Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

ShapurII said:
Nobody is offering any solutions though.

We can not stay in this situation for too long (naval blockade and economic war, waiting for the US to attack us again) and we cannot defeat the US or build the bomb either. So, what is the solution now?

Trump knows that time is on his side and he's not going to negotiate with us to end the war. Any negotiation will be deception again.
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There are pressures building in the U.S. as well. They are spending a lot of money just to maintain 50% pre war oil flows. Inflation remains a problem and they are about to increase interest rates again, which trump hates. Bond yields are in the zone where they intervene, again. SPR is in 40+ year lows.

I am sure Iran is finding creative ways to evade the blockade to some extent (land routes, oil mixing, back door deals).

It doesn’t seem like it would be too hard for Iran to materially decrease oil flows by simply attacking more ships and actually sinking them. It’s not hard to fire more than 1-2 missiles and drones per 2 days. It is baffling that Iran is not doing this.
 
Persian Gulf said:
There are pressures building in the U.S. as well. They are spending a lot of money just to maintain 50% pre war oil flows. Inflation remains a problem and they are about to increase interest rates again, which trump hates. Bond yields are in the zone where they intervene, again. SPR is in 40+ year lows.

I am sure Iran is finding creative ways to evade the blockade to some extent (land routes, oil mixing, back door deals).

It doesn’t seem like it would be too hard for Iran to materially decrease oil flows by simply attacking more ships and actually sinking them. It’s not hard to fire more than 1-2 missiles and drones per 2 days. It is baffling that Iran is not doing this.
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the problem is Trump doesn’t seem to agree, so he has to be made to agree
 
ShapurII said:
Nobody is offering any solutions though.

We can not stay in this situation for too long (naval blockade and economic war, waiting for the US to attack us again) and we cannot defeat the US or build the bomb either. So, what is the solution now?

Trump knows that time is on his side and he's not going to negotiate with us to end the war. Any negotiation will be deception again.
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If you choose not to engage in the fight, your only option is to be patient and wait for Trump to leave office, hoping for a Democratic President who will restore an agreement or sign a deal. What else can you do if you refuse to fight?

What is hard to face is the fact that Iran had the means to end this war on her terms but refused to do so.

You know, my father is an elderly, rural, Anatolian Sunni man who is unwilling to recognize Shia as Muslims, yet he holds a different view about Iranians as a nation and society. Despite his religious beliefs, he has never doubted Iran's nationhood or its rich historical traditions and centuries of statehood. The Arabs he was familiar with seemed new to this game and very weak minded, but he regarded the Iranians as equals to the Turks without a doubt.

Sometimes, when I share the current situation with him by simply summarizing a few pages from this thread, he outright accuses me of lying. lol. In his worldview, he struggles to understand how Iranians could repeatedly make such strategic errors that have led to the present circumstances.

He's conservative and traditional but explained a few days ago that Imams shouldn't lead a country. This is equal to the renaissance era in Europe. lol

The whole situation is genuinely concerning, and I wonder how you guys can sleep at night. The situation is stressful.

And there's no assurance that Turkey or any other nation wouldn't find itself in a similar predicament as Iran in 15 years ir so. Just two or three significant geopolitical blunders can jeopardize a nation's future.
 
retaxis said:
So america went to sanctions which failed then they went to war which failed so they are back to sanctions again.
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It's the blockade that is concerning. I believe the Iranian leadership could manage the sanctions for years until a new deal is signed but the naval embargo is absolutely devastating. Perhaps Iran can adapt and the country's flexibility is going to surprise us all, but are the Iranian people ready for the long game or are they already exhausted?
 
Eşbah said:
It's the blockade that is concerning. I believe the Iranian leadership could manage the sanctions for years until a new deal is signed but the naval embargo is absolutely devastating. Perhaps Iran can adapt and the country's flexibility is going to surprise us all, but are the Iranian people ready for the long game or are they already exhausted?
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Hard to say but we will just have to wait and see. How devastating it is will be shown by how much protests there will be on the streets.
 
Just the same old failed policies of his father ie. ‘Resistance Economy” and “strategic patience”



And anyone who praises Pezeshkhian is a failure as a leader

 
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SPR on 21 Aug 289.726m

Its dropping a few million every week. So even if oil is leaving its not enough to stop depletion of reserves.

Iran being less aggressive with tanker traffic also points to some collusion going on in trying to get oil out.
 
lightning f57 said:
SPR on 21 Aug 289.726m

Its dropping a few million every week. So even if oil is leaving its not enough to stop depletion of reserves.

Iran being less aggressive with tanker traffic also points to some collusion going on in trying to get oil out.
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The SPR drainage is about 650K barrels per day roughly on 4-8 week average.

Do you think if that 650K stopped, that oil would go from $90 to $150? Does that make sense to you? After SPR stops there is still commercial inventories that can get drained and then exports banned etc. China has a 1B barrel reserve still it could release into world supply.

Right now it’s not yet an OIL supply problem it’s more a DISTILLATES (like diesel) problem. Sure you can make the arguement that there aren’t enough oil supply in the right places. But the other problem is the remaining refineries who are still online and whose job it is to convert the oil into finished products isn’t enough to meet global demand after Ukraine attacked Russian refineries and Iran war. You don’t put oil in your car or to heat your home or to power your freight you use the finished product like heating oil, gasoline, and disesl.

That’s why diesel prices is high right now and gas prices elevated. Because the inventory of diesel is being drawn down faster than the refineries can more of it.

So if Iran wants to create a real crisis it would focus attacking refineries in the Middle East and Israel rather than a simple tanker carrying 1M barrels of oil.
 
Israeli Knesset want to now wipe Turkeyie, Egypt, and Iran off the map...
 
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