Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

 

[lightning f57]

The SPR drainage is about 650K barrels per day roughly on 4-8 week average.

Do you think if that 650K stopped, that oil would go from $90 to $150? Does that make sense to you? After SPR stops there is still commercial inventories that can get drained and then exports banned etc. China has a 1B barrel reserve still it could release into world supply.

Right now it’s not yet an OIL supply problem it’s more a DISTILLATES (like diesel) problem. Sure you can make the arguement that there aren’t enough oil supply in the right places. But the other problem is the remaining refineries who are still online and whose job it is to convert the oil into finished products isn’t enough to meet global demand after Ukraine attacked Russian refineries and Iran war. You don’t put oil in your car or to heat your home or to power your freight you use the finished product like heating oil, gasoline, and disesl.

That’s why diesel prices is high right now and gas prices elevated. Because the inventory of diesel is being drawn down faster than the refineries can more of it.

So if Iran wants to create a real crisis it would focus attacking refineries in the Middle East and Israel rather than a simple tanker carrying 1M barrels of oil.The SPR drainage is about 650K barrels per day roughly on 4-8 week average.

Do you think if that 650K stopped, that oil would go from $90 to $150? Does that make sense to you? After SPR stops there is still commercial inventories that can get drained and then exports banned etc. China has a 1B barrel reserve still it could release into world supply.

Right now it’s not yet an OIL supply problem it’s more a DISTILLATES (like diesel) problem. Sure you can make the arguement that there aren’t enough oil supply in the right places. But the other problem is the remaining refineries who are still online and whose job it is to convert the oil into finished products isn’t enough to meet global demand after Ukraine attacked Russian refineries and Iran war. You don’t put oil in your car or to heat your home or to power your freight you use the finished product like heating oil, gasoline, and disesl.

That’s why diesel prices is high right now and gas prices elevated. Because the inventory of diesel is being drawn down faster than the refineries can more of it.

So if Iran wants to create a real crisis it would focus attacking refineries in the Middle East and Israel rather than a simple tanker carrying 1M barrels of oil.

Drop in SPR will create more panic in the market pushing prices up. The more problematic thing for the US and rest of the world is disesl prices that have nearly doubled since the start of the war. US refineries are working at Max capacity to refineries disesl problem is there isnt enough for other refineries to lesson the overall economic burden.

Diesel prices are major component of inflation, farming, transportation all rely on it.

Spot price of diesel in late January was $2.3 per gallon, now is around $4.23 (equivalent to $177 per barrel).

In September watch how the fed raises interest rates, the tsnammi is getting closer for world recession.

 

[Flotilla]

we know that hardliners love to blame everything on reformists when they are not much better themselves, but there is no point dwelling on the past

Well, a war is won not only by the side that wins the final battle, but by the one that makes the fewest mistakes.

No one doubts that the reformists make plenty of errors. But Trump makes mistakes at every level—economically, in domestic policy, and even in his dealings with allies. Even if Iran were to make similar blunders, the difference lies in the fact that the US aims to force Iran’s capitulation, wage economic warfare against China, and—to top it all off—control the EU.

I do not believe the time is right for open warfare. Although the US deserves to be bombed out of the Middle East, it might be possible to win the war without the destruction of a single additional bridge or port.

 

[Immortals]

 

[Immortals]

 

[Persian Gulf]

by comparison, during the peak of the war, Iran fired an average of 100 drones per day.

 

[Persian Gulf]

oil flow steadily increasing

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[Immortals]

A) many mines were likely above ground and destroyed in suprise attack (another reason for suprise attack). Doubt they were storing mines in mountains.

B) Iran likely thought the conflict wouldn’t last long and wanted to prevent a permanent mine field in the strait

C) by the time Iran wanted to deploy mines it was too late as Iranian air defenses along coast line had collapsed

 

[Immortals]

If true, then iran has down 2 waves of attack on shipping in the SoH. A strange and unusual sight.

 

[Persian Gulf]

C) by the time Iran wanted to deploy mines it was too late

story of IRI’s life

Shouldn’t be hard to manufacture new mines anyway