lightning f57
Trusted Member
I think trumps strategy is to keep a low intensity conflict going so Iran can't rebuild or rearm. At the same time to impose a blockade to create a complete economic collapse so Iran can surrender and do what he wants. Then when Iran is very weak to use small proxy groups to ferment unrest to topple the government.Egypt is in no shape to join any war, except maybe some jets. The Egyptian people know full well what is going on, as do all Arab people (people, not governments). Even with constant anti-Iranian propaganda from (state) media outlets in Arab countries, the average person in the Arab street hopes Iran fights on until it defeats the enemy.
Not that this matters in a dictatorship by the way.
I think the current bombing is nothing else than what has been done before. They are hitting military installations in the shore region of Iran for weeks now. No reason to believe this is any kind of retalliation.
The US can never send ground troops, never. Unless the Iranian government has become so weak it can't be considered a central government anymore. At that time, they'll send in their proxies like the KRG anyway and special forces to assist.
I don't see that happening any time soon. This is an air war, the US has goal, it doesn't look like it can achieve them, but now it's trying to pull in PGCC countries into it more openly.
I dont think his wedded to ground troops, special ops sure.
GCC countries dont have the muscle (man power) for supporting ground operations in Iran. In the region only Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan do, but none of them will send troops to attack Iran.
So it comes down to who blinks first, how long can trump market manipulate keep prices stable and slip through oil from SOH, whilst ramping up weapons production.
Then how long can Iran keep firing drones and missiles, continue some weapons manufacturing and keep its people onside with its policy and approach v US.





