Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Persian Gulf]

Would it not be better to just shoot at Israel and the GCC oil rather than engaging with US forces ? The same results of regional pain will be achieved and you know and I know behind the scenes who has pushed the US to fight Iran since 1980 and sabotaged every rapprochement.

US destroyers should be the first target as they provide movable offensive and defensive capability

then the US bases

and then once the US' ability to attack and defend is depleted, and Trump still wants to continue, more drastic measures can be considered

Hezbollah could attack ships in the Med, Houthis could disrupt the Gulf of Aden again, and Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz

if this happens simultaneously, the shock to the global economy would be pretty significant and Trump would come under big pressure to end the war

 

[Watandar]

US destroyers should be the first target as they provide movable offensive and defensive capability

then the US bases

The best Iran can do is shoot at US bases and hit something there. Iran may be able to damage or destroy one ship of the US Navy , it cannot do anything against the rest, I am sorry.

and then once the US' ability to attack and defend is depleted, and Trump still wants to continue, more drastic measures can be considered

US ability to attack and defend is not dependent on the few ships currently in the Gulf. The only real constraint here is Mr Trump does not want to be trapped in another forever neocon war.

Hezbollah could attack ships in the Med, Houthis could disrupt the Gulf of Aden again, and Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz

Hezbollah is finished. Houthis may disrupt traffic a bit but nothing beyond what they did last time. Iran Navy and air force will have the daylights beaten out of it if it tries to "Close the Straits of Hormuz". Be realistic.

if this happens simultaneously, the shock to the global economy would be pretty significant and Trump would come under big pressure to end the war

The shock to global economy will only come from hitting the huge investment of American Jews in Israel, like the Intel factories and especially the oil infrastructure of the GCC. That Iran has the ability to do with its capable missiles arsenal. Rest of what you are thinking are fantasies.

I say this as a well wisher of Iran.

 

[Garcia Sea]

Why are they so easily deceived?
What happened after signing the JCPOA? Why do they forget what happened last June because they fell for false negotiations?
Some conservatives in the US lament that Iran is too weak and foolish to stop the war.
Among MAGA supporters, there's growing confusion that Iran is too spineless, forcing them to take down their anti war signs.
Now conservatives believe Iran is playing its hand too poorly, leaving no room for negotiation—making invasion the only option.

 

[Shags101]

The best Iran can do is shoot at US bases and hit something there. Iran may be able to damage or destroy one ship of the US Navy , it cannot do anything against the rest, I am sorry.

US ability to attack and defend is not dependent on the few ships currently in the Gulf. The only real constraint here is Mr Trump does not want to be trapped in another forever neocon war.

Hezbollah is finished. Houthis may disrupt traffic a bit but nothing beyond what they did last time. Iran Navy and air force will have the daylights beaten out of it if it tries to "Close the Straits of Hormuz". Be realistic.

The shock to global economy will only come from hitting the huge investment of American Jews in Israel, like the Intel factories and especially the oil infrastructure of the GCC. That Iran has the ability to do with its capable missiles arsenal. Rest of what you are thinking are fantasies.

I say this as a well wisher of Iran.

Honestly it really depends how much Iran can fire off in consecutive waves if it can be built my man it can be destroyed by man.

Cole was nearly destroyed by improvised explosives

Stark was nearly destroyed by iexocet missiles(they weren’t expecting it but shows you these boats can be damaged and taken out of action)

The Israeli corvette that was put out of action in 2006(let’s assume in 20 years Iran has been able to upgrade these missiles)

Houthis have shown limited capability but have shown at least in theory that Iran has the ability to destroy or damage ships yes merchant ships aren’t in the same class as warships but shows you that Iran which is far more capable could do what Houthis couldn’t do with limited firepower compare to iran.

 

[Persian Gulf]

The best Iran can do is shoot at US bases and hit something there. Iran may be able to damage or destroy one ship of the US Navy , it cannot do anything against the rest, I am sorry.

there are currently 3-5 US destroyers only 200km away from Iran docked in Bahrain and not moving.

please explain to me why Iran cannot hit these ships with:

- air launched anti ship cruise missiles launched at stand off range by F-4 / F-14 / MiG-29 fighter jets near coast of Iran
- 20+ Ghadir subs patrolling Persian Gulf which only need to get within 10km
- UUVs and unmanned drone ships
- land based ASCM/ASBMs launched in large numbers

they don't need to be sunk. even one small hit by a drone would render it out of commission and remove their anti missile capabilities for a few months, which is long enough.

