Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Meengla]

We need to look at the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the Revolution of Dignity (aka the Maidan Revolution), and its consequences.

Either people have to be very strong--mentally and financially--or those vulnerable nations need to have a very strong security state--to survive the onslaughts of imperialism--and it is imperialism disguised in many robes, for sure.
Iranians don't know what awaits them should the current regime falls. It will not be pretty because, by design, Israelis are going to try to enforce something even worse.
PS. Pardon for my grammar/spelling--someissues lately.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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I assume he means 4th quarter of 2025. 1/3 of those almost 1000 missiles were fired in 2024, and presumably were already replaced by June 2025 (when c. 600 missiles were used). with 100 missiles / month, that indeeds suggests the missiles were replaced by the end of 2025.

working backwards from 5,000 missiles in 2027, it means Israel is saying Iran currently has at least 3,000 MRBMs.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iran hasn’t enriched uranium in 9 months

The Iranian nuclear program is already largely dormant other than some repairs to some buildings and cleanup at some sites. Natanz is still largely damaged. As is Isfahan. Fordow is still buried. And now Pick Axe mountain has been fortified and buried which means ongoing work to get that site ready is halted.

Iran would need to build a centrifuge production and assembly plant somewhere and procure the necessary equipment.

Then build a uranium metal conversion facility and so and so forth.

Pick Axe mountain is buried? are you sure?

 

[Beast89]

13.5 million people voted for Jalili in 2024 with only 50% turnout. even many of the 16.5 million who voted for Pezeshkians are Muslims, since most ex-Muslims in Iran will have boycotted the election (hence the low turnout).

We saw huge turnout for 22 Bahman rallies recently.

Religiosity in Iran is falling, no doubt, but there is still a huge bloc of Muslims (I believe they are still the majority in Iran). I don't see how rabid and fanatical hatred for Islam and Muslims is a winning strategy to unite Iranians.

What percentage would you say are non muslim?

 

[ToddE]

Other than the Fattah 1, the CVN is deployed beyond the range of the other 3 so the assumption that you can overwhelm the C-RAM with Shaheds wont really work.

They have ships inside PG as well. Hypothetical Fattah-1 N or Sejjil-II (2500 KM) N can hit a static carrier 1800-2500 KM esp Fattah-1. But why bother when targets are much nearer.

If you take into account the multiple KC135s deployed to the region we can say that the CVN would probably operate out of range of the Fattah too causing losing a few tankers and jets is acceptable compared to the CVN

You are operating under false assumption that IRGC will fight the carrier only. Their previous pattern says otherwise, Israel hit SPND (our strategic commnand), IRGCASF hit Mossad HQ, Weizmann institutes, Gav Yam (military R&D complexes) within few hours with Hypersonic strikes. Wars are never uni-dimensional. May be IRGC will hit Israelis, US bases or mine Strait of Hormuz, who knows what the war plan is.

 

[kastor ville]

Is that why the regime had to shut down the internet for 3 weeks, and kill 3K people and injure 25K people (per their own official statistics) in just 2 days to suppress the pro-Pahlavi protests? lol Like it or not, Pahlavi is by far the most popular choice. He has millions of supporters inside and outside Iran.

People hate the IRGC right now. If you think after January protests, people will support the IRGC, you are wrong. Majority of Iranians are waiting for the US to bomb Iran. You just need to talk to Iranians on Instagram, YouTube, reddit, X, or even your co-workers. They are even calling for the US to take action against the regime in Iran and you think Iranians want the IRGC to continue their plundering of our wealth for the Arabs in Palestine and Lebanon? You can't mean that.

There is no balkanization of Iran at this point. If anything, I would be afraid of the Balkanization of Iran by a regime that has always prioritized Islam and Arabs over national interests of Iran.

Some of this I agree with...but you're discounting 45 yrs of this govts story telling about the monarchy. Iranians hate the shah and his seed. This move could very well result in a civil war in Iran. It won't even be much of a fight...because the anti monarchy numbers are vastly larger than the pro monarchist.

 

[ToddE]

We need to increase the range of Persian Gulf and Abu-Mahdi missiles. The USN will most likely stay out of the range of our anti-ship missiles.

Qadr family of AShCM has ~2000 KM range and are more reliable than Abu-Mahdi considering they are picked by IRGCN for Shahid Soleimani Class.

Also Persian Gulf AShBM is a thing of past, IRGC moved to Homuz-1/2 antiradiation AShBM and then to Zolfaghar-Basir EO guided AShBM (750 KM, quasi BM). There are some mild hints (not confirmed) that Fattah-1 can hit naval targets too but that remains to be seen.

 

[kastor ville]

Those were warning shots. I'm sure nobody in the Iranian military, or Houthis, is stupid enough to think they can target US carriers with single shots.

