India Economy Thread

[r3alist]

Economist actually praises India's statistical robustness, if you can read past the headline

View attachment 204842

It'll be better if you can keep your mouth shut on topics you don't understand.

This is the thing , you think you can tell people your feelings need to be reflected as fact, and then you don't like any mild probing, so ignorance to inconvenience ....it's hard coded.

You should move on from the hormonal teenage phase.

Investment outflows means firms are taking profit and Indian companies are investing outside India.

Lol, so why would firms miss out on further growth that you insist is there and will happen .... That is the opposite of what they do investors would love nothing more than to compound on returns if the growth picture is strong

It reflects that the markets are seen as overvalued, and I have provided hard facts on this, which makes sense because your key prestige sector of services is currently bumpy, China and America are the main AI plays, so consequently India does not represent a strong growth narrative

 

[Vikramaditya1]

Lol, so why would firms miss out on further growth that you insist is there and will happen .... That is the opposite of what they do investors would love nothing more than to compound on returns if the growth picture is strong

It reflects that the markets are seen as overvalued, and I have provided hard facts on this, which makes sense because your key prestige sector of services is currently bumpy, China and America are the main AI plays, so consequently India does not represent a strong growth narrative

Yeah you still don't have fundamental understand how investment works. Do you? You didn't answer the question, why if economy is stagnating, we get $95 Billions in investment and increasing. Outflow is calculated both by profit taking, divesting and outflow through India's own investment in foreign firms or markets.

It's nice to see you comparing India with China and not the shithole economies in the region. Like yeah, the foreign investment in India is comparable to China, or say AI development quantum computing et al is comparable, we are still so far away from both US and China be it AI or in general economy, but our presence is only steadily increasing. Expected for a country that contributes some 17% to GDP growth in this world.

 

[r3alist]

Yeah you still don't have fundamental understand how investment works

You are comparing two different types of investment you silly samosa

I was talking specifically about portfolio investment and rotation away from India in the emerging market bucket, it has lost its value thesis relative to other economies and areas, yet what is your narrative, there is only one large growing attractive investment economy




you are referring to something more like capital investment, and that is fine and good and probably will align the GDP further, this is all good.....so for your sanity if you need a 101% positive narrative, i will pretend to agree with you

But....If you can ingest this without melting

India’s Unconvincing Economic Facade

India portrays itself as a, or even the, global growth leader. The rest of the world should recognize that the reliability of India’s economic data is low.

www.aei.org

There are a number of issues with official job statistics. Looming over them all is a manifestly ridiculous definition of unemployment:

According to the Current Weekly Status (CWS) approach, a person was considered as unemployed in a week if he/she did not work even for 1 hour on any day during the reference week but sought or was available for work at least for 1 hour on any day during the reference week.15

And if employed under this definition for 30 days, a person is considered employed for the year. Thirty hours can technically qualify as employment for a year

 

[Vikramaditya1]

You are comparing two different types of investment you silly samosa

Weak argument, you're the one who brought up outflows. But oh that's not favorable for you eh?

I was talking specifically about portfolio investment and rotation away from India in the emerging market bucket, it has lost its value thesis relative to other economies and areas, yet what is your narrative, there is only one large growing attractive investment economy

You weren't, you were talking about "investment outflow". Even if you are talking specifically about FII's, even that's not favorable for you. Indian Domestic investors are large enough to cover for the Foreign portfolio investors. These are hot money, they chase quick and easy money. It's not the indicator of the economy or sentiments of the "investors" there is hundreds of reasons for them to leave.

you are referring to something more like capital investment, and that is fine and good and probably will align the GDP further, this is all good.....so for your sanity if you need a 101% positive narrative, i will pretend to agree with you

Yeah, yeah yeah. You want to stick to favorable numbers yeah? FIIs because you can find some "good news" there.

