I did not expand the offensive punch yet, but sure, please share your scenarios. I will try to document mine next time. I also found that 2 JF17C with Link 17 and AEWCS can neutralize 1 Rafael. If I pitch 4 vs 4, the fight becomes pretty even against Rafael. 1 x 1 JF17 with Su30MKI is a problem. Make it 4 x 4, and JF17C can decimate SU30MKI. Even in 2 x 2 scenarios, it becomes even. I also found that AEWCS and ground-based air defenses like HQ9B and HQ16FE are part of the defense. My final assertion is that J10C with JF17C can help PAF achieve air superiority, especially over Kashmir, which would leave the Indian Army at the mercy of Pakistan within 3-5 days of the conflict. If PAF deploys J10C in numbers like 100, IAF is pretty much done even with 100 Rafael. If PAF deploys 40 J35A and 36 J10C, plus 30 JF17C, supported by 75 F17 and 135 JF17A/B, IAF is pretty much done even with 150 Rafael, supported by ground-based missiles, etc. I also found that PL15 is a game changer, and PL17, when inducted, will also change the air battle completely. I also try all sorts of scenario where IAF come on top but PAF is never decimated. i need to add drones to my model in air warfare.
I would add and substrat a few thingd
1) jf-17 block 2-3 out range everything in the IAF at this point
2) f-16s with the new upgrade and Posible sale of aim-120d and possibly aim-260 a as documented in the release package to the us congress will enhance capability in terms of strike and range. Even with the link 16 upgrades we have the ability to change targets with aim-120c in flight with the Swiss sourced awacs we fly.
3) I beleive we will go to 60-100 j-10c as a strike / mirage replacement platform but we will see a maximum of 45 -60 aircraft by 2028
4)45 j-35a is what I think is on order 3 squadrons, focus will be some air superiority but mostly deep strike for SEAD, C&C nodes and most of all major rail infrastructure to disrupt Indian resupply, logistics and mobilization.
4)the best time for the conflict from a Pakistani , Chinese perspective would be 2028 sep/ winter , better time would be 2027 sep/ winter , ok time would be 2026 sep/ winter
5) in later years our drone MALE and HALE inventories will be doubled and intgrersted which would mean CAS missions will be flown by Army aviation and PAF, freeing up manned aircraft which can then focus on air superiority and high intensity misssions. India is too far behind here to catch up
6) more air defence systems will be purchased and integrated into Pakistani doctrine. Indias supply in this areas is very limited, no us patriots and no Russian s-400 deliveries.
My key assumption is that the Russia Ukraine war will end by Dec 2026 with a signifiant Russian victory. This would mean that Russian industry will first start focusing on re arming themselves as Europe will be re arming. Then by 2029, 2030 we can see Russia filling its export orders.
7) finally I see Pakistan navy have at least 4 -6 new subs , surface fleet with 2 -4 more ships inducted and sea sultan active. Also I see the second fully capable ford class sized Chinese carrier being inducted ensuring that only 30% of the total Indian fleet can be used against Pakistan, this would include all the escorts they would need to run to protect Indian shipping in the Arabian Sea. We only need to sink or attack 3 ships , forcing India to put more ships from the 30% of thier force to escort shipping. All of indias’s oil comes from the Middle East passing Pakistani territory in the Arabian Sea.
Finally 40% of the Indian navy will need to be on the Bangladesh side to stop a possible Chinese invasion, imagine if the Chinese park a carrier strike group near Bangladesh with over 80 aircraft on the carrier , IAF can only dedicated 50-40% of thier Ariel assets against Pakistan.
The remaining navy 30% is in dry docks or used for coastal defence of the rest of the Indian coast line
Finally the elephant sorry I mean dragon in the room is India’s complete exposure to Chinese , satelite ISR and satelite based signal jamming and intelligence. Any major large formation movement will be known to Pakistan, they will also know the location of all high value targets throughout India. This will remove the element of surprise for India like it did for ukrine against Russia.
Kv