Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Meengla]

1. The regime in Iran will not change course fundamentally and will continue to brutally suppress peaceful protests. The economy will get worse during this time. Protests will show up more often than before until the system is ready for implosion.
2. The US will attack Iran and resolve the last remaining threat of the Islamic Republic, i.e. its ballistic missiles before its final blow. After that, they will force the regime to accept all their conditions, or face new strikes and regime change. The regime will eventually be so weakened that either it will accept all the US conditions, or fall at the hands of the Iranians.

Thank you. But could you please sequence the events?? I am a little confused there.

The important thing is that Iran will be forced to stop being a revolutionary regime with Islamic ideology.

Iran's revolutionary zeal days are over. Time for the survival days. And I chuckle at the thought of brilliant people like Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, Larry C. Johnson, a certain retired old UK diplomat (name forgetting) who just two years ago were crowing about the Iranian military might to deter even America. They must all be eating humble pies because the equation now boils down to how many bodybags can Trump absorb to please Netanyahu.

 

[Serendipity]

your new leader went to Trump's new genocidal 'board of peace' along with Israel and started praising how peaceful Trump is while he threatens to attack Iran

what response did you expect from Iranians to that? don't take it so personally.

Feigning ignorance will not protect you. The Irania have been attacking their neighbour's long before that. And this is what is irksome. You want different standards applied to yourselves and different standards applied to others. And always a facade of ignorance to defend it when you know the truth. Oh im not the one taking it personally, I am well grounded on the shortcomings of our people. At least we have the courage to admit them.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Feigning ignorance will not protect you. The Irania have been attacking their neighbour's long before that. And this is what is irksome. You want different standards applied to yourselves and different standards applied to others. And always a facade of ignorance to defend it when you know the truth. Oh im not the one taking it personally, I am well grounded on the shortcomings of our people. At least we have the courage to admit them.

I am speaking in facts, you are speaking with emotion. You have not once attempted to engage with what your leader told Trump, constantly changing the subject to Iran's past misdeeds instead.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Only after we have settled our internal problems, we should start to think about negotiation with the US, or regional adventures.

they won't give us time for that, so that order will not work

I think everyone agrees IRI needs systematic reforms throughout the economy, political system, and society

no one appears strong enough or competent enough in the current system to make that happen

 

[ShapurII]

Let’s not be impatient. Impatience is what created this mess in the first place. We will die one day no matter what. What’s important is that Iran lives. I’d rather have Iran led by a shitty government as long as it’s unified than balkanize it. If Iran gets balkanized, we arent getting it back, ever. Let’s put our trust in the young and future generations of Iranians inside Iran.

Russia was in the worst situation after the October revolution and they had a period of civil war with foreign powers backing opposing factions. They eventually turned into a super power. I'm just saying that all countries go through tough times, but as long as people love their country, they can survive through such periods. As long as Iranians who love Iran are alive, Iran will never be destroyed.

And you completely ignore the fact that I'm just a single person. You should look at what the Iranian society wants. My opinion doesn't matter at all. People want change. And when the overwhelming majority of a country want something, it will eventually happen. There is no stopping this.

We had the worst initial attacks on our AD from inside our territory during the 12-day battle. Without popular support, it is impossible to fight against a powerful adversary.

 

[Persian Gulf]

@ShapurII @Mehdipersian I asked you to avoid personal insults

if you cannot manage that, just avoid each other

I don't want to issue thread bans to Iranians in such a time, so I ask that you don't force me to do that

thank you

 

[ShapurII]

they won't give us time for that, so that order will not work

I think everyone agrees IRI needs systematic reforms throughout the economy, political system, and society

no one appears strong enough or competent enough in the current system to make that happen

We had plenty of time for that. The Americans planned for all of this 20 years ago. We had 20 years of time to do something positive for the people, and we used every opportunity thrown at us to escape from that.

But honestly, even now is not late. All it takes is to change course fundamentally instead of resisting change and killing protestors.

They resisted change when Mahsa Amini hit the country. They eventually gave in, but the distrust and hatred between the establishment and the people did not go away because it was too little, too late.

And I'm afraid you are right. No one appears strong or competent enough to make fundamental reforms. That's why people feel desperate and are looking for a savior outside of Iran.

 

[ShapurII]

@ShapurII @Mehdipersian I asked you to avoid personal insults

if you cannot manage that, just avoid each other

I don't want to issue thread bans to Iranians in such a time, so I ask that you don't force me to do that

thank you

I will put him on my ignore list and refuse to engage him.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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With the Supreme Court of the US overturning Trump's tariffs, it renders his threat to impose 25% secondary tariffs on anyone buying Iranian oil legally void, since that used the same legal authority as the sanctions

 

[Ali_Baba]

Trump plans an initial limited attack, then to go back to negotiate, and then if Iran still unwilling to surrender to launch larger attacks. That sounds quite ridiculous to me as if Iran will just sit there and take blows and cooperate with Trump's plans. This is likely disinformation.

Trump considering initial limited strike against Iran, source says

Trump says "bad things" will happen if deal isn’t reached.

abcnews.com

Dropsite news article that talked about a much larger American attack that involves decapitation of political and military leadership and large scale destruction of nuke/missile infrastructure seems more plausible. Then US leaves and Israel comes into the picture.

The Americans are "putting" this "out there" to confuse the decision making process in Iran and its response cycle. They will want to lull the Iranian government into a false sense of security of "wait and see" based on confusing information that there may be a small attack first and use that "time window of confusion/wait and see" to launch a massive attack that decapitates the entire system before the Iranians "catch up" and "realise" what is going on.

