Blain2
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Great post. Very much on point and accurate.Taliban don't have much reserves
If they use something, it's difficult for them to replace, they don't have resources or sellers
So at most afghans can keep it up for a day or two and then they will just burn through stock and seek ceasefire
Pakistan for it's part doesn't want a war as it understands it's futile, nor does it want to heavily escalate and punish Afghanistan too much, it understands.it could cause more problems
But we are stuck and forced into this because of Afghan behaviour
There are no ordnance factories in Afghanistan. Even their expenditure of small arms ammunition (5.56/7.62) is extremely taxing as they have to get it smuggled burning up hard cash when their economy is already cash strapped.
Artillery, whether it's left over 105mm, 130mm (not sure if they have any 155mm left), they have no way to sustain their fire against Pakistani positions. Even mortar rounds are probably being put together without any significant quality control and short in supply.
So beyond the noise, Taliban are in a pretty precarious situation thus such a dependence on TTP to put pressure on Pakistan. An active shooting war with Pakistan cannot even last a week with sustained firing on their side.





