Great article that to me, suggests that if Iran can just hold on for a few more weeks while GCC and Israel exhaust their interceptors, then this war can come to a close. Iran can be offered sanctions relief in exchange for lifting its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Gulf states face a war of attrition as cheap Shahed drones threaten to deplete million-dollar interceptor stocks within weeks
www.thetimes.com
How long can Gulf air defences hold out against Iran?
Gulf states face a war of attrition as cheap Shahed drones threaten to deplete million-dollar interceptor stocks within weeks
The Iranian Shahed drones flying between the skyscrapers of the Gulf are a sight more synonymous with Ukraine than the luxury hotels and business centres they are targeting in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain.
Gulf monarchies, though, say they are ready to keep up their defences against Iranian counter-attacks, launched after the American and Israeli bombardment that began on Saturday.
The
United Arab Emirates, where five-star hotels as well as American military bases have been struck by debris from intercepted missiles, held an emergency press conference to insist on its defence readiness, after reports claiming that Gulf nations were running out of interceptor missiles.
“The UAE is at its highest state of readiness and possesses capabilities and air defences … that allow it to defend the country and protect its people regardless of the duration,” said Colonel Abdul Nasser al-Humaidi, the UAE defence ministry spokesman.
He was standing alongside the remnants of downed Shahed drones, the Iranian missile supplied to Russia for use in Ukraine and now deployed in Iran’s own defence.
Along with Qatar, the UAE denounced a report by the American news agency Bloomberg that claimed that Qatar and the UAE would run out of interceptors within a week. Qatar even suggested it might sue Bloomberg.
“These assertions are unfounded and misrepresent the UAE’s high level of preparedness, technological sophistication and operational readiness,” the UAE foreign ministry said separately, in an unusually forceful statement against a western media outlet.
The numbers so far are indisputably impressive: out of 186 missiles, Emirati defences have intercepted 172, along with 755 of the 812 Shahed drones launched at the country.
Privately, Gulf officials say they are telling President Trump to finish the job in Iran, rather than counselling him to end the war.
However, they may change tack if the war threatens to drag down their economies. Other Gulf sources question the mathematics of the asymmetrical war being fought, with swarms of relatively cheap drones requiring million-dollar interceptors to take them out.
Like other Gulf governments, the UAE has refused to disclose the number of interceptors left in its stocks. That is a closely guarded secret that the Iranians would very much like to know, as they try to wear down the country’s defences and force them to push the US and
Israel into ending the war of attrition.
One Gulf source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the conflict’s result will come down to whose supplies run out first: US, Israel and Gulf interceptors, or Iran’s drones and missiles.
“We don’t know how much supply is left, and how quickly the Americans and the Israelis are doing their job,” the source said, in reference to the bombardment of Iran’s launch sites.
“The issue is not just the launchers but the infrastructure: the factories for the drones and missiles. If all that is being taken out no one will want to stop [the US and Israel],” they added.
The US and Israel estimate that Iran possesses several thousand missiles, and thousands more Shahed drones, which it had honed and perfected alongside Russia during the war with Ukraine. Many of the direct hits — including one that killed six American soldiers in Kuwait and damaged the US embassy in Riyadh — were by the Shahed drones, which can cost up to $80,000 each.
The US-made Patriots and Thaad (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence) systems that are shooting them down, alongside air-to-air missiles fired by jets, are far more expensive and difficult to produce. Lockheed Martin, which makes the Patriots, manufactures about 600 a year, covering both the US and its allies across the world.
But those countries do not just consider the costs of their missiles; they factor in the ultimate price of a successful Iranian attack on their economies, which are propped up by energy sales and tourism.
The UAE, which has been hit the hardest by Iran in the Gulf, appears to have prepared well in advance for the war that it had lobbied against along with other Arab countries. That included basic items, with a strategic reserve of foodstuffs that would last it between four to six months, according to the economy minister.
Others in the region have been less optimistic. “I think we are lucky if we have weeks,” said the Gulf source. “This is a problem for everyone, including the US.”
The conflict has already damaged Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s ability to export oil and gas, and shut down tourism in
Dubai, which accounts for almost 30 per cent of the city’s GDP. Saudi Arabia is trying to attract $70 billion in direct foreign investment by 2030, a target that now appears out of reach.
In the UAE, prewar estimates of 4 per cent annual growth look unlikely, but the country could overcome the setback as it had done in the past.
One banker in the Gulf, who also requested anonymity, said: “So far, going by historical precedent, the UAE has overcome all those hiccups going back to the financial crisis [of 2008].”
He added that “you’d expect that in a year or two, this will be a blip” to the region’s economies.
But that all depends on how long the war lasts, and how it ends, he added. “If you are left with a very angry Iran, and the Americans just walk away and leave an unstable region, who knows?”