The rebel offensive that shook Saudi Arabia
Riyadh has been thrown into crisis after Yemeni forces it helped arm and train were overrun by the Iran-backed Houthis
Some buried their weapons in the desert. Others sold them in local markets. All escaped in the hope of surviving.
As the Houthis rained missiles and drones on their foes, Yemeni government-aligned forces withdrew south in the night, opening the pathway for the Iranian-backed rebels to capture the Red Sea port of Mocha last week and march on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, tightening their grip over the strategic maritime route.“We discovered that most of our colleagues had already fled,” said Hassan, a government-aligned fighter. “We had no option but to abandon Mocha that same night and retreat.”
The collapse of Hassan’s faction has thrown Saudi Arabia, which helped arm and train the anti-Houthi forces and is now seeking to drive back this month’s lightning rebel offensive, into its biggest crisis in years.
It has reignited a conflict from which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has long sought to extricate the kingdom, and has helped drive crude prices to their highest levels since mid-May.Hassan, who asked that his real name not be used, said he and his comrades — part of the National Resistance Forces — buried their AK-47 assault rifles in the desert rather than be forced back to the front lines.
They pretended to be displaced civilians as they sought refuge in government-controlled provinces further south.“When we saw that our leaders had already fled and that we were being left as victims of the war, we fled towards Aden,” he said
The Houthis, who control much of Yemen’s populous north, are a cohesive, ideologically motivated, Islamist force who have fought multiple wars over the past two decades, produce their own increasingly sophisticated weaponry, and receive arms and technical support from Iran.
They have endured both a years-long bombing campaign by a Saudi-led coalition that intervened in Yemen’s war in 2015 and months of US air strikes after they began attacking ships in the Red Sea following the start of the Gaza war in 2023.And they are ruthless, accused of conscripting children and oppressively ruling areas under their control.
Set against them is a collection of disparate factions, ostensibly aligned to the weak Yemeni government, but which often have competing agendas. Analysts estimate that Saudi Arabia had up to 400,000 Yemeni “fighters” on their payroll before the most recent offensive. But questions loomed over their effectiveness, and those on the coast proved to be no match for the Houthis.“
There was a lack of relationships, an underestimation of the other side, a lack of intelligence, bad co-ordination and a very weak communication system between the different forces,” said Farea al-Muslimi at Chatham House. “And the Houthis don’t care about their local population . . . all the revenues they made, they put into the war effort.”
The anti-Houthi alliance received a major blow at the beginning of the year when a rift over Yemen between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, its main coalition partner, caused the UAE to withdraw its remaining troops from the country. This also led to the dissolution of the Southern Transition Council, one of southern Yemen’s most potent fighting forces.“We know what the government has in terms of weapons and capabilities is what the Houthis had seven or nine years ago,” Muslimi said.
He added that the Houthis had financed their operations by importing fuel and gas from Iran, customs fees and taxes, telecommunications and drug-smuggling networks, and have used the funds to boost their arsenals.
The Yemeni government did send reinforcements to Mocha, which had been controlled by the previously UAE-backed NRF. But Rami, a government-aligned fighter, said he felt “betrayed” when he reached the battlefield.“While we were fighting on the front lines, there was no one supporting us from behind; we realised too late that our commanders had fled,”
Rami, also a pseudonym, said.Some of his colleagues surrendered to the Houthis and others sold their weapons in the market and fled, he said, while he chose to keep his Kalashnikov.
He paid smugglers to guide him through mountainous terrain to safety in Taiz province.The Aden-based Yemeni government has sought to regroup its forces and push back against the Houthis, with the current front lines along the southern coast holding for now, analysts say.
Saudi Arabia has also intensified its bombardment of Houthi positions across Yemen, with the rebels saying the kingdom has launched more than 300 air strikes over the past week.When the Houthis last controlled the area around Bab al-Mandeb, after sweeping south in early 2015 and reaching Aden, they were eventually driven back by the Saudi-led coalition to the Red Sea port of Hodeidah.But it took more than 18 months and intensified a civil war described by the UN as the world’s worst man-made humanitarian crisis.
A panel of UN experts in 2018 said that all parties to the conflict had committed violations that may have amounted to war crimes, with the Saudi-led coalition accused of blockading ports and killing thousands of civilians in air strikes.The warring parties agreed a ceasefire in 2022 as Saudi Arabia sought to extract itself from the hugely costly conflict and focus on its trillion-dollar domestic development plans.
But the Houthis, under mounting economic pressure, shattered the truce in July by declaring a blockade on the kingdom’s Red Sea ports, attacking Saudi tankers and targeting its oil infrastructure.Analysts say the rebels are largely acting in their own interests. They are seeking to force Saudi Arabia to allow the free movement of traffic at airports and ports under their control, demand Riyadh pay salaries in Houthi-controlled areas and give them access to Yemen’s oil revenues.
But their escalation also chimes with their ally Iran’s push to keep the pressure on global energy markets in its war with the US.The fear among Yemenis is that they are being dragged back to the darkest days of the war.
Families forced to flee their homes by the fighting have been pouring into Aden, Lahj and Taiz provinces on an hourly basis, with many ending up in overcrowded makeshift camps lacking basic services.
At least 125,000 people have fled their homes since the start of the month, according to the UN. Some 5mn of the 42mn population are already internally displaced because of conflict, and just under half the nation is “acutely food insecure”, it says.
Among the displaced is Khawla Hael, in her forties, who was first forced from her home six years ago and was living in a camp in Taiz province’s Jabal Habashi district with the most basic of services. As the fighting raged last week, she fled again with her husband and four children, packing what the family could carry — some clothes and a few kitchen utensils.“We didn’t have access to enough food or water, but at least we were in a safe area and had a tent where we could sleep and live safely and freely,”
Hael said. “But the fierce clashes last week forced us to flee, leaving everything behind.”Now she is trying to restart her life in another camp for the displaced further south, alongside hundreds of other families, relying on others sharing food with her family.“If things continue like this — with displaced families arriving every day and no organisations to help — we may starve to death,” she said.
David Miliband: ‘Peacemaking has gone into retreat’Fighting continues around the coast and also south and west of Taiz city, where the Houthis are facing resistance from government-aligned forces, mostly those loyal to Islah, an Islamist movement.Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst at Crisis Group, said it was still possible for the Saudi-aligned forces to drive the Houthis back. But analysts warn it would be a massive task.
The Saudi-led coalition has more Yemeni forces on the ground than in 2015, but the Houthis are also stronger and have more fortified positions.“Saudi Arabia doesn’t have good options on the table,” Nagi said.“They can go with a political track, but even this option is going to be very costly because they are going to negotiate from a weaker position,” he added. “The Houthis will increase their demands because they control more territory — for them it’s a big victory and they should be reflected in any political agreement with the Saudis.”