PAF Future Acquisition Plans

[Zarvan]

Sure, but no recent statements by PAF on the LIFT at all, yet several statements on J-35. So I question how you came to the conclusion LIFT is a bigger priority then J-35. Leonardo and AVIC will never reveal anything sensitive. So ot would be interesting to know how you came to this conclusion

In my personal opinion, the Hurjet from Turkey is now also a serious contender, but I see more potential for the upcoming trainer jet from China.

 

[Michael]

In my personal opinion, the Hurjet from Turkey is now also a serious contender, but I see more potential for the upcoming trainer jet from China.
View attachment 218615

Current information indicates that the aircraft is a carrier-based LIFT (Lead-In Fighter Trainer) variant for the Navy, which is unsuitable for Pakistan.

According to relevant Chinese academic papers and unconfirmed reports, a land-based light attack variant for the Air Force may be developed—primarily targeting the export market, though the PLAAF might procure a small number. This role, however, conflicts with the tactical positioning of Pakistan's JF-17; consequently, the likelihood of Pakistan actually purchasing it is very low.

There is currently no indication that an Air Force LIFT variant will be offered, as the existing L-15/JL-10 (single vertical stabilizer version) already meets operational requirements.

 

[Quwa]

Sure, but no recent statements by PAF on the LIFT at all, yet several statements on J-35. So I question how you came to the conclusion LIFT is a bigger priority then J-35.

Circling back to ACM Mujahid Anwar Khan's statements. Alan Warnes interviewed him (via Jane's) in May 2019; here's the excerpt:

"Before its FGFA capability comes online, ACM Khan said the PAF must acquire a new trainer and that the Leonardo M-346, Hongdu L-15, and KAI T-50 have all been evaluated," adding, "“It [LIFT] doesn’t have to be supersonic, but will need to have an air interdiction radar and a datalink training system.”

Basically, before the FGFA, the PAF will induct a new LIFT.

That was the PAF's official stance on the record in 2019. Not once has the current CAS contradicted, walked back, or changed this position. Yes, it could be that the NGFA is coming sooner now, but I guarantee you, the LIFT will still come before then (meaning timelines are accelerated).

Then, returning to more recent official statements, while, yes, they didn't emphasize the LIFT (but also didn't contradict the earlier point either), AVM Ghazi said (this year) that while an "initial collaborative mechanism" was laid for the J-35AE, the priority for now was to get additional JF-17s and J-10CEs.

So, piecing the PAF's official statements together, the roadmap is: more JF-17Cs and J-10CEs, then LIFTs, and then J-35AEs. Could it all happen sooner than planned, sure, but whether it's earlier or later, that's the track we can see from the statements as they are today.

Leonardo and AVIC will never reveal anything sensitive. So ot would be interesting to know how you came to this conclusion

Sure, but why are you assuming the LIFT was a sensitive issue?

 

[Yasser76]

Circling back to ACM Mujahid Anwar Khan's statements. Alan Warnes interviewed him (via Jane's) in May 2019; here's the excerpt:

"Before its FGFA capability comes online, ACM Khan said the PAF must acquire a new trainer and that the Leonardo M-346, Hongdu L-15, and KAI T-50 have all been evaluated," adding, "“It [LIFT] doesn’t have to be supersonic, but will need to have an air interdiction radar and a datalink training system.”

Basically, before the FGFA, the PAF will induct a new LIFT.

That was the PAF's official stance on the record in 2019. Not once has the current CAS contradicted, walked back, or changed this position. Yes, it could be that the NGFA is coming sooner now, but I guarantee you, the LIFT will still come before then (meaning timelines are accelerated).

Then, returning to more recent official statements, while, yes, they didn't emphasize the LIFT (but also didn't contradict the earlier point either), AVM Ghazi said (this year) that while an "initial collaborative mechanism" was laid for the J-35AE, the priority for now was to get additional JF-17s and J-10CEs.

So, piecing the PAF's official statements together, the roadmap is: more JF-17Cs and J-10CEs, then LIFTs, and then J-35AEs. Could it all happen sooner than planned, sure, but whether it's earlier or later, that's the track we can see from the statements as they are today.



