IMF: Japan to fall to 6th in 2027 global GDP rankings

[chinasun]

IMF: Japan to fall to 6th in 2027 global GDP rankings

The International Monetary Fund says Japan's economy is likely to fall to sixth place in global rankings next year, behind India and the United Kingdom.

In its latest economic outlook, released this week, the IMF estimates Japan's nominal gross domestic product will amount to 4.467 trillion dollars in 2027.

The IMF projection ranks Japan fourth for 2026 after the United States, China and Germany. But India's nominal GDP is estimated to reach 4.521 trillion dollars next year, while the UK's is expected to be 4.488 trillion dollars. Both India and the UK are expected to post higher growth than Japan.

Meanwhile, the yen's continued weakness will reduce the value of Japan's GDP in US dollar terms.

Japan faces the challenge of boosting growth through higher investment and improved productivity as the country's population decline is expected to continue.

 

[Panda_Hi]

Wow, what great news.....

 

[chinasun]

In 2026, ASEAN's total economic output is projected to surpass that of Japan. Measured by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Asian economies are expected to account for 49.7% of global GDP. This marks the comprehensive establishment of Asia's status as the center of the world economy.

 

[retaxis]

little japs have been in decline for last 30 yrs. They better open the flood gates to Indians to die slow death or die fast death under current leadership lol

 

[Beijingwalker]

Japan's economy is in a death spiral

 

[Eşbah]

 

[Owaiz]

IMF: Japan to fall to 6th in 2027 global GDP rankings

The International Monetary Fund says Japan's economy is likely to fall to sixth place in global rankings next year, behind India and the United Kingdom.

In its latest economic outlook, released this week, the IMF estimates Japan's nominal gross domestic product will amount to 4.467 trillion dollars in 2027.

The IMF projection ranks Japan fourth for 2026 after the United States, China and Germany. But India's nominal GDP is estimated to reach 4.521 trillion dollars next year, while the UK's is expected to be 4.488 trillion dollars. Both India and the UK are expected to post higher growth than Japan.

Meanwhile, the yen's continued weakness will reduce the value of Japan's GDP in US dollar terms.

Japan faces the challenge of boosting growth through higher investment and improved productivity as the country's population decline is expected to continue.

The projected GDP difference between India and Jaoan is only about 1% and between the UK and Japan is a rounding error. Depending on how accurate the GDP forecasts turn out and movements in the FX rate, any of these three economies could be the 4th largest in 2027.

It is not a very meaningful ranking anyway. The quality of life in Japan will remain superior to that in India for the forseeable future.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

India GDP will not cross $4t in FY 2026-27. So this isn't sure bet.

 

[Owaiz]

India GDP will not cross $4t in FY 2026-27. So this isn't sure bet.

IMF estimate is for Calendar Year 2027, which is also the financial year most countries use. Based on widely reported GDP growth and inflation estimates and the current FX rate, the IMF estimate of around 4.5 billion seems right.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

IMF estimate is for Calendar Year 2027, which is also the financial year most countries use. Based on widely reported GDP growth and inflation estimates and the current FX rate, the IMF estimate of around 4.5 billion seems right.

No dear it doesn't look right at all. India FY of 2026-27 end in March 27 in which GDP will remain below $4t.

$4.5t in FY 2027-28 depend on USD to INR being around 95 which is again unlikely. We have been thought this already when Indians screamed about being $4t economy starting in 2024. Calculating Indian GDP in USD 2 years in advance doesn't make any sense when INR is tanking.

 

[Owaiz]

No dear it doesn't look right at all. India FY of 2026-27 end in March 27 in which GDP will remain below $4t.

$4.5t in FY 2027-28 depend on USD to INR being around 95 which is again unlikely. We have been thought this already when Indians screamed about being $4t economy starting in 2024. Calculating Indian GDP in USD 2 years in advance doesn't make any sense when INR is tanking.

There are several issues here.

Firstly, the distinction between FY and CY is a legacy of British colonialism. Most countries report ther full year economic metrics for Jan -Dec and what the IMF has projected is GDP for Jan-Dec 2027. Since almost all countries release quarterly GDP data, it is easy to reconcile with the national data of even those countries that use a different FY.

Secondly, just because a currency has depreciated in the past does not mean it will depreciate at the same rate or, even, at all , in the future. PKR depreciated substantially between late 2021 and 2023 , and is now almost 10% stronger than its low from September 2023.
Thirdly, the FX rate in a forecast is not an entirely exogenous variable. It is intertwined with both the growth and inflation forecast. A weaker currency will help export growth and increase inflation, which will increase the value of local currency nominal GDP and offset a lower FX conversion value to USD. After Indian Central Bank raised interest rates and started intervening in the FX market, their currency has strengthened in the last few days. The IMF would have incorporated the more restrictive policy in downgrading its forecast for real GDP growth from the latest 7.8% figure.

Finally, it is just a forecast and can always end up being way off, but the approach used by the IMF is more analytically robust than just pulling numbers out of thin air.

 

[vasanthm]

I’m in Osaka on a family holiday right now. Compared with my last visit a decade ago, things definitely feel more affordable, relatively speaking. Back then, everything seemed ridiculously expensive. I’m also noticing a lot of older people working pretty much everywhere.

Still an awesome country, though. Great culture, lovely people and a high standard of living.

 

[Indos]

Japanese Yen Huge depreciation from USD, experienced by Indonesian Rupiah as well due to US high interest rate and high US treasury bond.

But I predict USD value will keep decreasing due to worry of how vulnerable US gov currently with their high debt. USD is now supported by high The Fed interest rate and higher yield of US treasury bond

 

[Beijingwalker]

 

[Lulldapull]

little japs have been in decline for last 30 yrs. They better open the flood gates to Indians to die slow death or die fast death under current leadership lol

Indians will not be allowed in cuz he stands out as de ultimate gaijin here.

Sorry but Japan and Korea will not accept Indian people.

Temporary student/ care giver/ 7 eleven/ Lawson/ Family Mart worker/ food processing worker/ fruit veggie picker on work visa is ok but they will not be issued PR visas.

@Beijingwalker lives here and he knows exactly what I'm talking about.