Operation Ghazab Lil Haq (Pakistan - Afghanistan War)

[Meengla]

It has to be seen though. At least currently, it looks like Pakistan has absolutely no leverage inside Afg.

I believe there is a lot of leverage but the Pakistani approach is cautious: The current Afghan Taliban leadership was groomed via things like the 'Quetta Shoora' while the Americans were in Afghanistan. A lot of 'investment' has been made and there is probably still hope that saner elements in the Afghan ruling class will come to some understanding.
But there is still the stick part available: The latest strikes inside Afghanistan by Pakistan were facilitated by factions in Afghanistan working for Pakistan. Plus there is the threat of using the NRF, who are all too eager to take down the Afghan Taliban.

 

[Blain2]

I believe there is a lot of leverage but the Pakistani approach is cautious: The current Afghan Taliban leadership was groomed via things like the 'Quetta Shoora' while the Americans were in Afghanistan. A lot of 'investment' has been made and there is probably still hope that saner elements in the Afghan ruling class will come to some understanding.
But there is still the stick part available: The latest strikes inside Afghanistan by Pakistan were facilitated by factions in Afghanistan working for Pakistan. Plus there is the threat of using the NRF, who are all too eager to take down the Afghan Taliban.

I agree that there are "elements" that may be more open to working with Pakistan but the issue is if their voices count and what the chances of them coming to power within the Taliban structure are. How long does Pakistan continue holding out hope for a change?

 

[Meengla]

I agree that there are "elements" that may be more open to working with Pakistan but the issue is if their voices count and what the chances of them coming to power within the Taliban structure are. How long does Pakistan continue holding out hope for a change?

Not for long. Last time Qatar/Turkey persuaded Pakistan to engage with the Taliban. This time, no more. Pakistan will keep attacking from now on based on 'intelligence' provided until the Afghan Taliban correct course or are put in great danger by raising the NRF.

 

[Meengla]

@Blain2 / other saner Pakistanis here:
A certain 'narrative' is being pushed that everything will be fine if the imprisoned Messiah Khan is released. I strongly oppose that. That narrative was paddled during the India-Pakistan May 2025 conflict with arguments like 'national unity'. Pakistan didn't have to mobilize its ground troops much then and came out ahead.

Similarly, there is a narrative that releasing the Messiah Khan will solve the problem with Afghanistan/terrorism. To a small extent, that will help because currently the KPK govt machinery is either idle or even facilitating anti-Pakistan elements, directly or indirectly. But to think that the terrorists would settle for anything less than acquiring a sizable chunk of Pakistani territory is delusional. They want the territory and that the Messiah Khan too would object to and thus the threats against Pakistan would continue. He was the PM of Pakistan for almost four years and the threat didn't go down--it was just dormant a little bit as the terrorists were regrouping.

And it's shameful that to gain the Power back, the Messiah Khan would stoop to ethnic blackmail. Such a great leader of the Islamic world! For the sake of politeness and forum's rules, I am stopping here about him.

 

[flyingorca]

This is the same failed approach of the last 50 years. And you don't have Saudi or American funding anymore. IMF/World Bank are not going to give a loan for more adventures in Afghanistan.

Do you ever sleep?

 

[Watandar]

Do you ever sleep?

My deep concern for the welfare of Pakistan keeps me going

 

[Ak01]

My deep concern for the welfare of Pakistan keeps me going

did you mean the welfare of afghanistan/taliban

 

[Blain2]

@Blain2 / other saner Pakistanis here:
A certain 'narrative' is being pushed that everything will be fine if the imprisoned Messiah Khan is released. I strongly oppose that. That narrative was paddled during the India-Pakistan May 2025 conflict with arguments like 'national unity'. Pakistan didn't have to mobilize its ground troops much then and came out ahead.

Similarly, there is a narrative that releasing the Messiah Khan will solve the problem with Afghanistan/terrorism. To a small extent, that will help because currently the KPK govt machinery is either idle or even facilitating anti-Pakistan elements, directly or indirectly. But to think that the terrorists would settle for anything less than acquiring a sizable chunk of Pakistani territory is delusional. They want the territory and that the Messiah Khan too would object to and thus the threats against Pakistan would continue. He was the PM of Pakistan for almost four years and the threat didn't go down--it was just dormant a little bit as the terrorists were regrouping.

And it's shameful that to gain the Power back, the Messiah Khan would stoop to ethnic blackmail. Such a great leader of the Islamic world! For the sake of politeness and forum's rules, I am stopping here about him.

