️ New York Times: Trump faces growing dilemma as war on Iran enters third week
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• Two weeks after launching the war alongside Israel, Trump faces a stark choice: escalate further or attempt to declare victory and pull back, both carrying major military, economic, and political risks.
• Trump initially said the war could last four to six weeks, and White House officials say that estimate still stands, even as the conflict enters its third week.
• US officials acknowledge Iran’s ability to choke the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt global trade is greater than expected, with tanker traffic nearly halted and at least 16 commercial vessels attacked.
• Trump publicly called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and Britain to send naval forces to help secure the strait — an acknowledgment the US cannot reopen it alone.
• Oil prices have risen to around $100 per barrel, shipping insurance has surged, and the US even relaxed sanctions on some Russian oil sales to ease supply pressure.
• Over a dozen US soldiers killed and over 2,100 people have died overall, most of them in Iran, including over 1,300 civilians.
• Despite heavy strikes on Iran’s military, Tehran retains the ability to mine shipping lanes, conduct cyberattacks, and launch regional strikes.
• Expectations of an anti-government uprising in Iran have not materialized, with pro-government rallies instead taking place.
• Although the supreme leader was assassinated, the government remains intact and is reportedly directed by his injured son, while the IRGC and Basij militias remain operational.
• The US is sending 2,500 additional Marines, adding to about 50,000 US troops already deployed in the region.
• Trump is weighing major escalation options including seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, or launching a ground raid to seize roughly 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade uranium stored in Isfahan.