Everything coming out of America right now should be totally ignored. Assume a full frontal assault and work off that basis, everything else is horse sh*t ..

 

[Persian Gulf]

- US GDP growth came in much lower than expected, and Trump is already blaming Democrats and crying about interest rates again

- Trump's tariffs were just deemed illegal by the Supreme Court, throwing his entire financial-geopolitical strategy into disarray and uncertainty

- Only a tiny proportion (14%) of the US population supports war with Iran

- the World Cup is in June and the mid term elections are in November

- Trump is very sensitive to oil prices and Iran has signalled it would focus its attacks on oil installations and the Strait of Hormuz (might be seen as yet another bluff by Trump)

--

There are strong factors against Trump launching a massive war with Iran. Does not mean he will not do it but we should not ignore these factors either.

 

[mangekyo]

Russia was in the worst situation after the October revolution and they had a period of civil war with foreign powers backing opposing factions. They eventually turned into a super power. I'm just saying that all countries go through tough times, but as long as people love their country, they can survive through such periods. As long as Iranians who love Iran are alive, Iran will never be destroyed.

And you completely ignore the fact that I'm just a single person. You should look at what the Iranian society wants. My opinion doesn't matter at all. People want change. And when the overwhelming majority of a country want something, it will eventually happen. There is no stopping this.

We had the worst initial attacks on our AD from inside our territory during the 12-day battle. Without popular support, it is impossible to fight against a powerful adversary.

I’m also only one person and my opinions doesn’t matter. None of our opinions matter, we’re just discussing here.

Shahs Iran also had its fair share of problems, people with the exact same mentality as you got impatient and wanted a revolution. You see the results. Now you guys are getting impatient again and this time, not only do you want another revolution, you want foreign countries to bomb and even balkanize us if it leads to that as you admitted in your earlier post. I hope you really didn’t mean it.

We need to get rid of this mentality that if we disagree with the house we must burn it to the ground. This will lead us nowhere. As long as Iran is unified, it will rise again and take its natural place in the world.

 

[Meengla]

Russia was in the worst situation after the October revolution and they had a period of civil war with foreign powers backing opposing factions. They eventually turned into a super power.

You brought up Russia--and I brought up Stalin in one of my latest posts above pertaining to Iran. You see, Stalin not only raised an agrarian Tsarist Russia to great heights but also lifted the Central Asian 'Stans' and he did so brutally.
So your protestations about the recent protests in Iran need some contextualizing.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I’m also only one person and my opinions doesn’t matter. None of our opinions matter, we’re just discussing here.

Shahs Iran also had its fair share of problems, people with the exact same mentality as you got impatient and wanted a revolution. You see the results. Now you guys are getting impatient again and this time, not only do you want another revolution, you want foreign countries to bomb and even balkanize us if it leads to that as you admitted in your earlier post. I hope you really didn’t mean it.

We need to get rid of this mentality that if we disagree with the house we must burn it to the ground. This will lead us nowhere. As long as Iran is unified, it will rise again and take its natural place in the world.

Agree entirely

Iranians are too radical and complain too much. This is somewhat IRI's fault since those stupid clerics promised everyone free oil and free food etc during the revolution (why should Iranians pay for this when we are such a rich nation etc). add the influence of social media (homogenous world culture and desire to fit in with the dominant western culture) and billions spent on influence campaigns and the media war, and you see the result.

 

[ShapurII]

I’m also only one person and my opinions doesn’t matter. None of our opinions matter, we’re just discussing here.

Shahs Iran also had its fair share of problems, people with the exact same mentality as you got impatient and wanted a revolution. You see the results. Now you guys are getting impatient again and this time, not only do you want another revolution, you want foreign countries to bomb and even balkanize us if it leads to that as you admitted in your earlier post. I hope you really didn’t mean it.

We need to get rid of this mentality that if we disagree with the house we must burn it to the ground. This will lead us nowhere. As long as Iran is unified, it will rise again and take its natural place in the world.

The Shah was obviously far from perfect. I have never claimed that the Shah was ideal. He clearly had many problems, but he also did some good things. Iran suffered from illiteracy at the time, and he was partially to blame for that. Only 36% of Iranians were literate in 1975 (48% male, 24% female). But then again, the Shah started to send Iranians abroad to study at top US universities. He turned the Imperial Air Force of Iran into a formidable air force that saved Iran during the Iraq-Iran war. He hugely invested in our energy sector as the driving force of our economy. It's never black and white, for sure.

But let's not forget something. The Shah faced two important challenges: 1. The Soviet Union, a formidable beast in our neighborhood who eyed our land for decades already, 2. Cheap oil prices. For most of his rule, oil prices were below $4 per barrel. When oil hit $20 per barrel, Iran experienced an economic boom that lifted us up to the point that we were the world's 12th largest economy before the war with Iraq. Also, the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991 and one of our biggest security threats was resolved on its own.

Nobody wants to burn Iran into the ground. They need change and when change cannot happen internally, they hope that external factors can trigger it.

You brought up Russia--and I brought up Stalin in one of my latest posts above pertaining to Iran. You see, Stalin not only raised an agrarian Tsarist Russia to great heights but also lifted the Central Asian 'Stans' and he did so brutally.
So your protestations about the recent protests in Iran need some contextualizing.

I didn't fully understand your comment. Would you kindly explain it? I think I missed your point.