The Mecca Pact’s First Test Has Exposed Its Central Weakness

[Irfan Baloch]

Feel sorry for Saudi, they are feeling helpless.
USA and other partners - only statement level support, they are getting.

Now - looking all around to get the support including from Israel

Europe's capacity for war tested as Saudi Arabia seeks support to counter Houthis | The National

Telling lack of available forces as Riyadh consults on political appetite for military backing

www.thenationalnews.com

Is Saudi Arabia turning to Israel for help against Houthi attacks despite its new defence pact?

Recent reporting says yes — at least on the intelligence front. Diplomatic sources cited separately by Israel Hayom, Walla, and The Jerusalem Post say Riyadh has sought intelligence assistance from…

www.middleeastmonitor.com

I know what you indians are doing.

you are wishing that Turkey and Pakistan join the Saudis campain on Yemen.

your trolling is not so subtle on social media platforms, acting as Pakistanis cursing Iran and offering blood and soul to Saudis .. as well as acting as Saudis cursing and indulting Pakistanis for taking money and not serving.

Saudis have the power to end this conflict with yemen once they stop bombing its cities.
the Yemeni fighters of all clans will stop their retaliation against Saudis as well.

 

[Mr X]

I guess it’s time for me to get perm banned,
The fact you compared Yemenis to Afghans is a wild take. Yemen history goes back to 3k years known history. They aren’t some low iq people like the Afghans are.

Thankless nation? As I recall Yemenis aren’t in the millions in Saudi Arabia earning and using the system and then cursing SA like afghans have done in Pakistan.
Neither have I observed a suicide bomber in SA vs hundreds of afghans have done in Pakistan. You and some other really pushing these narratives due to your own sectarian and political reasons - I could only attribute to these reasons to make sense of what you and others have written about Yemen.

Pakistan hasn’t staved or conducted an air campaign killing 300k-500k Afghans like the Saudis have done in Yemen. Pakistan hasn’t taken over Afghan territory like the Saudis (Qatar and UAE included) stolen strategic islands in Red Sea from Yemen. Pakistan hasn’t brought in Arab and South American mercenaries to wage war in Afghanistan like what the Sauds and UAE have done so in Yemen.

As for a ground war, get ready to lose Pakistan by actively taking a side in this conflict especially when the whole world sees who’s on whose side. The forces will release will end with Pakistan being dismantled - this I can 100% assure you and every other Pro-Saud commenter here

Well, I am not sectarian. I respect both Iran and Saudi Arabia. I don’t consider myself as Sunni or Shia.

There is a difference between Yemenis and Houthis and I have a lot of respect for the people of Yemen, not Houthis

 

[lightning f57]

Well, I am not sectarian. I respect both Iran and Saudi Arabia. I don’t consider myself as Sunni or Shia.

There is a difference between Yemenis and Houthis and I have a lot of respect for the people of Yemen, not Houthis

Houthis govern area with 20m people within. Their ranks have swollen from 5000 fighters in early 2000s to over 300k fighters now.

There is not a military solution to this conflict, unless large ground troops of 500k+ are committed with heavy weapons, tanks, choppers etc. In the latter scenario we will see carnage like in Ukraine/Russia.

Both sides need to be pushed to diplomacy killing one another wont end this conflict.

 

[Cipher212]

The Saudis (and the Gulf states) are the weakest link here. Besides money, they can offer little else. The Saudis have been fighting the Houthis since 2014. Aside from a ceasefire, they have very little to show for it.

I doubt the Houthis can seriously hurt the Saudis, but they will test them and this new pact. They may not respond today, but what about later?

Exactly. Is there even a single battle hardened Saudi unit that has learned how to beat Houthis in Yemen? Are they capable of passing on knowledge onto Pakistani or Turkish units?

Do Saudis even understand the concept of training and tactics or do they think exercises are for photoshoots only.

I think it's something the army understands well though. That's why they e always resisted requests to go fight in Yemen

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

I know what you indians are doing.

you are wishing that Turkey and Pakistan join the Saudis campain on Yemen.

your trolling is not so subtle on social media platforms, acting as Pakistanis cursing Iran and offering blood and soul to Saudis .. as well as acting as Saudis cursing and indulting Pakistanis for taking money and not serving.

Saudis have the power to end this conflict with yemen once they stop bombing its cities.
the Yemeni fighters of all clans will stop their retaliation against Saudis as well.

Frankly, we knew the basic reality from the first day of this agreement. Now that Indians are reacting this way, isn’t it something Pakistanis would laugh about too? If India had a similar agreement and was in the same situation, and watching the war from a distance? Pakistanis would probably react the same way. That’s simply human nature.