BTW, I alluded to some of this in post 3667 referring to the confusion in Pashtun politics that is undermining not only Pakistan's security, but KPK's all the more. This confusion and lack of clarity against the external threat is the reason we cannot go after the problem with single-minded focus and continue to take casualties.

I also agree with you that IK will have no solution here. He can put a band-aid by pacifying the Taliban for some amount of time but you cannot avoid the inevitable if the other side is hell-bent on bringing their interpretation of Islam to all of Pakistan and nothing less will satisfy them. I always felt that IK's limited understanding of these issues was his biggest weakness and it did catch up with him.

None of IK's supporters here can answer the question which is how would you reason with Taliban if they want their version of Islam implemented all over Pakistan. I also wrote in a previous post that PTI/IK will suffer the same fate in KP as ANP. Their people would be targeted and taken out for being "secular" and against the nizam-e-takfir that the Taliban espouse.

 

[Meengla]

None of IK's supporters here can answer the question which is how would you reason with Taliban if they want their version of Islam implemented all over Pakistan. I also wrote in a previous post that PTI/IK will suffer the same fate in KP as ANP. Their people would be targeted and taken out for being "secular" and against the nizam-e-takfir that the Taliban espouse.

That's the likely scenario: Those who want their version of 'Sharia' to be imposed on Pakistan, will never stop short of that and we all know what their Sharia looked like in late 2000s in the Malakand Division / Swat Valley. Honestly, these people are worse than the Neanderthal. Worse!!

But this Pakistani Pashtun--a real one, not a fake like Imran-- is clear in his views and doesn't mince word saying the top priority of the KPK govt has become releasing Imran. It is a short video but sums up what's happening and what may happen with the NRF given a primary role in Afghanistan.

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[Serendipity]

I think quoting the truth about Iran attacking Pakistan hurt Watandars feeling. Would you like further details of those attacks? Or are the facts inconvenient to the pro Iran agenda.

 

[Watandar]

“Kabul is well within its rights to respond, considering it is a matter of their own sovereignty, but also because by doing that, the public will rally behind them and increase their domestic legitimacy, as we saw in the last cycle of attacks,” he said.

Afghanistan bombing: What’s Pakistan’s strategy as India-Taliban ties grow?

Pakistani air raids break fragile ceasefire as Islamabad faces pressure on both borders.

www.aljazeera.com

Taliban has leveraged the conflict with Pakistan to build ties with India and also improve its domestic legitimacy.

 

[Asfandyar Bhittani]

that reminds me @Asfandyar Bhittani havent gotten an update on the expulsion of refugees form u in a long time , hope u are okay

Deportation rate too small for regular updates.

AT the start of deportation program in 2023 there were estimated 4 million (+-500k) Afghans in Pakistan. Legal and illegal.

Half of them (2.056 million have been sent back). Half still to go. This took 2.5 years, with no effort being made in 2024. Chart below shows Govt effort concentrated to around ~12 months over this time

At current deportation rates (3-3.5k/day) we should be getting to the end by end of 2027. If another spike happens, maybe mid-2027.

(None of these calculations account for how many have entered Pakistan since September 2023. I haven't seen any data regarding that so can't factor in. Meaning those timelines could easily stretch)

Chart below is until 14 Feb.

 

[flyingorca]

My deep concern for the welfare of Pakistan keeps me going

As soon as the one eyed dajjal is removed, Pakistan's situation will get better.

 

[Blain2]

Deportation rate too small for regular updates.

AT the start of deportation program in 2023 there were estimated 4 million (+-500k) Afghans in Pakistan. Legal and illegal.

Half of them (2.056 million have been sent back). Half still to go. This took 2.5 years, with no effort being made in 2024. Chart below shes Govt effort concentrated to around ~12 months.

At current deportation rates (3-3.5k/day) we should be getting to the end and by end of 2027. If another spike happens, maybe mid-2027.

(None of these calculations account for hoe many have entered Pakistan since September 2023. I haven't seen any data regarding that so can't factor in. Meaning those timelines could easily stretch)

Chart below is until 14 Feb.
View attachment 180817

They need to accelerate this on a hyper-scale. Taliban have to feel the pressure economically. They can always supplicate to Imam Modi (their new spiritual sheikh) for financial khairaat.

 

[Asfandyar Bhittani]

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I am lost for words tge fk he is doing in qatar, shahbazo going there is understandable but the fk is he doing there

Why not? If shehbazo and family can get Avenfield stamped using Qatari letters than why not Field Marshal Hafiz e Quran Syed Asim Munir, Nishan-e-Imtiaz (Military), Hilal-e-Jurat, Chief of Army Staff & Chief of Defence Forces. Bro deserves something for winning countless wars.