Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

My personal tracking using Israeli alert system:

# of Iranian waves of missiles towards Israel (note this is # of waves not # of missiles)

3/22 10-11

3/23 5

3/24 16

3/25 8

3/26 10-11

3/27 7-8

3/28 7

3/29 11

3/30 (today) 9


Conclusion: Iran is sending about 8-10 waves per day.

Assuming 1.5 missile(s) per wave then that means around 10-15 missiles per day fired at Israel.
 
Israeli movements in southern Lebanon.

Mostly going up the coast where they can establish a corridor that's less susceptible to attacks

And from the east going up to the Litani river, hiding by it as cover for their forces, and trying to cut off southern Lebanon from rest of Lebanon

Israeli ground operation is basically and upside down letter U. That's the objective. It is not a well thought out design. They will probably ask US for advice on how to proceed with ground invasion

1774906992287.jpeg
 
Falcon29 said:
They were always good at ground warfare. They know their geography well and execute high quality ambushes. Probably highest of any paramilitary non state organization (maybe not professional ones as Wagner and other European ones but for smaller Islamic resistance groups that can't get access to certain weapons because of anti-terror legislation US pushes and threatens nations with )

But yes they did learn from 2024 in sense Israel was annihilating villages before entering with troops so that was new to Hezbollah.

Israel is doing that again and as a result Hezbollah is deploying longer range ambushes using the effective tools to do so from a distance as a workaround to Israel's scorched earth tactics.

In Gaza it's street to street. Hamas relies on blowing up homes IDF forces are stationed in, firing RPGs at them, using snipers + trying to get close enough to engage in close quarters combat + using cameras everywhere in Gaza to identify troop movements

In Lebanon it's longer distance ambushes, looks like Hezbollah has thermal capabilities to identify movements at night and because of southern Lebanon geography (smaller less populated villages) they can fire heavily without worrying about engaging Lebanese civilians as there aren't many homes around in these areas

If it went into Beirut we will see intense close quarters combat and a different style of combat, but idk if Hezbollah has an extensive tunnel systems in Beirut to move fighters from block to block /house to house like Hamas did in Gaza.

Beirut is a big unknown for both sides. I don't think Hezbollah wants them to get anywhere near there and will do everything in their hands to keep them below Litani river.

Israel may not want to go that deep either because it would be harder to get their forces out. Gaza is much smaller and Israeli forces can more easily be evacuated or backed up during combat. Due to the coastal area and areas near border that allow IDF forces to move freely.

Lebanon is much bigger than Gaza and Beirut is backed up in a corner. If IDF tried ground occupation Hezbollah will come from every direction.

The only potential moves Israel can make is very small localized hit and run with special forces off sea of Beirut and immediately withdrawing.

Essentially ground invasion deep into Lebanon would be deadly for Israel and go very bad for them. Would overstretch their forces too. They don't have enough troops to do that while also watch borders with Syria + Egypt and maintain occupations of West Bank and Gaza.

In short, Hezbollah has upper hand in that they will survive ground war because of Lebanon's strategic depth. Even if they lose some territory in southern Lebanon. It won't bring about a strategic advantage for Israel.

Gaza on other hand lacks strategic depth despite Hamas putting up an incredible fight, they cannot stop the occupation of Gaza.
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In your opinion, will Lebanese government forces act forcibly against Hezbollah in the foreseeable future? Or will their guns stay holstered?
 
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ShapurII said:
Has anyone seen @Mr Iran Eye recently?
Dude talked about Qaher-313 and 5th gen Kowsar jet fighters and other bullshit like that. Where is he now? The IRIAF didn't even fight back for 24 hours.

These trolls always disappear when shit hits the fan.
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Concur with @Immortals so off the rail with his comments I’m sorry a few people got suckered into his weird posts
 
Falcon29 said:
Israeli movements in southern Lebanon.

Mostly going up the coast where they can establish a corridor that's less susceptible to attacks

And from the east going up to the Litani river, hiding by it as cover for their forces, and trying to cut off southern Lebanon from rest of Lebanon

Israeli ground operation is basically and upside down letter U. That's the objective. It is not a well thought out design. They will probably ask US for advice on how to proceed with ground invasion

View attachment 189198
Click to expand...
IDF is using 226 brigade in this ground assault. With is compromised of 4 divisions. Estimates that each division has 700-1,000 troops.

They're using around 5-7K ground forces in this operation
 
Immortals said:
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Click to expand...


This will help pave the way for countries that under threat of sanctions did not build pipeline infrastructure. A strategic loss...

It was a path to control foreign policies and internal politics of many regions... keeping them divided.
The rule over the waves seems to be diminishing and in land connectivity should come front and center going forward.
 
Falcon29 said:
IDF is using 226 brigade in this ground assault. With is compromised of 4 divisions. Estimates that each division has 700-1,000 troops.

They're using around 5-7K ground forces in this operation
Click to expand...
I’m waiting for Hezbollah to start circling around these guys I can only bet many tunnels and hideouts that the Lebanese army and Israel couldn’t find after over 2 years they still have found all of Gazas tunnels
 
Master Chief said:
In your opinion, will Lebanese government forces act forcibly against Hezbollah in the foreseeable future? Or will their guns stay holstered?
Click to expand...
Latter. They don't stand a chance against Hezbollah.

It is not like 1982 Beirut civil war. Hezbollah is much stronger than other parties in Lebanon today.

I think they also don't mind the aspect of Hezbollah defending their nation as a ground force but they don't want Hezbollah involving in regional conflicts.

Lebanon is probably most best off in able to defend against a large scale ground invasion than surrounding Arab nations.

I would say Lebanon + West Bank (it Jordanian forces entered it, not due to local rebels) + Jordan have best circumstances for repelling Israeli ground invasions

Gaza + Syria + Egypt all have crappy and difficult circumstances and will unfortunately struggle. Gaza cannot fend off an occupation. Egypt cannot defend Sinai, it would lose it. Syria cannot stop Israeli forces from getting to Damascus.

Gaza + Syria + Egypt all would need to pre-empt Israel to have any chances of success in a war. Which is what historically Syria and Egypt would do in 1948+1967+1973
 
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