Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present

Two Years After Nasrallah’s Assassination, Hezbollah Is a Shadow of Itself

Two Years After Nasrallah’s Assassination, Hezbollah Is a Shadow of Itself​

By Samar El Kadi

Samar El Kadi is a veteran journalist with over 30 years of experience in regional and international media, including roles at United Press International, The Daily Star, and The Arab Weekly.

Sun 27 Sep 2026 · 8:54Last updated on Mon 28 Sep 2026 · 12:38Beirut, Lebanon

Two years after Israel assassinated Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, the Iran-controlled militia is now a shadow of the powerful organization it was before suffering a series of major military setbacks, analysts told This Is Beirut.

On September 27, 2024, Israeli jets struck a Hezbollah leadership bunker approximately 20 meters underground in Beirut’s southern suburbs. The massive airstrike involved dozens of munitions and killed Nasrallah, Hezbollah military official Ali Karaki, and senior Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officer Abbas Nilforoushan.

Nasrallah’s assassination, a devastating blow for Hezbollah, came after Israel’s September 17-18 “pager operation,” which detonated thousands of handheld communication devices used by Hezbollah operatives. Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike on September 20 killed the leadership of the group’s elite Radwan Forces.

Nasrallah’s assassination, a devastating blow for Hezbollah, came days after Israel’s “pager operation,” which detonated thousands of handheld communication devices used by Hezbollah operatives and an Israeli airstrike that killed the leadership of the group’s elite Radwan Forces.

“The Hezbollah that existed two years ago no longer exists,” political analyst Ahmad Ayyash told This is Beirut.

“What happened in September 2024 constituted a decisive moment for Hezbollah,” he said. “The group was harmed in a most dramatic and unprecedented way, with thousands of casualties, including dead and wounded, almost simultaneously.”

Ayyash said Hezbollah has been unable to fill the void left by Nasrallah’s death after 32 years at the helm of the organization. “Nasrallah was an idol for his community, more important than the group itself,” he said.

“Hezbollah’s popular base was as badly harmed as the group itself, but they have no [party] to turn to and to which they can complain,” Ayyash added. “The problem is that there is no strong state to which the people can resort."

Since suffering major military and leadership losses in the fall of 2024, Hezbollah has undergone a reorganization that has left it even more dependent on Tehran. “Each Hezbollah [military] unit is now directly commanded by the IRGC,” political analyst Daoud Rammal said.

“Hezbollah has no collective leadership anymore as in the past. Hezbollah has been thrust back to the initial phase of its founding,” he added to This is Beirut.

Political analyst Sam Menassa similarly pointed to growing discontent within Hezbollah’s core constituency, particularly in southern villages heavily affected by the wars. “Hezbollah still commands allegiance,” he said, adding that the party is “increasingly and openly criticized by many Shia.”

“Hezbollah is weakened to the point where its military wing has been declared outlawed, and calls for its disarmament are no longer a taboo,” Menassa told This is Beirut. “There is definitely an expanding anti-Hezbollah feeling and mood in the country.”

While Hezbollah still attempts to play a political and military role in Lebanon, it now operates in a dramatically changed geopolitical environment following Nasrallah’s assassination. Israeli troops have since advanced into southern Lebanon, crossing the Litani River to the outskirts of Nabatieh, while displacing hundreds of thousands of residents.

Regionally, the U.S. and Israel have conducted military campaigns against Iran, while Washington has sought to remove Lebanon as a bargaining chip for Tehran. The Lebanese state, which formally outlawed Hezbollah’s weapons, signed a U.S.-brokered Trilateral Framework with Israel aimed at dismantling the group’s military infrastructure as Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon.

Now, Hezbollah’s relationship with the Lebanese state and the Shia community is facing its greatest challenge yet, as the group continues to reel from the loss of its longtime leader.



Samar El Kadi is a veteran journalist with over 30 years of experience in regional and international media, including roles at United Press International, The Daily Star, and The Arab Weekly
 
Agree or disagree with guy you had to respect the fact he stayed in Lebanon he could’ve moved to far secure place in Iran changed his identity but chose to live fight and die for his country and his beliefs
It's probably more accurate to assert that Nasrallah "chose to live fight and die" to make Lebanon his country. Much of Hezbollah's efforts was, after all, centered on dominating/superseding the state, whether or not other Lebanese desired it - the 2008 conflict between Hezbollah and the government being the prime example.

Nasrallah, imo, actually cared about his people - the Shia who joined Hezbollah and their families. He matured in a Lebanon racked by civil war. Lebanon is still a fractious entity. So Nasrallah was, to many Lebanese, a local leader, supplying food and welfare to his Shia followers, and elevating their dignity not necessarily through "resistance" to Israel but, through strength, raising their status in the eyes of both themselves and other Lebanese - for the Shia had formerly been looked upon as poor inferiors by Lebanon's Sunnis, Christians, and the invading PLO.

Nasrallah, therefore, would not have considered fleeing to Iran or elsewhere; he would not have abandoned his people.
 

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