US, and there's a rumor that there were shootings in Beijing and that this general was going to try to stage a coup in China, working with the CIA. That's what the CIA does well.

 

[Bharatah]

it plunges IRI into chaos because there is no ready replacement

and rule by a leadership council will struggle to replace a leader which has the strong support of c. 20% of the population

I disagree with you, my friend.

1st = You made a mistake by repeating one of the oldest Zionist fake news stories, which is "only 20% of the people support the government," that's on the level of "40 beheaded babies."

2st = Kameney is an elderly man of almost 90 years old, who is physically disabled and has to take a series of medications and medical care. Kameney has less power in Iran than Putin in Russia, Erdogan in Turkey, or Maduro in Venezuela. He is a symbol and will normally be replaced by another symbol in the future (since, regardless of assassination attempts, he is already almost senile). Iran has more than 15 million theologians , and there are many others living abroad; remember that Ayatollah Khomeini came from France(1979) to Iran, this could also happen if necessary.

The US plan would be to kill or kidnap him and create another "victory narrative" in the media, but in practice (in the long term) it could have the opposite effect :

1- Iran's atomic bomb would be free to happen (if it hasn't already happened and only needs the official announcement).

2. It opens the door to the assassination of Netanyahu and other Zionist leaders.

3. It radicalizes Iran and Muslims in general (even Sunnis), leading to a race for revenge and arms race because Western media portray it as a "defeat of Islam".

 

[Immortals]

How does khameneis assassination help the Israelis? Iran isn’t some rag tag militia that will collapse when Khamenei dies.

it plunges IRI into chaos because there is no ready replacement

and rule by a leadership council will struggle to replace a leader which has the strong support of c. 20% of the population

If Khamenai is assassinated, it’s hard to see how the Supreme Leader led (Velāyat-e Faqih) Republic will survive. When the leader of your country is murdered like he is some Al-Queda or ISIS leader it hurts the foundation of the revolution. It dilutes the message. It sows doubt into the system. It sows fear. It gives rise to treachery and corruption.

So while Iran can remain a republic, it can no longer rely on the Velāyat-e Faqih as its foundation. It will likely use the event to rise to military rule to “avenge” the old system or it will implode and the strongest faction will win.

Was Stalin assassinated? Was Mao assassinated? Was Chavez assassinated? Was Castro Assassinated? Was Mussolini assassinated? Was Napoleon assassinated? Was Kim Jung Un’s father or grandfather asssinated?

Again, It just doesn’t happen in strong long lasting central figure based systems.

 

[kastor ville]

it plunges IRI into chaos because there is no ready replacement

and rule by a leadership council will struggle to replace a leader which has the strong support of c. 20% of the population

I believe there won't be another supreme leader after the old man dies......I think even the deep state knows how damaging it is to have a guy with seminary education dictating the direction of the country. "Apres Moi Deluge"

They are losing it though, their children are no longer welcome in western universities and soon they will be unwelcome in Europe entirely. Stopping oil exports is removing their source of wealth. Kidnapping Maduro was an escalation against those on top. It was easy for the elite to stomach the death of some military officers if it meant their way of life continues but it's no longer the case.
This isn't the age where deposed leaders go into exile in a foreign country. They are facing prison or death, they have more incentive than ever to fight.

Trump is like a bully in high school...he picks on the weak, as a show of force, every week a different victim, till one day he picks on the wrong kid, and that kid punches him square in the nose...and then he'll realize he's not so tough.