Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Ali_Baba]

If IRGC wanted to hit a USN ship probably they would.

I honestly don't think they can. Period. Yemen could not, and they really really really tried. The systems are technically not good enough.

But, the real question is, why even bother firing missiles if you do not intending on hitting, and in return getting damage to your own tanker fleet like this ?

 

[Immortals]

I honestly don't think they can. Period. Yemen could not, and they really really really tried. The systems are technically not good enough.

But, the real question is, why even bother firing missiles if you do not intending on hitting, and in return getting damage to your own tanker fleet like this ?

I think they could. If they couldn’t then US navy ships would be in SoH sailing back and forth.

The issue is what would be the benefit? Creating a mass casualty naval event would not lead to an agreement. It would not lead to closure of SoH. It has many unknowns and Iran is afraid of escalation.

Thus if you are afraid of escalation of military casualties, you must go with economic escalation.

There are 10-15 ships doing STS transfers off the coast of UAE/Oman, how come Iran hasn’t attacked these vulnerable and defenseless ships? Why not attack the storage tanks that hold the fuel that is boarded on to the tankers? There is the UAE pipeline that is ferrying 2MBPD sitting out in the open and vulnerable. Why hasn’t that been attacked?

There are plenty of non military targets that can increase Iranian leverage, but it chooses not to go after them. The fact of matter is Iran is back in ‘strategic patience’ mode. While they may occasionally lash out with some symbolic attacks, do some military damage here or there, it is quite clear that Mojtaba is not a military leader or an aggressive fighter. He is following his father’s disastrous foreign policy.

 

[Immortals]

You can see Iran isn’t serious about fighting a war. When your opponent can fly big defenseless airforce tankers 50KM off your shoreline, then it shows that you are not fighting a war. Do you think Ukraine would allow Russia to do this?

It’s clear there is some unwritten rules to this current stage of conflict. Iran isn’t trying to push the U.S. out of the SoH or PG, it’s merely trying to do tit for tat attacks while hoping the energy crisis intensifies.

 

[KAL-EL]

If IRGC wanted to hit a USN ship probably they would.
They just launch some missiles against them. But a saturation attack will deffinitively hit with them.
Remember a DDG just carry some ESSM missiles and when finished those or just diminish their number, the probabilities of hitting them exponentially increase.
Just launch 3 missiles daily until they exhaust their ESSM in their VLS...

Yes, keep firing on USN ships. Absolutely nothing will happen in return.

 

[GWXP]

In response to US striking 3 Iranian oil tankers, Iran should strike Kuwait's or Bahrain's oil infrastructure.

Iran should impose costs on US by striking regional oil production.

 

[Shags101]

Arabs attacking Israel? Good Joke.
View attachment 214054

Iiraqis Lebanese Palestinians and Yemenis all Arabs but I get what you mean Arab states lead by corrupt leaders who fear their hold on power would disappear the next day

 

[Shags101]

Yes, keep firing on USN ships. Absolutely nothing will happen in return.

…….well to be fair itt is in self defense and we both know how you feel and I feel and multiple other people feel about this war being unnecessary but I can’t deny the Iranians have the right to self defense either

 

[KAL-EL]

…….well to be fair itt is in self defense and we both know how you feel and I feel and multiple other people feel about this war being unnecessary but I can’t deny the Iranians have the right to self defense either

Well sure, they do have a right to self-defense. But a serious escalation will be met with another series escalation

 

[Ali_Baba]

I think they could. If they couldn’t then US navy ships would be in SoH sailing back and forth.

The issue is what would be the benefit? Creating a mass casualty naval event would not lead to an agreement. It would not lead to closure of SoH. It has many unknowns and Iran is afraid of escalation.

Thus if you are afraid of escalation of military casualties, you must go with economic escalation.

There are 10-15 ships doing STS transfers off the coast of UAE/Oman, how come Iran hasn’t attacked these vulnerable and defenseless ships? Why not attack the storage tanks that hold the fuel that is boarded on to the tankers? There is the UAE pipeline that is ferrying 2MBPD sitting out in the open and vulnerable. Why hasn’t that been attacked?

There are plenty of non military targets that can increase Iranian leverage, but it chooses not to go after them. The fact of matter is Iran is back in ‘strategic patience’ mode. While they may occasionally lash out with some symbolic attacks, do some military damage here or there, it is quite clear that Mojtaba is not a military leader or an aggressive fighter. He is following his father’s disastrous foreign policy.

This pointless attack by the IRGC has cost the use of 3 tankers. Is that a good exchange? Maybe time to stop attacking the USN if you have no intention of hitting anything?

 

[Shags101]

Well sure, they do have a right to self-defense. But a serious escalation will be met with another series escalation

And trump striking whenever he wishes isn’t met with escalation Iranians give it to their credit in these rounds have been defending can’t blame them being tired to wait for the other guy to go first honestly it’s really simple leave the other guy alone trump is a hero he’s darth sidious in this bad b movie

 

[Ali_Baba]

An additional item on the IRGC doing these pointless attacks against the USN.

Don't the lives of Iranian soldiers who operate these missiles have any value? Surely, if you ask these operators enter the military field of battle to deploy and operate and fire these systems, should it not be the basis that their lives are worth some level of "military success" in something meaningful for Iran, for them, their families if they die in trying to do those missions ??

How many times on this thread, have we have of unfortunate members of the Iranian Armed forces get killed on the ground in the open fields, trying to operate these antiship and ballistic missiles ? How many of these Iranian missions were to "just wave the little finger at the USN in a pointless flag waving exercise ??", and was the loss of their lives worth was was being asked of them?

Iran really needs to stop these pointless missions against the USN and not waste the lives of its soldiers so casually as it is doing right now......

( I will stop here ... ).

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[KAL-EL]

And trump striking whenever he wishes isn’t met with escalation Iranians give it to their credit in these rounds have been defending can’t blame them being tired to wait for the other guy to go first honestly it’s really simple leave the other guy alone trump is a hero he’s darth sidious in this bad b movie

Well, if the Iranians aren't going to wait for the US then they could strike power plants and water desalination plants

A good example being dimona

 

[FIsa]

If we stop debating on who is winning or losing and focus on what each side believes in :

US thinks it has the upper hand.
Iran thinks it has the upper hand.

In this scenario it makes no sense for either side to escalate. Both sides should be consolidating positions to either wait for the other side to fold in, or go for a big escalation to finish the other sides resolve at the right opportunity.

Long story short , it’s wait and see strategy from both sides and we will see a form of escalation at some point between now and end of the year *

* nov mid terms and global oil reserves at a difficult spot by Nov 26 to Feb 27 type period