You are engaging me in a conversation that is already over in my opinion.
I will repeat it for the last time, hoping that people will no longer reply to me on this.
This is what will happen after 45 days:
1. The US will replenish the AD in the region that is already on the verge of running out completely.
2. The US forces will be stationed and prepared to launch a ground invasion of Iran. The US amphibious ships will pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
3. The US will bring in more standoff weapons to reduce potential casualties.
4. An oil shock and energy crisis will be avoided, neutralizing Iran's winning card.
On the other hand:
1. Iran will be able to produce 200, 300 or at the most optimistic scenario 400 MRBMs again, all of them or more will be used to exhaust the AD in the region again. So, no gain here, all loss.
2. Iran will lose its islands and oil exports in the Persian Gulf because the US will have amphibious ships and enough troops to invade them. No gain, all loss.
3. Iran will not be able to resolve its main vulnerabilities, i.e. an air force for troop movements and close air support. The 45-day ceasefire changes nothing for the IRIAF or the IRIAA. No gain here either.
4. Iran cannot produce a nuclear bomb in 45 days either. Again, no gain here.
Conclusion: No gains for Iran, all gains for the United States.
And this is the end of this discussion for me. Anybody who recommends Iran to accept a temporary ceasefire is betraying Iran in my opinion. Period.
