US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[SolarWarden]

Lots of 5000lb bombs hitting granite

It looks like it got through. That was a secondary boom.

 

[hasssanali8998]

It looks like it got through. That was a secondary boom.

most likey missiles blowing up that were ready to be launched , we will find out soon

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Possible. But I think they will deploy in key strategic locations along the strait and maybe even that island folks keep talking about.

It's all mountainous. Like trying to deploy to the grand canyon. Useless place to try and fight in.

 

[F-22Raptor]

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Different angle with audio

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

That looks like tactical nuke.

It's not.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Earlier today, there was discussion regarding Brent crude prices. Below is the closing number:



Business Insider is reporting the same.

 

[RescueRanger]

Earlier today, there was discussion regarding Brent crude prices. Below is the closing number:

View attachment 189215

Business Insider is reporting the same.

The global energy shock is HUGE.

 

[dbc]

I’ve been saying it for weeks. You can go back to Trumps Feb 28 statement. Regime change is up to Iranians, not 200K American troops who will nation build for a decade.

No coping here, I’m more than happy with the US military’s performance. They’ve executed their objectives to a tee. If regime survival and wishcasting economic recession on the US is all the regime supporters can muster, it’s not going well for them.

unlike you I have on many occasions as a privilege of my position been kept in the know about the forecast for a variety of industries. 2026 was predicted to be a slow year that's before the war. You say but but muh stock market. Moody's predicts a 49% probability of a recession in 2026 as do other credible analysts.. A recession has occurred every time Moody's index has hit 50%.

You may be happy with the military's performance that's cause you know nothing about military operations.

 

[Fatman17]

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[Fatman17]

US says Trump ‘interested’ in asking Arab countries to pay for war on Iran

White House's Karoline Leavitt says passing the conflict's costs off to regional states is 'an idea' Donald Trump has.

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Trump wants Arabs to pay for the war

 

[Davey Crockett]

 

[F-22Raptor]

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[hasssanali8998]

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will know in 24 to 48 hours

happend in yazd too but they fired misiles the next day

 

[F-22Raptor]

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US official confirmed this base was hit by a high volume of 2,000lb bunker busters

 

[j_hungary]

that's range and payload limited I don't see how these are useful in incapacitating large cargo vessels. Unless these are used to provide realtime target updates and visual confirmation. Even so, Shahed drones cannot receive target coordinates mid flight.
So not sure how fiber optic FPV drones are useful in attacking commercial ships.

Because it does not matter whether or not the damage can be done or has been done to the shipping lane, the only thing Iran needs to do is to demonstrate that they can attack either the ship, the crew, or the cargo, which would be enough for the insurance to stop their policy.

Again, I am not an expert in the field (of how to attack shipping and how underway insurance works). I followed a guy called Sal on Social Media, and he is a former Merchant Mariner and associate professor at the Merchant Marine Academy. Here is his bio on USNI

https://www.usni.org/people/salvatore-r-mercogliano

His YouTube Channel

What's Going on With Shipping?

What's Going on With Shipping focuses on Maritime Industry Policy, and current events in the Maritime Sector, along with Maritime History. The channel features videos that examine the world's merchant marines, the international maritime sector, current events in the maritime trade, and...

www.youtube.com

You can find his explanation and how insurance works in one of his recent videos. In short, IIRC, you are asking the ships and crew in the region to guess whether or not they will be attacked when they were crossing the strait, that would be beside the point, because the instruction is not there, and mariners will not do anything just to see if you will get shot because that action itself voids any insurance. (or the gist of it, I don't have time to go and rewatch 4 weeks of his videos)

I have gone over the point, over, and over again, it's NEVER the physical damage the Iranian may or may not deal that stops the insurance payout and stops sailors from transiting through the strait, if they all run the gauntlet, 90 to 95% of those ships will probably escape unharm as is, but it's that "Chance" of being attack is the one reason why shipping and insurance both stopped. Unless you have a clear "next step," be it a threat identification system, escort, or anything, it will show that the attack can be identified and neutralised. Those ships aren't going anywhere.

Essentially, with the US insurance, it's like you tell them, now you run into the lane, some of you will get attacked, while some of you won't, I can't tell you who they will attack or whether ot not you will get out of the strait unhurt, but it's okay, becuase you are covered by the insurance, so you should restart crossing the strait....