They have had deadly clashes with poor Iranian border guards. Many of which didn’t have body armour or even proper guns as Hack-Hook who served down there testified. And they do exactly what they are good at - hit and run attacks like all insurgent groups. Not attacking and holding.
U.S. had to drop 300K soldiers to take Iraq and that was with most of the Republican guard running away. Iran is almost 9x bigger.
2000 is pissing in the wind.
Yes Kurdish-Turkic and no not Hamedan, but Kermanshah. The city that stood up to Saddam’s invader horde and MEK.
The separatist movement in Iran is the weakest of the four (Iraq, Syria, Turkey). Even in Syria they just gave up and agreed to join Syrian army.
Iranian Kurdistan will do what it has always done and that is remain out of the conflict. Sure some parts of the population may decide to join some local groups. Mostly kids between 14-21 that don’t know better.
But it still doesn’t invalidate my point. Iran is massive.
Leaders to lead them to do what? Take an Iranian military base? Mossad is already burning agents at a record pace, it’s not going to risk its handlers.
You realize Iran has a national guard right? Basij has a military arm as well? They don’t deploy often, they did back in the day post Iran/Iraq war. They will likely be deployed during war for the exact reason your thinking.
If war breaks out it’s not going to riot police in the streets it’s going to be martial law. Anyone in the streets will get rounded up and arrested and if you shoot you get killed on sight. There is not going to be the leniency you see in peace time with regular police officers.
The issue here is you think power lies in the hand of Khamenai. When it rests in the hands of those around him and their loyal factions.
The powerful and rich run countries not the unemployed and youth.
In Syria, it wasn’t any moderate that came to power but the one who was able to step out of the cage match still alive and breathing (Jewlani).
That’s how things work and that’s how they have worked for thousands of years. And that’s how any revolution in Iran will work. It will be the faction or factions that have the most wealth, power, :influence and muscle. It won’t be the MEK, it won’t be some liberal roshan ferk like Khatami, it won’t be a prince who hasn’t stepped inside his country in over 50 years.
It will be someone from within the system or the one that’s emerges from the civil war (if there is one).
Bin Salman didn’t do a coup. He just skipped the succession line by using his father’s dementia to make himself de-facto king. He didn’t truly change the government or operating governance of Saudi Arabia anymore than a President coming to power and changing his cabinet and advisors does.
In your example, it would be more like if Rouhani decided to make himself supreme leader. The system doesn’t change, just the person running the system.
Everybody plays this game.
