US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[Ali_Baba]

The ten problems that may trap Trump in a nightmare scenario in Iran​

Ten problems that may trap Trump in a nightmare scenario in Iran

As the US-Israeli war stretches into its fifth week and the crisis in the Middle East deepens, several problems have plunged Donald Trump in a nightmare scenario.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Worth a read if you have 10mins.

 

[dbc]

Well, I will tell you this much

There is stuff that I know, and there is stuff that I don't. I know that Russia is providing both targeting solutions and satellite imagery to Iran, that's what I know personally. Then there is stuff that I can't even touch with my credentials. Now, since I am locked out from that (Bear in mind, I had the top 3 security clearances), I don't know what it is. It may be a full SIGINT suit, it may be nothing, I don't know.

And also, from my experience, you won't be able to get them all, even if we have the full spectrum of intel. It is like trying to find a water droplet inside a waterfall. Can we just fly a couple of Warthog flights and try to suppress the Iranian threat in the Gulf? Sure, but you will need to get them right and get them all EVERY SINGLE TIME, which is not easy to do, and above all, this is all going to be reactive, because you will only know when they launch.

And finally, Iran did attack at Random; they attacked a ship twice, once when it was underway, and the second time when it was already abandoned and adrift.

Satellite imagery is a point in time and ships move. The resolution of Russian satellite imagery is low and will not help the Iranians identify and discriminate between cargo vessels belonging to friendly nations like China or hostile nations. China currently has 66 ships stranded in the Strait. Iran isn't going to shoot at random ships, they will need to visually ID vessels before they shoot. Sure, they could have a FAC type asset along key choke points to visually ID vessels and provide real time target coordinates but this is where FPV drones are quite effective, I believe the threat to shipping can be neutralized effectively. Sure, Iran may successfully hit one or two ships but once the maritime insurance issue is resolved it is going to increase transit rates.

Edit: As per my research Russian imaging satellites pass over the Strait twice a day. Not often enough to allow Iranians to effectively target merchant vessels using Russian satellite intel.

 

[F-22Raptor]

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[F-22Raptor]

I'll say it again. You are only believing that which you want to believe.

No, it’s illogical to believe Iran would lower its volume of fire if the Israelis are running low on interceptors. Iran is getting hit hundreds of times every day. You’d want to increase your volume of fire to counter Israel.

In reality, Iranian MRBMs and their launchers have been heavily attrited leading to a low rate of fire on Israel.

 

[F-22Raptor]

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The 82nd has arrived in the region

 

[F-22Raptor]

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[j_hungary]

Satellite imagery is a point in time and ships move. The resolution of Russian satellite imagery is low and will not help the Iranians identify and discriminate between cargo vessels belonging to friendly nations like China or hostile nations. China currently has 66 ships stranded in the Strait. Iran isn't going to shoot at random ships, they will need to visually ID vessels before they shoot. Sure, they could have a FAC type asset along key choke points to visually ID vessels and provide real time target coordinates but this is where FPV drones are quite effective, I believe the threat to shipping can be neutralized effectively. Sure, Iran may successfully hit one or two ships but once the maritime insurance issue is resolved it is going to increase transit rates.

Edit: As per my research Russian imaging satellites pass over the Strait twice a day. Not often enough to allow Iranians to effectively target merchant vessels using Russian satellite intel.

I had already said what I could say, and no, I did not say Russia only helps with Satellite Technology, the term I use is Targetting Solution, as an intelligence specialist, I know what satellites can and cannot do; you need to read between the lines. I am not going to talk about it as I mentioned before, it is apparently above my pay grade........

Also, Iran is using Fibre Optics tethered FPV drone for its attack (both UAV and USV), which they literally run a cable on the drone, and it's unjamable, and you can guide them.

And Iran actually did attack a Chinese ship (Think it's flagged somewhere but with China as destination). And also they are having ships to run inside Iranian water between Larak and Qeshm island to "let them through", Chinese ship do not run the same course that every other ship goes through the strait from what I am seeing.

As for the insurance, I am not a sailor, again, you should go follow Sal from what's going on with shipping (He is a former Merchant Marine, a Maritime studies professor) and he had explained why Trump insurance will not work.

 

[F-22Raptor]

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Exactly, and if the entire regime were to collapse we might end up in an Iraq scenario of civil war and multiple militia groups infighting.

It’s better to have compliant leadership to US demands than the unknown of total regime change.

 

[F-22Raptor]

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[Ali_Baba]

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The 82nd has arrived in the region

So, which country have they landed in ?

 

[Ali_Baba]

Trump threatens to 'obliterate' Iran's energy facilities if deal not reached 'shortly'

Meanwhile, attacks continue in Iran, Lebanon, and across the region - with a refinery in Israel set on fire by debris from an intercepted missile.

www.bbc.co.uk

Americans don't even know who they are talking too .... lol ...

 

[baqai]

No, it’s illogical to believe Iran would lower its volume of fire if the Israelis are running low on interceptors. Iran is getting hit hundreds of times every day. You’d want to increase your volume of fire to counter Israel.

In reality, Iranian MRBMs and their launchers have been heavily attrited leading to a low rate of fire on Israel.

you have been saying this for like past few weeks i.e. Iranian missiles and launchers are 90% destroyed and done, yet daily we see steady stream of missiles being fired

why don't you just accept the fact that despite of all the attacks on Iran they have been fighting back as of today, it would be a wishful thinking to say Iran's military might has gone down in crumbles

 

[F-22Raptor]

you have been saying this for like past few weeks i.e. Iranian missiles and launchers are 90% destroyed and done, yet daily we see steady stream of missiles being fired

why don't you just accept the fact that despite of all the attacks on Iran they have been fighting back as of today, it would be a wishful thinking to say Iran's military might has gone down in crumbles

No, I said Iranian rate of ballistic missile fire is down over 90% since the opening days of the war. That’s the Pentagons estimate, not mine.

Irans ballistic missiles are now a finite capability. They can keep the current rate of fire for weeks, maybe even a couple months. But Iran will eventually exhaust its stocks because they no longer have the ability to produce them. Time is not on Irans side.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

... The U.S are morons, what has putting their bases and radars on your soil achieved????

It's provided you zero security

For Israel they have sacrificed you and your economies

And the U.S is headed towards a major strategic defeat ...

I've not seen any of the GCC countries collapse or destroyed.

Their leaders haven't been toppled or replaced, neither they are hiding or need permission from Israel to fly to Pakistan. What's all that about?

 

[Ali_Baba]

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