You don’t negotiate for 21 hours if the deal is the same deal from May 2025.
What is clear is that there was a separate deal being negotiated that progressed to a MoU level and then Trump torpedoed it in the final hour, likely due to the fact that Iran didn’t agree with him “jointly” controlling the strait. The subsequent blockade provides credence to this theory of mine.
As everyone knows, Trump needs to be personally involved and included in any major agreements as we saw with his Board of Peace.
The Americans weren't even serious about the negotiations. They didn't even see it as a negotiation probably. They just wanted to hand over their terms of surrender to Iran and get Iran to sign it.
From our 10-point proposal, we are already talking about how to accept the US 15-point proposals with some tweaks here and there. Interesting, no?
I haven’t seen that reported by any credible source.
It was on Entekhab, a reformist newspaper. I'm not going to insist it's right because it could very well be false, but it is likely to be true because the JCPOA was also a 10-year deal.
Well you also said Reza Pahlavi was the only alternative before the war began and we see how wrong that analysis was.
We didn't lose the war militarily, did we? Ever since ceasefire started, Reza Pahlavi is back again. Going to foreign news channels, issuing statements, etc. His supporters are holding protests in Europe again. Israel is going to keep him as an option.
So for now I cannot take your dire warnings seriously. I do agree on the need to be vigilant to avoid a 2015 JCPOA like disaster. But at this point we can only watch and see what they agree to. There won’t be a deal that will completely satisfy the Iranians or the Americans, and that’s the point, that’s what a compromise is.
Anything that will be signed will be a repeat of the JCPOA, if not much worse. Probably much worse because we're in a weaker position now. The whole purpose of the JCPOA was to stop Iran's nuclear progress without a single bullet, and it succeeded in rolling back our progress for 8-10 years. Israel does not accept the existence of the Islamic Republic as it sees it inherently anti-Israel.
Given what I am seeing out of Iran, I have lowered my confidence that they are sprinting to a nuclear bomb. There maybe elements of this within the IRGC unbeknownst to Mojtaba and the SNSC, but I don’t think it’s a priority.
Predictable moves are not going to help us win this war. We are predictable, because we are not a nuclear state and we're afraid of Israel and the US.