There are a number of issues with official job statistics. Looming over them all is a manifestly ridiculous definition of unemployment:

According to the Current Weekly Status (CWS) approach, a person was considered as unemployed in a week if he/she did not work even for 1 hour on any day during the reference week but sought or was available for work at least for 1 hour on any day during the reference week.15

And if employed under this definition for 30 days, a person is considered employed for the year. Thirty hours can technically qualify as employment for a year

You are an endless supply of comic relief when it comes to your knowledge in economics. What now? "1 hour" rule. What can we do, it is actually the official standard set by the International Labour Organization (ILO). Basically that's how all the countries count employment and you're bringing this up as if you found a new kryptonite lol! If you want, you can write an angry email to ILO asking them to change their rules, don't forget to specifically mention your place of origin because you gotta cc them as well.

But if you insist this is somehow faked by India because (well I hate ILO saar) for arguments sake we can look at private data collectors CMIE which uses methodology like youth unemployment rate and even then India's unemployment rate is comparable to it's peers.

 

[CallSignMaverick]

Ground breaking done

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Yet India begging to be part of UK led 6th gen project and buying second hand Jaguar aircraft from UK, also asking for Rolls Royce ToT.

When did India asked brits to be part of their ppt files? The best we've known is India showing interest in France-led FCAS. 2nd hand jaguars are bought for spares to maintain existing fleet due to delays in induction of new jets (offtopic from this thread anyway).

Indians flooding UK to work as delivery drivers. Indians lining up for UK visas.

Last I checked Indians along with Chinese remain highest earning ethnic groups there. Zero points for guessing who's at the bottom

Chinese ethnic group biggest earners in the UK

Overall, ethnic minorities earn 3.8% less than white ethnic groups, the first official figures show.

www.bbc.com

 

[c14-Isotope]

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[Yasser76]

@CallSignMaverick @Vikramaditya1
brothers, whom you are explaining ?

Pakistan has already proved to the entire world, how intelligent they are with stocks & FDI and how to earn by investing with them and now entire world is understanding why did US medicated after Operation SINDOOR.

$500m for Trump, access for Pakistan: How a crypto-diplomatic bet paid off

The crypto firm that brought Trump a windfall has also allowed Pakistan to gain clout with US administration.

www.aljazeera.com

But bit "Pakistan saaaaaar!"

As usual, living in all your heads rent free.....

 

[Musings]

Guys - once again topic please.........

 

[CallSignMaverick]

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[r3alist]

Weak argument, you're the one who brought up outflows. But oh that's not favorable for you eh?

You weren't, you were talking about "investment outflow"

No I literally shared links to what I meant, and explained it. Remember the initial post was the huge financial scamming with Rajesh. Not my fault you chose to ignore

Basically that's how all the countries count employment and you're bringing this up as if you found a new kryptonite lol

They adapted the definition, then based unemployment on this potentially misrepresented number, potentially inherently due to the nature of work cyclicality. But there is no way 4% unemployment means the same thing in India as it does the UK, not exactly surprising given the different nature of work but then if you question this extrapolation made within the numbers, you get your type of reaction.

 

[Vikramaditya1]

investment outflows for two years, global investment sentiment is reducing yet GDP growth story somehow remains untouched?

This is what you said. Make it make sense. Once again you have no idea what even is investment outflows are. You simply quoted a component of investment outflow then say "saar why GDP so high saaar". Now you're trying to spin out of this. Nice try.

No I literally shared links to what I meant, and explained it. Remember the initial post was the huge financial scamming with Rajesh. Not my fault you chose to ignore

They adapted the definition, then based unemployment on this potentially misrepresented number, potentially inherently due to the nature of work cyclicality. But there is no way 4% unemployment means the same thing in India as it does the UK, not exactly surprising given the different nature of work but then if you question this extrapolation made within the numbers, you get your type of reaction.