Look at the possible scenarios:

1. Saudi–Iran war: The US and Western countries would likely support Saudi Arabia, while China and Russia would likely provide indirect support to Iran. Would Pakistan and Turkey really risk directly fighting their neighbour Iran for Saudi Arabia? Would Turkey take that risk? Would Pakistan take that risk? Very doubtful.

2. Turkey–Israel war: The US and West would likely back Israel, while China and Russia could remain more cautious. Would Saudi Arabia or Pakistan directly enter the war against Israel and risk their relations with the US and West? Again, very doubtful.

3. India–Pakistan war: The US and West would probably push strongly for a ceasefire. China could support Pakistan indirectly, while Russia could continue weapons and energy support to India. Turkey might strongly support Pakistan politically or militarily with weapons supply support, and Israel could support India in the same way. But would any of these countries actually risk directly entering a war between two nuclear states? Highly unlikely.

So the real issue is simple: on paper, the agreement may look very strong. But when the choice is between fulfilling the agreement and taking a major national risk, every country will ultimately put its own interests first.

That’s the real loophole: an agreement can promise support, but when the cost becomes war, every country will ultimately calculate its own interests first.

This kind of agreement may have been more useful during the Cold War, or against groups or countries like the Taliban or the Houthis that don’t have a powerful state or major military backing behind them.

But the Saudi–Houthi conflict has exposed the limitations of this agreement very quickly and much earlier than many people expected.

The Houthis have even attempted attack connected to Mecca, one of the most important holy sites in Islam. They have also carried out repeated attacks against Saudi territory. If an agreement cannot provide meaningful protection in such a situation, then it naturally raises questions about what practical value the agreement actually has.

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

Frankly, we knew the basic reality from the first day of this agreement. Now that Indians are reacting this way, isn’t it something Pakistanis would laugh about too? If India had a similar agreement and was in the same situation, and watching the war from a distance? Pakistanis would probably react the same way. That’s simply human nature.

Look at the possible scenarios:

1. Saudi–Iran war: The US and Western countries would likely support Saudi Arabia, while China and Russia would likely provide indirect support to Iran. Would Pakistan and Turkey really risk directly fighting their neighbour Iran for Saudi Arabia? Would Turkey take that risk? Would Pakistan take that risk? Very doubtful.

2. Turkey–Israel war: The US and West would likely back Israel, while China and Russia could remain more cautious. Would Saudi Arabia or Pakistan directly enter the war against Israel and risk their relations with the US and West? Again, very doubtful.

3. India–Pakistan war: The US and West would probably push strongly for a ceasefire. China could support Pakistan indirectly, while Russia could continue weapons and energy support to India. Turkey might strongly support Pakistan politically or militarily with weapons supply support, and Israel could support India in the same way. But would any of these countries actually risk directly entering a war between two nuclear states? Highly unlikely.

So the real issue is simple: on paper, the agreement may look very strong. But when the choice is between fulfilling the agreement and taking a major national risk, every country will ultimately put its own interests first.

That’s the real loophole: an agreement can promise support, but when the cost becomes war, every country will ultimately calculate its own interests first.

This kind of agreement may have been more useful during the Cold War, or against groups or countries like the Taliban or the Houthis that don’t have a powerful state or major military backing behind them.

But the Saudi–Houthi conflict has exposed the limitations of this agreement very quickly and much earlier than many people expected.

The Houthis have even attempted attack connected to Mecca, one of the most important holy sites in Islam. They have also carried out repeated attacks against Saudi territory. If an agreement cannot provide meaningful protection in such a situation, then it naturally raises questions about what practical value the agreement actually has.

good to know your view (limited and superficial) of these events

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

good to know your view (limited and superficial) of these events

Because I don’t live in a delusional world, with my limited knowledge, I do understand how international politics actually works. Every country will always put its own people’s safety, national security and national interests first. No country today is going to take a major military risk simply for another country.

The Cold War was a completely different strategic environment, with two major blocs and very different security calculations. Today, countries have far more complicated interests and partnerships, so agreements like this can have very different limitations when tested in a real crisis now.

Such a bloc or alliance is really useful today only when the opposing side is not strong enough or does not pose a serious threat. Once the other side becomes powerful or the risks become too high, every country starts putting its own security and national interests first.

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

Because I don’t live in a delusional world, with my limited knowledge, I do understand how international politics actually works. Every country will always put its own people’s safety, national security and national interests first. No country today is going to take a major military risk simply for another country.

The Cold War was a completely different strategic environment, with two major blocs and very different security calculations. Today, countries have far more complicated interests and partnerships, so agreements like this can have very different limitations when tested in a real crisis now.

great, sir.. I dont have much to say..

otherwise, you would feel disrespected, bec. in your eyes, anything I say, would lead to lowering 'hard earned' status Bharat and Mata!