Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Yasser76]

That is where you are wrong. Economic strangulation is doing its job very well:

The people themselves are reaching a breaking point. Denying that is only foolish. Ignoring the economy any further will be fatal for the current setup.

No one is reaching breaking point. Israel and US are trying to convince the world they are.

 

[VCheng]

and if investors lose faith in the dollar

That is a crucial IF. How likely is it? It depends on who you ask, I suppose.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

There can be no "war" in the classic sense of the word. We will see more air strikes. Iran has absorbed these in the past and will absorb them again. Already Iranians are talking to the entire neighbourhood, possibly even signalling to places like Qatar, UAE and Bahrain what strikes to expect on US bases on their soil.

US will strike, not achieve much and Iran will strike back and probably not achieve much. Both sides will look strong to their population.

Unless you send a lot of boots on the ground you cannot defeat Iran. Even that will be no guarantor of success.

What is going on is partly show and partly negotiation tactics

For Iran it's easier to put boots on ground, to Invade Qatar or Bahrain. Those sheikhdoms will be responsible for material and infrastructural damage and probably cacualties on Iranian side. Iran should change it's defensive policy into an offensive one and dismantle the colonial bases there and any chance of rebuilding them.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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Araghchi is meeting with Fidan and Erdogan in Turkey now

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

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Opinions?

Iran already offered American companies up to 1 or 2 trillion investment opportunities before they bombed Iran.

 

[VCheng]

No one is reaching breaking point.

It is easy to say that when you have GBP or USD in your pocket, but tell that to the people who have IRR in theirs:

 

[Persian Gulf]

That is a crucial IF. How likely is it? It depends on who you ask, I suppose.

the situation is already unsustainable even if the USD maintains its current position. but I contend the dollar is not likely to maintain its position, and will continue to be inflated away and lose investor confidence.

two charts tell the story:



30 year treasury (bond) yield (i.e., this is the cost of borrowing money / issuing debt for the US government)

1.3% in 2020
4.88% in 2026



central bank reserves

central banks are increasingly buying gold instead of US debt (Treasuries)

 

[VCheng]

the situation is already unsustainable even if the USD maintains its current position. but I contend the dollar is not likely to maintain its position, and will continue to be inflated away and lose investor confidence.

We can but wait and see. We can take this part of the discussion into a more appropriate thread.

 

[Persian Gulf]

It is easy to say that when you have GBP or USD in your pocket, but tell that to the people who have IRR in theirs:

View attachment 175684

every currency is subject to erosion of purchasing power over time

Over the last 100 years, the US Dollar has lost 95% of its purchasing power. and that is without economic warfare being imposed by the world's superpower and the economy being run by corrupt incompetent clerics

 

[Persian Gulf]

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high value targets

 

[hussain0216]

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[Yasser76]

For Iran it's easier to put boots on ground, to Invade Qatar or Bahrain. Those sheikhdoms will be responsible for material and infrastructural damage and probably cacualties on Iranian side. Iran should change it's defensive policy into an offensive one and dismantle the colonial bases there and any chance of rebuilding them.

Iran is, I am sure sending a stern message. Places like Dubai and Doha (and to a lesser extent Manama) are projecting themselves as tourist and financial hubs with world class airlines. Their economies are increasingly dependent on non Hydrocarbon more and more, even Saudis are getting in on the act. Missiles raining down on them will effectively close their countries and economies. They know this, Iran knows this, US knows this.

Now in all realism there is nothing much the Qataris, Emiratis or Bahrainis can do to stop the US using the bases on the territory. It is not black and white unfortunately. UAE/Qatar/Bahrain cannot confront the US.

Best they can do is deny air space. Iran is shrewd enough to appreciate this.

Trump is all show. He loves symbolism and gestures. My guess is the Iranians may pay him back in the same coin with the destruction of something significant but not something that may force Trump to escalate but rather try and do a deal.

This can be either disabling but not destroying the USS Ab Lincoln, capturing a US oil tanker or maybe even the complete destruction by missile attack of the US 5th fleet HQ

 

[Persian Gulf]

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Iran's military drills in the Persian Gulf scheduled for Sunday-Monday effectively close the Strait of Hormuz by covering the 'Jask Corridor' route

 

[hussain0216]

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[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

Sad to see that under direction from Tel Aviv the USA has evolved into a barbarian. Civilised folk everywhere, even those who still exist in USA itself, will be backing Iran to defend itself and teach them a lesson.

the situation is already unsustainable even if the USD maintains its current position. but I contend the dollar is not likely to maintain its position, and will continue to be inflated away and lose investor confidence.

two charts tell the story:

View attachment 175682

30 year treasury (bond) yield (i.e., this is the cost of borrowing money / issuing debt for the US government)

1.3% in 2020
4.88% in 2026

View attachment 175683

central bank reserves

central banks are increasingly buying gold instead of US debt (Treasuries)

this is all made up

no one knows the exact amount of gold reserves USA has