I believe when Nasir Uddin Patwary says he can field huge manpower on the ground. I have witnessed it myself, he is a very good orator.
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Crowd treats him like a general and most of his fanatic supporters didn't looked like they're over 18...
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@Afif What is your assessment of NaPa's soft threat towards EC?
Again, some things has changed for good after July. One thing is that you can say those things at those who sits at godi. NaPa and NCP has the courage to do this. And they will never stop doing it. You couldn't do something like this before July.
Nothing is going to happen and to be honest that is for the better. Bangladesh economy cannot take another round of revolution.
In order for nationwide revolution, you need to reach a critical point of injustice and corruption. Hasina reached it after 15 years. It takes a long time.
As long as BNP don't follow Hasina's dictatorial route, they should be good.
Bro, upcoming local election is very critical point for BNP. If they rip it, it would make it very obvious for the opposition which direction they would like to choose in the next general election. Then Jamaat NCP would organise their strategy and long term plan accordingly. And it won't be pretty.
However, good thing is, at least for now it appears Both opposition and the government are leaving some space for each other and not trying to drive each other into corner as usual in BD politics. You can see that opposition is still engaging with government on various reform initiatives. Even minimally. So the mechanism of reaching compromises is still working somewhat.
The reason for this is a combination of both domestic and international factors.
India and kutta league both expected to reach an understanding with Tareq after election. That he would reverse Yunus's policies on both.
However, Tareq has largely continued with the same policy. As many feared during election as BNP cultivated BAL voter base with some questionable tactics, they would go much easy and soft on league after election. And many of the BAL leadership might silently get released gradually and they will be given at least some space in national politics. BAL expected that too. However, as you can see there is not much sign of any BAL of leadership getting released without trial, it is driving BAL mad and they are feeling 'betrayed.'
As for India, it obviously can't expect BNP to give them the same access and influence that BAL had provided like a good little servant, however, it expected two things largely. BNP would allow BAL space in national politics, and secondly it won't do anything unilaterally regarding foreign policy decisions w.r.t to third parties/countries that are not friendly with India. Will have some compromises with India in this regard.
Now the thing is, Tareq doesn't want conflict with India too and prefers good relation, however despite of his whatever incompetence, he has his own sense of pro Bangladesh foreign policy Where he envision a sovereign BD. Now if India accept it and still want to have a good relation, they are welcome. But if India has a problem with this he can't help them.
Another thing is BD deep state/armed forces are very much keen on meaningful modernization as they rightly recognise the rapidly changing security landscape regionally and globally. And what could happen if you get caught without minimum prep.
Extensive engagement with Pakistan is of their own initiative.
Now India never accepted the idea of military capable BD. But Tareq isn't going to stop this modernization push either as it fits with his strong pro BD vision.
So, for the first time decades, BD government and opposition including both NCP and Jamaat unanimously agrees on foreign policy and national security architecture. This is one of the solid success of July Revolution. Obviously most of our hope regarding meaningful reform of our constitution and institutions has gone out of the window because BNP doesn't want it, but this success has stayed. And will so unless BNP destroys it too.
So, it is very much in opposition's interest for this government to complete its term. Because if there is another revolution and government collapses, there is a very good chance India and BAL would do everything in their capacity in the most ruthless way (like another pilkhana and stuff) to make a comeback. Which is neither in the interest of BNP nor Jamaat.