Sure, but why are you assuming the LIFT was a sensitive issue?

Sorry, no one is making it a "sensitive issue", unsure where you assumed that, I was simply asking a question.

Your working basis is that as no one has contradicted an almost 7 year old statement it still must hold?

Since then we have had PM tweets (deleted after a while), PAF CAS statements and very recently the IAF CAS all state J-35 is very much on the cards. For 7 years not a real word on LIFT, but here you are claiming LIFT is a bigger priority then J-35.

My simple question, which I will repeat, is simply what is your basis for this?

 

[Yasser76]

In my personal opinion, the Hurjet from Turkey is now also a serious contender, but I see more potential for the upcoming trainer jet from China.
View attachment 218615

For sure, just weir how suddenly people can claim PAF has prioritised this over J-35 without any evidence

 

[worldwar]

Pakistan should join Türkiye’s KAAN project to help its Muslim brothers develop their defense industry.

 

[user]

I couldn't go through the 122 pages.... PAF needs strategic bombers to complete the triad.

 

[Trailer23]

A lil' over a couple of years back, there was an L-15 that had made two stops in Pakistan.

Once while heading to the UAE for the DxB Air Show '23, and on the way back. Both times it stopped at Masroor Air Base.

On the way back, it had an extended stay along with all the support staff for evaluation.

From the information I have been able to gather is that the L-15 is the front contender and quite possibly the only one in the running. And the variant that has been discussed is the L-15B variant.

 

[Hussain]

For sure, just weir how suddenly people can claim PAF has prioritised this over J-35 without any evidence

If Bilal is saying it, then he is not firing arrows in the air, his intel is "usually" solid.

 

[Toxic]

Sure, but no recent statements by PAF on the LIFT at all, yet several statements on J-35. So I question how you came to the conclusion LIFT is a bigger priority then J-35. Leonardo and AVIC will never reveal anything sensitive. So ot would be interesting to know how you came to this conclusion

PAF has also said that J-35 is not something they are going to induct yet and are still "looking into" Other fifth gen options, the fact that PAF has literally been evaluating LIFTs for years now but due to air defense, Ew and J-10C inductions those plans have not materialized yet.

 

[Quwa]

Sorry, no one is making it a "sensitive issue", unsure where you assumed that, I was simply asking a question.

Your working basis is that as no one has contradicted an almost 7 year old statement it still must hold?

Since then we have had PM tweets (deleted after a while), PAF CAS statements and very recently the IAF CAS all state J-35 is very much on the cards. For 7 years not a real word on LIFT, but here you are claiming LIFT is a bigger priority then J-35.

My simple question, which I will repeat, is simply what is your basis for this?

Where did AHQ contradict what I'm saying?

For sure, just weir how suddenly people can claim PAF has prioritised this over J-35 without any evidence

Don't gaslight. I literally provided the evidence. The PAF said that LIFT would come before the NGFA, and to date, AHQ has not switched gears to say this isn't the order of priority. Unless there is a statement to the contrary, the plans set by one AHQ will, generally, remain with the next AHQ and so on.

Sorry, no one is making it a "sensitive issue", unsure where you assumed that, I was simply asking a question.

I was responding to this statement of yours, where you said (in reply to me saying that AVIC and Leonardo spoke re: the LIFT back in IDEAS 2018, 2022, and 2024) that AVIC and Leonardo wouldn't reveal anything sensitive.

I said that LIFT was not a sensitive issue and that they (i.e., AVIC and Leonardo) spoke re: it at IDEAS 2018, 2022, and 2024.

 

[Oscar]

For sure, just weir how suddenly people can claim PAF has prioritised this over J-35 without any evidence

To assume it has "priority" is wrong.

There are programs that were initiated years ago INCLUDING a FGFA well before the current chief went ahead and announced it.

These are part of modernization of training going from using the 50s F-7 as LIFT to providing a proper LIFT with radar and networking capabilites.
This ISNT UNIQUE to the PAF - all top airforces in the world have recognized the need for this since it also REDUCES the hours needed in OCU units for frontline aircraft.

So the LIFT is INDEPENDANT of FGFA as a program since it feeds not just J-35(or other platforms) but J-10, F-16, JF-17 and then FGFA.

