Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

One or both are doing a stalling game I can’t see Iran accepting the terms laid out sorry not terms demands it will be an attempt to castrate for a future war

Iran isn’t enriching. Hasn’t been for 7 months and likely won’t be able to for another 9-12 months.

So Iran has to see what it can get for agreeing to an extended freeze. What is Trump willing to offer Iran? What guarantees?

It all depends on what Trump is able to offer.

Right now Iran doesn’t have a nuclear program and it has some enriched uranium that would take 1-2 years to create a bomb from.

Trump wants a deal and is desperate to replace Obama’s JCPOA. Iran needs to use some common sense for next 3 years.

Chinese get it, Russians get it, Turks get it, Saudis get it, Venezuelans get it, only this leadership in Tehran doesn’t get it. They keep thinking they are negotiating with Bush, Obama, and Biden.

 

[جوبا]

It all depends on what Trump is able to offer.

his offer : peace for another year or two so the IRI can continue replenishing their depleted stocks from the last war with israel.
its classic bully behavior: I offer not to beat you up in exchange for your lunch

 

[Shags101]

Iran isn’t enriching. Hasn’t been for 7 months and likely won’t be able to for another 9-12 months.

So Iran has to see what it can get for agreeing to an extended freeze. What is Trump willing to offer Iran? What guarantees?

It all depends on what Trump is able to offer.

Right now Iran doesn’t have a nuclear program and it has some enriched uranium that would take 1-2 years to create a bomb from.

Trump wants a deal and is desperate to replace Obama’s JCPOA. Iran needs to use some common sense for next 3 years.

Chinese get it, Russians get it, Turks get it, Saudis get it, Venezuelans get it, only this leadership in Tehran doesn’t get it. They keep thinking they are negotiating with Bush, Obama, and Biden.

Problem is they’re not making this about nuclear issue they have added several extra things I agree nuclear issue is just for show now they want their missile program and etc they told Iranians they have no choice

 

[Shags101]

his offer : peace for another year or two so the IRI can continue replenishing their depleted stocks from the last war with israel.
its classic bully behavior: I offer not to beat you up in exchange for your lunch

basically that’s exactly the offer on the table guarantee you not even full sanctions taken off

 

[ShapurII]

his offer : peace for another year or two so the IRI can continue replenishing their depleted stocks from the last war with israel.
its classic bully behavior: I offer not to beat you up in exchange for your lunch

Which wouldn't change much for either the regime or the Iranians as Iran's main reason for negotiations with the US is imminent economic collapse. Without lifting sanctions, the regime will face regular recurrent nation-wide protests every few months or years until the whole system collapses.

I highly doubt that the US would give Iran a chance to recover from the sanctions. The negotiations are just another piece of the puzzle for the US to justify their future military actions against Iran.

 

[925boy]

US does not seem confident in its military options

It can deliver them but it doesn't seem confident in containing the fallout if it initiates such a war -- which is based on reality faulty pretext of helping protestors

But now suddenly the protestors don't matter and it's about Iran's ballistic missile technology

Iran is in a better position to just hold out and not budge

US will likely back down. Leaving Israel to do its own dirty work if it wants to. Which it won't do without major US defenses deployed in region and without US greenlight to back them up

Good points.

Can I just say this loudly now on pdf?
If Iran's missiles were ineffective and "not accurate " (accuracy matters, but deadliness matters way more)as a few active posters said during and after the operation True promise 2, then why the he'll would US assemble a large partof its military arsenal against Iran, to take put its ballistic missiles ,which it is unprepared to handle the fall out of a potential war with US?

My only conclusion is that Iran's missiles performed so well in the last exchanges Iran had with Israel, that US and israel are willing to risk losing a war with Iran in front of the world, just to try to neutralize the power of Iran's missiles.
This is confirmation that Iran's proof of concept related to its military doctrine heavily relying on missiles is valid and deadly for its enemies. The know-how cant be removed and neither can all the locations of missiles in Iran be destroyed. Us didnt even find all of saddams Scuds in the initial phase of the Iraq war,and saddam had a crude arsenal of missiles and a much smaller country to hide them than Iran.

