What is the structural reason behind Pakistan's lack of strategic foresight or clarity in national direction?

[Hopefully Pessimistic]

Recently on X, prominent national security commentators have been commenting on Pakistan's strategic policies over time and have noticed that they are often short-sighted and reactionary to events happening in the immediate time-frame with no long-term vision or goals to them.

One well-known analyst called it "strategic confusion" (lack of clarity) and said even the Afghan Taliban despite its lack of experience and expertise seems to be performing better.

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This raises the question around why?

Some believe it is because policy changes with every new COAS so has no continuity, but that is usually the case in every country's case, policies adapt slightly based on new faces.

However, some political scientists claim it is the byproduct of a much larger identity crisis of the Pakistani state which has been unable to coherently define what it is - or who/what it represents - after decades, hence does not know what its strategic vision in the long-term is. This forces its policies to always be reactionary and short term and often leads to long-term disasters as policies lack foresight and newer policy makers are left undoing the negatives of knee-jerk policies of the past.

Let us examine this claim using the examples of other states:

Turkey - Turkey defines itself as a Turkish nation-state and its strategic policy is anchored in Turkish nationalism and secular technocratism. It's primary threat has been Kurdish separatism and territorial integrity which it combats using mixed methods of military operations and cultural assimiliation policies.

Afghanistan - Afghanistan (inc Taliban) historically has defined itself is as a Pashtoon dominated nation state anchoring its policies largely on Pashtun nationalist interests long-term and quelling internal rebellions and consolidating Pashtun demographics.

India - over the years India has been developing a strategic identity around Indic Hindu civilisation which its policies are increasingly being designed around the long-term with consolidating a Hindu civilisational identiry while focusing on countering separatism in Kashmir, Punjab and communist insurgencies.

In these examples, faces may change but long-term clarity remains towards a future vision.

This now brings us back to Pakistan, can it define itself in a detailed coherent manner and have a long-term national strategic vision for itself that shapes policies but also makes sense well into the future. This kind of identity and long-term vision tends to play a huge role in a nation's psychology, behaviour and its approach with the world.

This lack of coherent long-term visions and aggressive nationalism is why neighbouring countries and ethno-separatists continue to lay claim on every inch of Pakistan with no major resistance.

Pakistan must remember that firefighting to maintain the appearance of stability on the surface, does not mean true permanent stability. It can often erupt far more dangerously in the near-future and be out of control. This is why long-term visions are important.

 

[Hopefully Pessimistic]

One of the things that made me want to write this is because i noticed many Pakistanis are actually really confused and lack clarity

Afghans and ethno nats are claiming pieces of Pakistan everywhere and as much you might hate them, they have very clear ideology of what they want, its the resources that they lack.

Meanwhile Pakistan struggles to really identify its interests, especially long term, it cant just forever be stuck with reactively managing instability, it needs a vision that is coherent too. It has resources without a real identity or vision long-term.

 

[Oscar]

One of the things that made me want to write this is because i noticed many Pakistanis are actually really confused and lack clarity

Afghans and ethno nats are claiming pieces of Pakistan everywhere and as much you might hate them, they have very clear ideology of what they want, its the resources that they lack.

Meanwhile Pakistan struggles to really identify its interests, especially long term, it cant just forever be stuck with reactively managing instability, it needs a vision that is coherent too. It has resources without a real identity or vision long-term.

Because the elitist vision of Pakistan was never disseminated properly post partition and nothing truly changed for the population.
All that happened was the British was replaced at the top while the existing mechanisms the British used to rule remained for the most part.

I was joking with someone recently is that most if not all Pakistanis were taught
“pehla kalma tayyab, tayyab mane pak”

How many actually were able to grasp why Tayyab and why is pak?
Then there is a 3rd Kalima - which technically doesn’t qualify but it was a mechanism used by local Madressas from days early to help children learn when they were the mechanism.

مگر جن بچوں کا “ش یا ق ٹھیک نہیں وہ اِس کو رٹ کر کے کیا کر لیں گے

 

[313Ghazi]

The vision of anyone who is in charge is to make the most money before thier term expires and to retire abroad. Same of every single person in every single office of power.

Where is the long term vision supposed to come from? There are no national level goals, no 5 year plans, only talk and more talk.

This attitude reflects everywhere - army is not immune to it, it's one of the biggest culprits.

 

[That_Guy]

Elites and establishment consider changes to the economy and social structure a threat to their rule. A lot of them benefit directly from a disenfranchised population, as poor people are more worried about trying to survive under the slave-wage system, rather than rise up as a collective to bring about social and economic changes that would see the elites and the ultra-rich pay their fair share and no longer take advantage of workers.

You want to fix Pakistan's security issues, you have to have a system that's fair and just. Right now, Pakistan's system only benefits a few.

 

[PK781]

Elites and establishment consider changes to the economy and social structure a threat to their rule. A lot of them benefit directly from a disenfranchised population, as poor people are more worried about trying to survive under the slave-wage system, rather than rise up as a collective to bring about social and economic changes that would see the elites and the ultra-rich pay their fair share and no longer take advantage of workers.

You want to fix Pakistan's security issues, you have to have a system that's fair and just. Right now, Pakistan's system only benefits a few.

yup, the ruling kanjars are only concerned about settling abroad, and making tons of money for themselves. They don't want any changes which erodes their control or rule over the masses.
The ruling feudal lords (all entire lot of them) will never allow changes that give empowerment to the awaam. This cycle is enabled by foreign enemies and "friends" altogether

this is why the people never got strategic clarity, how can you? When u are being ruled by 70 yr old senile old babus who can't be bothered to give up power and their seats/chairs and are content to keep the awam in dark. Those assholes are making sure we all keep fighting each other whether is sectarian, religious differences, party and ethnic lines, area of birth, provincial etc........while they all laugh to the banks. They show restraints to enemies to get some imaginary shahbashi from the white man....

CORRUPTION (financial and moral) has done all this.

Sadly, it will actually take a final big war to get rid of all these leeches......no other way........somehow they all always survive until now, but the end is fast approaching......a full cleaning is required and it will be bloody (final battle of ghazwa e hind)

 

[FuturePAF]

yup, the ruling kanjars are only concerned about settling abroad, and making tons of money for themselves. They don't want any changes which erodes their control or rule over the masses.
The ruling feudal lords (all entire lot of them) will never allow changes that give empowerment to the awaam. This cycle is enabled by foreign enemies and "friends" altogether

this is why the people never got strategic clarity, how can you? When u are being ruled by 70 yr old senile old babus who can't be bothered to give up power and their seats/chairs and are content to keep the awam in dark. Those assholes are making sure we all keep fighting each other whether is sectarian, religious differences, party and ethnic lines, area of birth, provincial etc........while they all laugh to the banks. They show restraints to enemies to get some imaginary shahbashi from the white man....

CORRUPTION (financial and moral) has done all this.

Sadly, it will actually take a final big war to get rid of all these leeches......no other way........somehow they all always survive until now, but the end is fast approaching......a full cleaning is required and it will be bloody (final battle of ghazwa e hind)

Systems can survive with some amount of corruption. But there is the fact of incompetence that can’t be underestimated. One need only look at Trump and we can see how even with blatant corruption, the system keeps going. But, with his incompetence, major strategic and shortsighted mistakes are squandering much strategic leverage.

Coming back to Pakistan, competent people face many hindrances from participation. If allowed to participate they will be co-opted one way or the other, and with better opportunities abroad, many of the best talented people will flee, even with all the hardships that entails for themselves and their future generations.