US ability to attack and defend is not dependent on the few ships currently in the Gulf. The only real constraint here is Mr Trump does not want to be trapped in another forever neocon war.

we can assume high rate of interception but key targets like oil fields and dense air bases don't need many hits

US abandoned Al Udeid base before it attacked Iran in June, we can assume it would also abandon most of its personnel from the key bases near Iran if there is a war

then the US is left with a CSG in the North Arabian Sea, which can be harassed by Fateh/Kilo subs + long range ASCMs + long range ASBMs + drones + container based ballistic missiles launched by container ships etc. even if they are not hit, which I accept is difficult, we saw how Yemen was able to harass them enough to make them lose 3 F-18 fighter jets in a short time and abandon that war.

and strategic long range bombers like B-2 but these have low sortie rate and if used with too much confidence can lead to shock loss, which could embarrass the US and make it end the war prematurely (these fluke events are unpredictable)

Hezbollah is finished. Houthis may disrupt traffic a bit but nothing beyond what they did last time. Iran Navy and air force will have the daylights beaten out of it if it tries to "Close the Straits of Hormuz". Be realistic.

IRIN + IRGC-N and IRIAF don't need to survive long. just long enough to get important initial blows in (hitting 5 US destroyers in the Persian Gulf), rest can be done from protected and dispersed ground launchers.

Hezbollah is severely degraded but not finished, their SG said recently if the US goes to war with Iran, they will intervene. they still have missile bases in the north and continue to smuggle weapons from Syria. it's now or never. they can attack shipping in the Med while Ansarallah disrupts shipping in the Gulf of Aden and Iran disrupts shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The impact of these simultaneous disruptions to key shipping lanes will be significant and you only need a small number of semi regular attacks on shipping to lead to a huge increase in insurance premiums and in gas prices. if this is sustained for weeks, you can't imagine significant pressure growing on TACO Trump to end the war?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Why are they so easily deceived?
What happened after signing the JCPOA? Why do they forget what happened last June because they fell for false negotiations?
Some conservatives in the US lament that Iran is too weak and foolish to stop the war.
Among MAGA supporters, there's growing confusion that Iran is too spineless, forcing them to take down their anti war signs.
Now conservatives believe Iran is playing its hand too poorly, leaving no room for negotiation—making invasion the only option.

so let's assume the US is determined to attack Iran. and will attack at some point in the next 2-4 weeks. what should Iran do now, in your opinion?

 

[Garcia Sea]

America's dominance doesn't rely solely on high tech weapons.
In Venezuela, the U.S. Air Force routinely flew within dozens of kilometers of Caracas. From there, it took only minutes to reach the president's location. There was no possibility of countering a sudden surprise attack.

America's advantage lies in exploiting opponents who wish to avoid war, always freely choosing the time, place, and purpose of conflict to launch surprise attacks.
After a unilateral surprise strike, they declare victory—repeating this cycle.
Yemen fought well because it took the initiative by sealing off the Red Sea.
Because of this, the U.S. military was forced to fight on Yemen's terms—on Yemen's chosen battlefield and timing, and with the passive objective of lifting the Red Sea blockade. Unable to seize the initiative, the U.S. military withdrew.

Had Yemen not taken the initiative, Trump would have suddenly launched a surprise attack on Sana'a, reduced it to scorched earth with a B-2 squadron, then unilaterally declared victory. Other nations would have trembled in fear before American military might.
The outcome of war is not determined solely by the superiority of weapons. The side that decides when, where, and for what purpose to initiate hostilities seizes the initiative.
That's why the U.S. desperately threatens others, vowing to reduce them to ruins if they fire even a single shot first ensuring they always strike first.

People in the Middle East, outside of Yemen, remain shockingly ignorant of this American approach to warfare.
It's common knowledge that in modern, sophisticated warfare, the side launching a surprise attack holds an absolute advantage. Winning defensively is impossible.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Houthis have shown limited capability but have shown at least in theory that Iran has the ability to destroy or damage ships yes merchant ships aren’t in the same class as warships but shows you that Iran which is far more capable could do what Houthis couldn’t do with limited firepower compare to iran.

Houthis "limited capability" led to US losing 3 F-18 jets from one carrier in a few months

imagine if they had less limited capability

A US Navy aircraft carrier that lost 3 fighter jets to the Red Sea is sailing home

The USS Harry S. Truman has experienced a string of mishaps amid its combat deployment, during which it battled the Houthis.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Arash]

That is a sign of the progress of diplomacy, I suppose. There is hope, then.

This is what was agreed under the jcpoa trump broke........

 

[Persian Gulf]

America's dominance doesn't rely solely on high tech weapons.
In Venezuela, the U.S. Air Force routinely flew within dozens of kilometers of Caracas. From there, it took only minutes to reach the president's location. There was no possibility of countering a sudden surprise attack.

America's advantage lies in exploiting opponents who wish to avoid war, always freely choosing the time, place, and purpose of conflict to launch surprise attacks.
After a unilateral surprise strike, they declare victory—repeating this cycle.
Yemen fought well because it took the initiative by sealing off the Red Sea.
Because of this, the U.S. military was forced to fight on Yemen's terms—on Yemen's chosen battlefield and timing, and with the passive objective of lifting the Red Sea blockade. Unable to seize the initiative, the U.S. military withdrew.