You want to maintain your pilot's pipeline as one of the best then you need to ensure that the equipment that trains them - and not just what they use is current.


Each of these programs - FGFA -AD - LIFT get from a budget chunk and that budget chunk isnt a single year commitment so it is then planned out in terms of what the immediate requirements are.

Your enemy has literally NOTHING available to it to compete in the LO arena for the next conceivable 6-10 years - they know it too. They are investing in their MDO, an even more layered AD including systems optimized to detect LO systems - which you may not be able to penetrate without losses or sinking a lot of vectors into - and from which they intend to hide their launch platforms behind for.

So you're prioritizing - focusing on saturation systems, your own AD and with the funds remaining focusing onthe training pipeline modernization

If it turns out that in their daily briefing of "Indian Air Force Intelligence Report" that the senior staff get weekly or daily depending upon their roles - that the IAF has either found a path to their own 5th Gen or have introduced a capability that only a LO platform can handle - you will find just like J-10s - J-35s parked in Pakistan in a very short time.

 

[Trailer23]

...the plans set by one AHQ will, generally, remain with the next AHQ and so on.

There is also the other thing that this "AHQ" has been around (already) for quite a while, & will remain for the unforeseeable future.

So its not exactly starting off where the last AHQ left off.

Here its more like, yeah that was the plan yesterday & we'll stick to it till...well...as long as it takes.

 

[Samurai]

I couldn't go through the 122 pages.... PAF needs strategic bombers to complete the triad.

More than strategic bombers, I think what PAF really needs is an ALBM. PAF's strategic bombers will be constrained within its own airspace due to dense enemy AD environment and other aerial threats and therefore it will just be another missile carrying platform like other air crafts in the fleet. So, it will be pointless to develop or procure such costly platform.

 

[Michael]

For sure, just weir how suddenly people can claim PAF has prioritised this over J-35 without any evidence

IMO.

I do not believe that acquiring LIFT aircraft is a "priority" for the PAF, let alone a higher priority than fifth-generation fighter jets. ------ We need to distinguish between LIFT capability and the possession of LIFT aircraft; they are two completely different things.

The situation is as follows:
Whether it is the PAF or the Uzbekistan Air Force—which recently acquired the J-10CE fighter—pilots operating these aircraft complete their relevant familiarization and adaptation flights in China. This is part of the support services included in the procurement program. Furthermore, reports regarding the Bangladesh Air Force's prospective purchase of J-10CE fighters explicitly outline the cost plan for pilot training to be conducted in China.

4.5-generation or 5th-generation fighter jets have completely moved beyond traditional air combat paradigms. They rely more heavily on the support of an integrated air combat ecosystem than on one-on-one dogfighting between individual aircraft.

This implies that for many economically disadvantaged nations, establishing a simulation-based training environment for 4.5-generation or 5th-generation fighter pilots is virtually impossible. These countries face significant deficiencies in their actual aerial combat support infrastructure, making the allocation of funds for such simulation systems even less feasible. Furthermore, economic constraints limit the scale of their 4.5-generation or 5th-generation fighter fleets, resulting in a low demand for pilots; beyond the initial cohort, the number of new pilots added annually is in the single digits. Consequently, setting up such a training system for such a small number of pilots is clearly not a rational choice.

CATIC provides comprehensive pilot training services to customers for both the J-10CE and FC-31/J-35 fighter jets; in fact, virtually all fighter jet exporters offer such training. Even in the case of Pakistan, when PAC sells JF-17 series fighters to foreign customers, it includes pilot training services. Furthermore, PAC offers the JF-17B variant, enabling customers to conduct their own pilot training—much like the J-10S option available for China's J-10CE.

LIFT aircraft are unlikely to be a top priority for the PAF. While procurement remains a possibility, it is not a primary concern. Modern LIFT aircraft possess genuine combat capabilities rather than serving merely as trainers; should the PAF acquire them, the deciding factor would be their combat utility, not their training functions.

Moreover, LIFT aircraft are not a central consideration in the PAF's future acquisition of fifth-generation fighters. The PAF lacks the resources to sustain a standalone, comprehensive training system specifically for fifth-generation fighter pilots.