Syrian Civil War and The future of Syria after liberation

[retaxis]

Doesn't Syria have their own oil? Or do they not control it or have the infrastructure to convert and pump it?

 

[Watandar]

I am surprised Turks and Saudis are not doing more to help Syria after they invested so much in regime change

Iran lost $50 billion in investments in Syria and these guys won and don't even want to take advantage? what is going on

There is a contest going on in Syria between Tukiye and Israel and Khaleej wants Iran completely destroyed first. So I think that's why they are in wait and see mode on Syria. The country and its situation isn't going anywhere.

 

[Watandar]

Doesn't Syria have their own oil? Or do they not control it or have the infrastructure to convert and pump it?

They have a small oil production like many countries, enough to satisfy a percentage of domestic demand but nothing like GCC or Russia or Venezuela.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Doesn't Syria have their own oil? Or do they not control it or have the infrastructure to convert and pump it?

apparently Syria imports the vast majority of its diesel and gas:

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[Persian Gulf]

There is a contest going on in Syria between Tukiye and Israel and Khaleej wants Iran completely destroyed first. So I think that's why they are in wait and see mode on Syria. The country and its situation isn't going anywhere.

But Israel doesn't care about reconstruction, they only care about military development and controlling a strategic buffer zone near the border, so I don't see why that would stop Turkish companies investing in Syria

 

[mangekyo]

There is a contest going on in Syria between Tukiye and Israel and Khaleej wants Iran completely destroyed first. So I think that's why they are in wait and see mode on Syria. The country and its situation isn't going anywhere.

You got it all wrong. There’s no contest. Israel wants Syria broken, toothless and indebted forever. This is how they break countries and remove threats. IMF/Turkey/PGCC they all work for the same system who ultimately serves Israel.

 

[Persian Gulf]

this looks bad

 

[Persian Gulf]

aren't they wasting fuel by driving around causing all this commotion?

 

[Ravenman]

There is a contest going on in Syria between Tukiye and Israel and Khaleej wants Iran completely destroyed first. So I think that's why they are in wait and see mode on Syria. The country and its situation isn't going anywhere.

Pfff, Turkey lost alone 45 billion for 5 million Syrians inside Turkey (basic loans, free healthcare, free childcare, housing).

And dont let me start about those 4 militairy operations of the TAF in Syria, the upkeep costs of the militairy in North Syria and the training of the FSA and the reconstructions in Idlib.

Maybe it was 100 billion in total without any financial result. Only US and China can afford such financial losses.

Turkey has not enough money to spend it on one target. There are also problems with Greece in the West and the production of Kaan, Altay, Steel Dome, Tayfun etc.

 

[Ravenman]

this looks bad

Stupid Arabs. For a decade long the Kurds and the US were controling your oilfields and exporting it to Israel.

You didnt protest then and waited for the Turks to crush thw YPG.

And now because of the war against Iran fuelprices are skyrocketing worldwide and you decide to protest.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Pfff, Turkey lost alone 45 billion for 5 million Syrians inside Turkey (basic loans, free healthcare, free childcare, housing).

And dont let me start about those 4 militairy operations of the TAF in Syria, the upkeep costs of the militairy in North Syria and the training of the FSA and the reconstructions in Idlib.

Maybe it was 100 billion in total without any financial result. Only US and China can afford such financial losses.

Turkey has not enough money to spend it on one target. There are also problems with Greece in the West and the production of Kaan, Altay, Steel Dome, Tayfun etc.

isn't it quite lucrative to have Turkish companies win tenders to build power plants and residential blocs etc in Syria?

and in any case, having a strong Syria would be a good buffer against Israel. but obviously it is very difficult to sustain that in the face of Israeli aggression.

 

[retaxis]

Just shows how fragile things are in Syria. Won't take much to revert back to violence

 

[Haz]

did the lifting of US sanctions help at all? why isn't Saudi and Qatar etc investing heavily in Syria, at least for reconstruction projects etc?

The lifting of sanctions only came into effect 2 months ago, they barely kicked in, so no, we haven't received any meaningful funding or investments as a result of them being lifted yet.

The thing with external investments is that there are many other factors taken into consideration before foreign capital becomes interested and starts flowing in, and we still have a long way to go to meet those conditions. The lifting of the sanctions was the first and necessary first step, but you also need to have security and stability, and given the fact that we literally just reclaimed the entire eastern third of our country from the separatist Kurds less than six months ago, and are still in the middle of the integration process with them, things are not as stable and secure enough yet.

Not to mention the random acts of violence that periodically happen from some ISIS terrorist remnants or ex-regime fighters, or some random criminal gang. They've become alot less frequent over time and security has steadily improved, but it's only been a year and half since they took over, and far less than that in the entire eastern half of the country. There's still alot more work to do, and quite a ways to go before it gets to a good enough level to gain investor confidence.

We also need to train and properly build an entire new professional police force to maintain order and general security everywhere, and that takes time to meet the needs of the entire country, it's no trivial task. We're making decent progress but we still need a lot more time to fully cover all areas properly.

The worst conditions that we are still seriously short on and have to be addressed urgently to facilitate investments coming in is proper to have government institutions and structures in place, codified laws, legal systems etc.. Basically we need to build a decent administrative state, with proper laws and institutions set up to regulate commerce, banking, contracts, legal stuff etc. Right now that is the biggest weakness of the current government, for obvious reasons, that's not what they're experience in, so they're learning and trying to build all these aspects of statecraft on the fly, and there is a long way to go on this front for us.

And ofcourse, there is always that big elephant in the room, the cancer that never dies. I have no idea how much Israel's presence and occupation in the southern part will be a factor in investor decisions to commit here, but it can't help.

In short, no, lifting of sanctions have not brought in any funds yet. Our only hope in the short term is a rich Gulf country throwing us a bone we desperately need right now. They did promise to invest tens of billions a year ago, but we've received nothing before the war started and now all those commitments are on hold, and we really don't know if they'll ever actually come at this point tbh. It's not a rosy situation.

 

[Haz]

Well that's where the IMF/World Bank come in with their money injection and afterwards Syria will be dependent on them forever, as designed. Jolani is likely engineering these protests to aim for that or cold hard cash from Khaleej.

Correct on the IMF take, completely wrong on Jolani.

Man I'm going to respectfully ask you to stop making so many ignorant claims about shit you literally don't have a single clue about. You don't know a proper correct thing about our country and what happens there every day.

This was not a sudden and surprise event, a million things have happened over the last year that led to this that you are not aware of and never would be, because you actually have to be Syrian following daily events there, our Syrian Arabic media, our socials, and all the discussion with your fellow Syrian countrymen to know about them. Please refrain from constantly making such confident claims that are completely and outlandishly not based on any actual facts.

I can promise you with 100% certainty that not only Al-Sharaa is not suicidal or stupid enough to even contemplate orchestrating this, but he's actually been dreading that it would happen. This is easily the most serious threat to his rule since he took over, you simply just don't understand what's going on in Syria, please don't pretend like you're an expert on our country and people and every single event. These protests are just the tip of the iceberg, this crisis is going to be long and severe for us, and I wouldn't be surprised at all that he doesn't even survive it.

You can keep on making up cute little fairy tales and theories based on very superficial understanding about our country and situations, or you can take it from some one that actually knows what's really been going on there. I prefer discourse rooted in hard facts and evidence, not just some made up pulled out of the air theories that sound nice. I'll leave it at that.