Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Immortals]

I agree with parts of this

But we can do a lot: Eilat is not well defended against ballistic missiles

What will that do? Appropriate response is to hit Israeli military facility housing generals.

and we can start to accumulate uranium enriched to 90% to further minimise our 'breakout time'.

Not going to happen

Further, stop sending senior IRGC commanders to Syria - until we address Israel's qualitative dominance in intelligence, they are sitting ducks.

Also not going to happen. You need commanders on the ground.

Some of it is Israeli Intel gathering prowess, but most of it is IRGC ineptitude. Having meetings in well known areas and using interceptable comms and this whole embracing of “Martyrdom” means that these generals don’t care. They blow OpSec routinely. There is a reason Nasrallah doesn’t leave his various bunkers.

You could go to Syria with a $10,000 in your pocket and just talking to people on the street surmise where IRGC people are located and when. They stick out like sore thumbs.

 

[Agha Sher]

A limited ballistic missile strike on Eilat/Haifa or Be´er Sheva would be appropriate. Anything else will just be Iran taking a beating (again)

 

[Agha Sher]

Just now

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said Iran, while reserving its rights to take countermeasures, will decide on the type of reaction against Israel. Iranian ambassador to Damascus said the response will be “proportionate” and at the “right time and place”.

The usual bs, unfortunately...

 

[Immortals]

A limited ballistic missile strike on Eilat/Haifa or Be´er Sheva would be appropriate. Anything else will just be Iran taking a beating (again)

At least look at a map. Haifa and Eilat are in different areas. And Haifa is Israel’s main economic zone seaport.

Any BM launch is impossible to tell at time of launch where it’s going to land unless Iran overtly telegraphs the location so Israel knows.

If you are going to attack Israeli soil you might as well go for military targets like an airbase (where F-35 are housed) or military barracks.

If you are afraid of striking Israeli soil like so many are on here, then strike Israeli military encampments in Gaza or Golan Heights. Neither of those are Israeli soil under international law.

What you SHOULDNT do is attack an Israeli embassy. That’s just bad PR. No country will support such a strike on the international stage.

 

[Persian Gulf]

What will that do? Appropriate response is to hit Israeli military facility housing generals.

Establish an equation that any Israeli attack on Iranian territory will be responded to with an Iranian attack on Israeli territory.

I mentioned Eilat because according to Iranian OSINT it is the most vulnerable Israeli city to ballistic missile attacks.

 

[tsunset]

Just now

The Iranian people have gathered in Tehran to condemn Israel’s attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus killing 3, demanding a response against this brutal attack.

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[Immortals]

I mentioned Eilat because according to Iranian OSINT it is the most vulnerable Israeli city to ballistic missile attacks.

Whoever told you Eilat is most vulnerable is talking nonsense.

Eilate has been the target of many drone and BM attacks by Houthis and they have all largely failed outside of maybe 1-2 drones randomly getting thru.

Eilate is under heavy GPS jamming right now so any GPS based weapon will be thrown off course. And Arrow-3 & Arrow-2 batteries are located there. Not sure if David Sling also has coverage in the area. Point is Israel is tiny and densely packed with air defense and radars. This makes it tough to break its shield without mass salvos.

The weakest part of Israel is the Golan heights. That is the easiest area to strike and still avoid Israeli “soil”.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I agree. That's the game this IRI has chosen to play. I believe this scenario was definitely envisioned.

However the main question is: If your opponent is self-destructing and yet has the ability to cause pain AND directly engaging it will bolster it internally...what options are available? Anyone with a sense of strategy should be focusing on answering that question. The answer will point to the Iranian response.

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you have to weigh the benefit to their internal cohesion / external PR against the cost to Iran's own deterrence and cohesion. for me the balance this time favours the latter

 

[tsunset]

Tensions in the streets as people demand a response to the attacks

Iran is obliged to retaliate at this point, people are gathering on the streets asking for a retaliation

 

[Persian Gulf]

Whoever told you Eilat is most vulnerable is talking nonsense.

Eilate has been the target of many drone and BM attacks by Houthis and they have all largely failed outside of maybe 1-2 drones randomly getting thru.

Eilate is under heavy GPS jamming right now so any GPS based drone will be thrown off course. And Arrow-3 & Arrow-2 batteries are located there. Not sure if David Sling also has coverage in the area. Point is Israel is tiny and densely packed with air defense and radars. This makes it tough to break its shield without mass salvos.

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he's not talking nonsense and he is talking specifically about ABM systems not drones. Israel has only a very small amount of Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 interceptors at Eilat

 

[Persian Gulf]

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IRGC leadership now has a personal vested interest in establishing some form of deterrence

 

[Sarhang]

Whoever told you Eilat is most vulnerable is talking nonsense.

Eilate has been the target of many drone and BM attacks by Houthis and they have all largely failed outside of maybe 1-2 drones randomly getting thru.

Eilate is under heavy GPS jamming right now so any GPS based weapon will be thrown off course. And Arrow-3 & Arrow-2 batteries are located there. Not sure if David Sling also has coverage in the area. Point is Israel is tiny and densely packed with air defense and radars. This makes it tough to break its shield without mass salvos.

The weakest part of Israel is the Golan heights. That is the easiest area to strike and still avoid Israeli “soil”.

Weakest part is IDF assets in Gaza.

 

[Immortals]

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you have to weigh the benefit to their internal cohesion / external PR against the cost to Iran's own deterrence and cohesion. for me the balance this time favours the latter

This whole “Israel is crumbling” facade is a joke. What part of Israel is crumbling exactly?

Did Iran crumble from sanctions?
Did Iran crumble from gas riots? Amini protests?
Did Russia crumble from sanctions and embargo’s?
Did Russia collapse from Ukraine war?

is Israel experiencing unpopularity on global stage? Sure
Is Israel experiencing civil unrest due to multiple issues? Yes
Does this correlate to Israel imploding? Absolutely not. Unless you think Iran and Russia are also imploding.

Countries can be unpopular and have civil unrest and still function and prosper. In case of Israel, the West has yet to levy any real economic sanctions on a Israel and in fact still openly supports Israel. So as long as the EU/America continue support Israel and economically trade with Israel, then any talk of Israeli collapse is fantasy.

Countries don’t just collapse because they are unpopular or people riot in the streets. Or else Iran, North Korea, China, Russia, Pakistan, Jordan, etc would have imploded years ago.

Thus this notion of “don’t attack Israel they are really unpopular right now and attacking them will undo all these gains”. What gains? A waterless, toothless UN resolution? No one will hold Israel accountable, just like no one holds Ukraine and Russia accountable for their war crimes.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[lightning f57]

IMO the retaliation has to be proportionate and military targets should be taken not an embassy. Golan, Gaza, WB will have lots of targets. The question is around which ones will be essiest and likely to succeed.