Connect the dots, the enrichment hall took blast debris and shockwave vibrations even if we assume all centrifuges were newer generations that could safely shut off when dealt with immediate loss of power.
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What are these photos supposed to prove exactly? These photos have already been posted here over 10 times. They prove nothing about the destruction of Fordow, as you claimed. Nobody disputes that Fordow has been targeted, but where is the proof for your claim that Fordow has been destroyed?
All it proves is that some GBU-57s have been dropped on it successfully, but what has happened down there is absolutely unclear. We don't know if those bombs have even worked and detonated as planned. So, again, what's the source of your information to claim that Fordow has been destroyed? Even the IAEA doesn't know that yet.
IR-1 and earlier versions of IR-2 were prone to immediate loss of power because they were supercritical and used aluminum rotors. That doesn't apply to newer versions of Iranian centrifuges which use carbon fiber and are subcritical without going through a destructive resonance zone.
Alright let me stop you right there. This isn’t Narnia, it’s Earth. You aren’t using fossil fuel generators inside a clean room nuclear site. Underground high voltage power lines (which have many set of problems) don’t go to a magical land they go to above surface sub station, which was bombed. You can’t hide your power source, you can defend it. Which Iran didn’t.
Do you think fossil fuel generators will be in the same location as the clean rooms? You can integrate your high voltage power lines with the civilian grid. If they haven't destroyed the civilian grid, then there's no power issue. What part of this is not Earth like? lol
Iran may or may not have enough raw uranium for an industrial refueling program, it has enough for a handful of nuclear weapons.
Iran mined about 20 tones of uranium per year in recent years. That hardly gives you 100 kilograms of HEU. Assuming a compression ratio of 2, you need 16 kilograms of uranium for a nuclear warhead. 100 kilograms of HEU is hardly sufficient for even 6 nuclear devices and 6 nuclear devices is not going to cut it for Iran against the US and Israel. And besides that, every kilogram of the uranium you mine will be tracked. So, nope.
There is also zero evidence you have seen the solid fuel production engines inside Shahrud’s missile tunnel city. Does that mean this production line doesn’t exist? What kind of claim is this?
You claimed Iran could setup 200 cascades of IR-6 centrifuges. And you were asked to prove it. Shahrud's missile tunnel city has nothing to do with your claim about 200 cascades of IR-6.
Also you don’t need 200 IR-6 cascades (164 x 200 x ~4SWU = 131,200 SWUs) to get to a 5-10 nuclear arsenal. Are you trying to build nuclear bombs or wipe out human civilization with that SWU capacity?!
131,200 SWU is not that much, particularly because Iran reports SWU based on UF6, not U. It's not such a high number, as you think. Industrial countries like Russia and the US have 5-10 million SWU/year. And again, it was your claim, not mine. So, what is it based on?
And yes, if you want to race towards a nuclear bomb in less than 2 months, and produce 10 nuclear weapons, you'll need about 150-160 kilograms of HEU. Here's the calculation for 160 kilograms of 90% U-235:
Natural uranium required: 28 tonnes.
SWU, for 2 months: 330,000 SWU UF6/year.
I don’t know where you got the 32,800 IR-6 claim from. You are making up claims now.
Several sources including those at Arms Control Wonk believe Iran was able to remove some centrifuges and uranium out of Fordow before the bombing. Furthermore, they also believe Iran can develop centrifuges if needed.
I trust their judgement as nuclear proliferation is their area of expertise.
It's pretty simple. You said 200 cascades of IR-6. Each cascade of IR-6 is 164 centrifuges in its most common setup, per IAEA reports and multiple articles on Iran's nuclear program by people like David Albright. 164 * 200 = 32,800. It's just basic math.
I'm still waiting for you to prove that Iran has 200 cascades of IR-6 centrifuges. You haven't showed me any evidence for this claim yet.
ICAC was for industrial centrifuge production of an eventual 300,000 SWU enrichment capacity. And was actually a pilot facility.
You seem to think centrifuges are some crazy technology. Nuclear weapons were done in the 1940’s with no semiconductors let alone computers.
This is a centrifuge from the 50’s
Bro, if you are not going to support what you've claimed regarding Iran's IR-6 storage, stop wasting my time with irrelevant points and just take it back.
Just because something is old tech, doesn't mean countries have the necessary infrastructure and industrial ecosystem to produce it at any industrial rate they want. It took the US about 3 years to build the first atomic bomb from scratch and Iran hasn't been able to do that after 30 years. Russia hasn't been able to produce 300nm chips commercially, which the US did in 1980s. What does it have to do with anything really?
Pakistan built their nuclear arsenal with IR-1 (1st generation) centrifuges. So if Iran needed to they have the capability to smack together 164 cascades of older centrifuges using specialized workshops across the country. Whether they can build IR-4 or IR-6 or IR-9 I am not sure. All that would do is help speed up the enrichment time and make the concealment program much easier to hide as you only need 1 cascade maybe 2 at a few scattered sites to sprint to a handful of bombs (using newer centrifuges).
IR-9 has never been operational in large scale and it was still undergoing testing before the war. 2 cascades of IR-6 give you roughly 1600-1800 SWU UF6/year. Even with IR-8, that number would go up to 6,000 SWU UF6/year or so. How is that enough?
I suggest you watch this video by the now assassinated Iranian nuclear scientist who was killed during the war.
Fereydoon Abbasi is talking nonsense here. How do you want to convert 90% UF6 gas to uranium metal when your only conversion facility has been bombed? Iran shouldn't have built uranium metal conversion facility at Natanz above the ground to begin with.
Honestly, It seems to me Iran was never really serious about going nuclear.
For the sake of argument, let's say OK, you can build a new one, but do you think it will go unnoticed? They've killed over 40 of our top officials in the last 18 months and you think with all the intel they have on us, they won't notice that Iran is building a new facility for uranium metal conversion?