Had Yemen not taken the initiative, Trump would have suddenly launched a surprise attack on Sana'a, reduced it to scorched earth with a B-2 squadron, then unilaterally declared victory. Other nations would have trembled in fear before American military might.
The outcome of war is not determined solely by the superiority of weapons. The side that decides when, where, and for what purpose to initiate hostilities seizes the initiative.
That's why the U.S. desperately threatens others, vowing to reduce them to ruins if they fire even a single shot first ensuring they always strike first.

People in the Middle East, outside of Yemen, remain shockingly ignorant of this American approach to warfare.
It's common knowledge that in modern, sophisticated warfare, the side launching a surprise attack holds an absolute advantage. Winning defensively is impossible.

Japanese experience in WW2 and Hamas experience in 2023 suggests otherwise

Houthis did not launch a surprise attack on US forces but on commercial shipping

there is logic to seizing initiative and striking the US before it can bring its assets to the region, but this also brings huge costs and can lead to US led NATO coalition to launch military intervention in Iran, which is a disaster scenario and assures total destruction of Iran

 

[Garcia Sea]

No, making them think that is precisely America's tactic.
People in the Middle East should understand the salami tactic better.
They repeatedly launch attacks just enough to make the enemy think a full-scale war isn't worth it, then immediately cease fire, gradually carving away at the country piece by piece.
This is a tactic the West excels at; colonial rule was also achieved by slowly eroding national sovereignty in this manner.
Conversely, Iran should have learned from this tactic.
Iran should have repeatedly carried out small-scale drone incursions into Iraq and Jordan, minor attacks on merchant ships, and approaches to aircraft carriers – just enough to make the US think launching a full-scale war over this wasn't worth it.
Through this, Iran could have not only identified weaknesses in radar networks or depleted enemy missiles during peacetime, but most crucially, convinced the US that Iran is a formidable opponent who understands their logic. This would have forced them to the negotiating table for genuine, not false, talks.

 

[tower9]

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China is likely providing high resolution real time ISR to Iran

The fact that these images are being published out in the open is obviously a warning by China to the US, to think twice.

 

[925boy]

a deal is much easier to reach on nuclear issues considering Iran is no longer enriching uranium anyway

but the US also wants limits on missiles. and this is much harder to achieve since Iran will obviously not negotiate on this.

It seems like D Trump is on a mission from the "Zs" to knock out hostile anti- Israel regimes on an accelerated but shortened time frame, aka his 3 yrs left in office.

 

[Mero]

America's dominance doesn't rely solely on high tech weapons.
In Venezuela, the U.S. Air Force routinely flew within dozens of kilometers of Caracas. From there, it took only minutes to reach the president's location. There was no possibility of countering a sudden surprise attack.

America's advantage lies in exploiting opponents who wish to avoid war, always freely choosing the time, place, and purpose of conflict to launch surprise attacks.
After a unilateral surprise strike, they declare victory—repeating this cycle.
Yemen fought well because it took the initiative by sealing off the Red Sea.
Because of this, the U.S. military was forced to fight on Yemen's terms—on Yemen's chosen battlefield and timing, and with the passive objective of lifting the Red Sea blockade. Unable to seize the initiative, the U.S. military withdrew.

Had Yemen not taken the initiative, Trump would have suddenly launched a surprise attack on Sana'a, reduced it to scorched earth with a B-2 squadron, then unilaterally declared victory. Other nations would have trembled in fear before American military might.
The outcome of war is not determined solely by the superiority of weapons. The side that decides when, where, and for what purpose to initiate hostilities seizes the initiative.
That's why the U.S. desperately threatens others, vowing to reduce them to ruins if they fire even a single shot first ensuring they always strike first.

People in the Middle East, outside of Yemen, remain shockingly ignorant of this American approach to warfare.
It's common knowledge that in modern, sophisticated warfare, the side launching a surprise attack holds an absolute advantage. Winning defensively is impossible.

https://trendsinthenews.substack.com/p/ritter-if-i-were-the-decision-maker

Scott agrees with you.

 

[aerospace_enthusiast_newb]

Iran Navy and air force will have the daylights beaten out of it if it tries to "Close the Straits of Hormuz". Be realistic.

Why would Iran need their air force or navy to hit ships/seaports in the Persian Gulf? Why would they need an air force or navy to hit oil & gas production facilities in the Gulf?

I doubt the U.S. could prevent even the Iraqi PMF from hitting Kuwaiti oil & gas installations and seaport facilities. Iraqi militias hit the UAE in 2022.

Are they supposed to find & hit all the cruise missiles, ballistic missiles & drones deployed all over Iraq and Iran?

Let's say the Iranian navy and air force have their daylights beaten out of them, then what? How do you stop cruise missiles from being fired from Basra? Baghdad? Short-range ballistic missiles from anywhere in central Iran or central Iraq?