 

[Shags101]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/security-cabinet-set-to-convene-at-4-p-m-tomorrow/

So can we expect an attack at 413

 

[جوبا]

Which wouldn't change much for either the regime or the Iranians as Iran's main reason for negotiations with the US is imminent economic collapse. Without lifting sanctions, the regime will face regular recurrent nation-wide protests every few months or years until the whole system collapses.

I highly doubt that the US would give Iran a chance to recover from the sanctions. The negotiations are just another piece of the puzzle for the US to justify their future military actions against Iran.

I think as long as there is no naval blockade the regime should be able to continue using the shadow fleet for oil exports and continue some semblance of growth.

 

[ShapurII]

I think as long as there is no naval blockade the regime should be able to continue using the shadow fleet for oil exports and continue some semblance of growth.

It doesn't matter because Iranian Rial is devaluing so fast that economic collapse is imminent. Just in the last 4 weeks since economic protests started, Iranian Rial has lost another 12% of its value against USD and devaluation isn't predicted to be stopped soon.

Today, when the news about cancellation of Friday's negotiation came, USD hit 170K IRR. Soon, USD will hit 200K IRR. Minimum wage in Iran at the moment is $87 per month and it is getting less and less every week. This trend is obviously not only unsustainable but already unbearable.

 

[Watandar]

Transnational capital has decided to end the forever war model and replace it with a new investment based model. Do you think all these companies, especially blackrock would invest in Gaza 2.0 if they didn’t think Middle East would be stable?

Yes , it does not need Middle East to be stable. You can steal millions, billions , trillions during a war or crisis like covid with zero accountability. It's not like Capital is going to put up their own money.

They need a stable Middle East. This mean no war, no proxies, no militias, no destabilization. No threat from either Iran or Israel. The last thing they want now is another destabilizing war with Iran (a real war, not a staged one). Iran either agrees to end militias, back off from Israel and make a deal with the US, or they will have to split Iran into smaller countries. This is what everyone’s trying to avoid. Including some factions in Iran who wants to accept the new Middle East model.

there is no "new" Mideast model. It's the same model as after WW1 where you are either strong or Western puppet or perish.

 

[Shags101]

I think as long as there is no naval blockade the regime should be able to continue using the shadow fleet for oil exports and continue some semblance of growth.

Those shadow fleets are barely keeping a country this size afloat and there won’t be a nav blockade because Iran won’t be able to accept that nor would neighboring countries because that would also be a declaration of war.

The only realistic thing America ca. do is board and seize ships that they believe have Iranian oil on it really not that hard just watch these ships on satellites than monitor them when they leave the Persian gulf than seize them but Iran wouldn’t stand for that either any ships near their coast would be seized as well we have seen that done in the past numerous times.

Another issue with American forces attempting to seize ships if they tried in the future is we can assume Iran will start stationing irgc forces to guard shipments sooner or later someone is going to not stand down

 

[eIsQengiz]

Total war is imminent.

Israel and the US will lose.

Because it's a numbers game.

Iran has an almost unlimited supply of missiles and drones of all sorts.

This will be the last war in the region for a long time.

Bless the people of Iran.

Stay safe.

This isn't a video game or a numbers game. A full-scale war wouldn't be a heroic resistance as a last resort; it would utterly destroy Iran. Years of infrastructure, power grids, industry, and civil development could be wiped out in weeks. The price would be paid by ordinary people, not politicians.

The best option is restraint, not escalation. Let reason prevail. Let them speak up before everything burns.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Thats what I was asking, what are they going to ship to a third party country is everything is already destroyed as per Trump.

the HEU stockpile is not destroyed, but buried under rubble. and any attempt to retrieve it will be spotted in real time

 

[Shags101]

This isn't a video game or a numbers game. A full-scale war wouldn't be a heroic resistance as a last resort; it would utterly destroy Iran. Years of infrastructure, power grids, industry, and civil development could be wiped out in weeks. The price would be paid by ordinary people, not politicians.

The best option is restraint, not escalation. Let reason prevail. Let them speak up before everything burns.

Not that I disagree but to be fair your not for Iran if Saudi Arabia turkey or any of what people call Sunni states were in the same predicament threatened today to weaken one of those countries enough to be conquered tomorrow would you agree to it because that’s all this is it’s a long term surrender prop up this lunatic wannabe shah

 

[Persian Gulf]

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The negotiations collapsed before they even started.

War it is?

Barak and Israeli channels lying as usual