Iran's only chance of actually damaging a USN protected asset is by overwhelming their air defenses first. Something that hasn't been tried before.

All you need is one BM on the deck...no fighters will be taking off after that, for days if not months. You don't need to sink them...as a matter of fact I would concentrate all the BMs on the closest carrier first, after a direct hit, concentrate on the airbases.
A lot of this depends on the chinese and russian satellites giving Iran a heads up.... The attack will most likely start from the naval assets via tomahawks.
Simultaneously the fighters will take off from Jordan.
If Iran gets a heads up that there is unusual activity...they can prep the first big salvo.... If they can get off a big salvo, at the beginning of the attack... they can put a major dent in their plans.

 

[Persian Gulf]

What percentage would you say are non muslim?

I would assume:

- half of Iran's population are under 35 and 20% of Iran's population is under 18. breakdown of adult population: 30% are young adults (18-35) and the rest are middle aged or older adults (70%).
- at least 70% of those older than 35 are muslim (= 49%).
- at least 30-40% of those aged 18-35 are muslim (= 9-12%).

so at least c. 60% of the adult population are muslim. this is a fairly conservative estimate, I think the real number is probably much higher than this, though whatever the number is, it will continue to fall as the younger generations replace the old.

this is only my guesswork based on my experiences. others will wildly disagree with my assumptions. there is virtually no way to know for sure.

 

[ToddE]

Does Fattah-1(or any other long range ballistic missile that they want to throw at the USN) have terminal guidance to direct itself towards a ship? A missile based solely in CEP is not going to hit much of value. We saw this in the war with Israel, and that was against static targets with known locations at the time.

Entire Ballistic and Cruise Missile arsenal of Iran is Terminally guided, even the borderline IRBMs like Sejjil-II, K-4 (upto 3200 KM as per IISS). The Anti-Shipping family has EO/Anti-Radiation option (see below).

Current BM arsenal

Alleged ICBM/SLVs of IRGCASF
Ghaem Tristaged Solid-Solid-Solid 100 SLV series on TEL
Qased Tristaged Liquid-Solid-Solid SLV on TEL

Borderline IRBMs
K-4 clustered warhead Exoatmospheric PBV on hypergolic fuel (3200 kM)
Sejjil-II dual staged solid fueled Spin Stabilised RV (2500 KM)

MRBM
Fattah Hypersonic missile, INS guided MaRV (1500 KM)
Kheybar Shikan 1/2 Skip Glide INS guided MaRV (1500/2000 KM)
Etemad CPRA (ECM) Endoatmospheric MaRV (1800 KM)
Ghadr-F Endoatmospheric+Exoatmospheric (Gas-Thrusters) MaRV (2000 KM)

SRBM
Qasim Basir EO guided datalinked quasiballistic MaRV (1400 KM)
Zolfaghar INS guided quasiballistic MaRV (1000 KM)
Fateh-Mobin/313/Raad-500 quasiballistic Laser INS guided MaRV (500 KM)

TBM

Fath-360 Laser INS (120 KM)

AShBM
Persian Gulf EO/IIR guided quasi Ballistic Missile (300 KM)
Hormuz 1/2 Anti-Radiation quasi Ballistic MaRV (300 KM)
Zolfaghar Basir quasi Ballistic MaRV (750 KM)

 

[El Sidd]

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Complete, total degenerates

Not one comment in the video mentions any sect but only mentions Islam.

 

[Watandar]

I would assume:

- half of Iran's population are under 35 and 20% of Iran's population is under 18. breakdown of adult population: 30% are young adults (18-35) and the rest are middle aged or older adults (70%).
- at least 70% of those older than 35 are muslim (= 49%).
- at least 30-40% of those aged 18-35 are muslim (= 9-12%).

so at least c. 60% of the adult population are muslim. this is a fairly conservative estimate, I think the real number is probably much higher than this, though whatever the number is, it will continue to fall as the younger generations replace the old.

this is only my guesswork based on my experiences. others will wildly disagree with my assumptions. there is virtually no way to know for sure.

"Iranians turning away from Islam because of clerical regime!!" is one of the oldest Zionist propaganda lines out there. I remember reading it 15-18 years ago in some articles in late 2000's when Netanyahu was trying to push Bush to bomb Iran because it was few weeks away from a nuke. The reality is Iranians are diverse in their religiousity, some are devout, some are moderate, some have left religion altogether.

During both of my Umrah's in back to back years, there was no shortage of Iranian flags among all the umrah tour groups.

There is no shortage of Iranians attending ziyarat's in Iraq or at Arbaeen either.

 

[mangekyo]

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[Bharatah]

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Zionist fake news.

 

[kastor ville]

What if Iran use dirty bomb against Israel? It just need to reach israel, not even need to hit anything. Infact Israel AD kill won't do any good to it.

Please don't talk crazy...this will do nothing except green light tactical nukes against Iran.