Potentially, could be , would be. Again trying to world salad out of another blunder. Next time, do a quick Google search but instead of chasing links, ask like " is unemployment rate rising in India?" Or simply type "Unemployment rising, falling in India". Your entire argument rests on the fact that all data is fake, here is Wire article about why it is fake. I'm not interested in fantasy fiction of make believe economists. If you have varifiable data from either government or independent agencies in India you can bring them up.

 

[r3alist]

This is what you said.

No longer addressing the issues, you have to clutch at a non-issue on wording, though the links I shared and other comments I made make it perfectly clear.

By the way you did not differentiate between portfolio investment and capital investment yourself, you are only discussing the point because I raised it myself, and now you are running with it like a bit of googling allows you to flex as having any knowledge

A bit of regurgitation, a bit of ad hominem and then denial is the basic routine

If you have varifiable data from either government or independent agencies in India you can bring them up.

The neutral and productive takeaway is big chunks of data gathering is inherently difficult and requires extrapolation.

You will acknowledge this but then insist nothing else can be questioned or should be revised, as usual better off just admitting this early

 

[Vikramaditya1]

No longer addressing the issues, you have to clutch at a non-issue on wording, though the links I shared and other comments I made make it perfectly clear.

By the way you did not differentiate between portfolio investment and capital investment yourself, you are only discussing the point because I raised it myself, and now you are running with it like a bit of googling allows you to flex as having any knowledge

A bit of regurgitation, a bit of ad hominem and then denial is the basic routine

I don't read links because you already provided a supporting comment. What's the point of reading it again? So your comment itself was wrong to begin with so you can't fall back to the link to say you meant one specific thing. Which again is not an indicator of economy. Stock market represent health of different sectors it maybe over values or undervalued. You can't connect these two to claim Indian GDP numbers don't make sense.

The neutral and productive takeaway is big chunks of data gathering is inherently difficult and requires extrapolation.

You will acknowledge this but then insist nothing else can be questioned or should be revised, as usual better off just admitting this early

It doesn't, every country tracks employment this way. You are finding how unemployment and employment rates are counted around the world and say "Wait this is not accurate". Sample survey is how every country tracks it. Just like the one hour rule, you seem to be surprised that how unemployment rate is calculated and apply that to India. No shit, that's how every country does it. You can't go ask every person in the country, each state has agencies that collect data then applies it to the masses. It's a very effective and decentralised process happening all around the world. This not some peculiar method invented in India.

 

[r3alist]

don't read links because you already provided a supporting comment. What's the point of reading it again? So your comment itself was wrong to begin with so you can't fall back to the link to say you meant one specific thing. Which again is not an indicator of economy. Stock market represent health of different sectors it maybe over values or undervalued. You can't connect these two to claim Indian GDP numbers don't make sense.

blame me for your own confusion, and then scramble to answer my initial point, which you apparently never understood

If you even agree the nifty 50, for example might be overvalued, and then investors rotate away, what exactly are you disagreeing with? It means that investors think they are near peak value., or over priced.

It doesn't, every country tracks employment this way.

This is simply untrue, the UK and the US use a far more regular and granular seven day period versus the yearly extrapolation based on a month in India.

It is literally not the same.

Because one has robust levels of economy and data collection and the other does not.


......."As a week contains seven days, answers to [labor status metrics] are stored in one or more of seven separate variables... A code, one to seven, Monday to Sunday, is used within each variable."


First page

https://doc.ukdataservice.ac.uk/doc/4293/mrdoc/pdf/variabledetails.pdf

USA
Employment information is collected on the job held in the reference week, defined as the 7-day period, Sunday through Saturday, that includes the 12th of the month.

 

[NeptunesVortex]

Maruti Suzuki inaugurates 800-acre Kharkhoda plant in Haryana​

Maruti Suzuki inaugurates 800-acre Kharkhoda plant in Haryana - Introduction | Autocar India

Its annual production capacity will double from 5 lakh to 10 lakh units, making it one of the world's largest vehicle manufacturing facilities.

www.autocarindia.com