GOP or MAGA are not going to abandon Trump no matter what. Politics has unfortunately become a team sport for many. However the question is where do the Independents go and that faction is undoubtedly moving away from Trump and feeling buyer's remorse. Now will they show up at the polls in November and in 2028 ?
The fault for all this still lies with Mr Biden and the Democratic party for not allowing people to choose the Democratic presidential candidate in the 2024 election.
You’re absolutely right, for the MAGA core, politics is a team sport and they aren't switching jerseys. But the real story is the Independents. Since Trump’s 2024 victory, that faction has hit a wall. Between the Iran conflict and gas prices that are gutting the average worker's budget, Independents aren't just feeling "buyer's remorse" they are actively jumping ship.
We are seeing this play out in the data, not just the headlines, look at the governor races in New Jersey and Virginia. Democrats swept those because Independents prioritized pragmatism over the chaos of the current administration. Just weeks ago, Democrats flipped two legislative seats in Florida, one of which was literally in the district covering Mar-a-Lago. When you lose your own backyard, you have a math problem.
From special elections in Tennessee to local races in Pennsylvania and New York, the pattern is the same. Democrats aren't winning because their base is growing; they’re winning because Independents are rejecting Trump-allied candidates.
The GOP is clearly banking on the Supreme Court's recent redistricting victory to gerrymander their way into a 2028 majority. It’s a cynical play that will likely cost many Black Democrats their seats in the South. But here’s the thing, it can't stop a massive wave of Independents who are tired of being bled dry at the grocerys store and the pump.
I also agree with you on the Biden side of the ledger. He broke his promise to be a "transitional" candidate. By bypassing a proper primary in 2024, the Democratic party ignored the voters and missed a huge chance to build momentum with a fresh face.