Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Persian Gulf]

Was Fordow a psychological win?

Was Esfahan mountain complex a psychological win?

Was Natanz a psychological win?

The MOAB shockwave could potentially penetrate thru and overcome the blast traps, the centrifuges and the Machines that make them are incredibly sensitive to vibrations from the outside.

You are dismissive now, but I guarantee you will be yelling blood Mary when it occurs. You were also the one that thought Ghadirs would pose a threat to US navy and chastised me when I told you the entire Iranian Navy had zero chance of hurting US navy with their tin can archaic vessels.

So I am telling you again, they want to Pickaxe under the same de facto inoperation that Iran’s other sites are. Not that I expect this retarded leadership to sprint for a nuke at Pickaxe, but they want all of Iran’s major industrial nuclear sites to be able to be attacked anytime in the future if Iran goes to under bury them. So they are basically expansive tombs at this point.

Did I mention how much incompetence this leadership has?

I an average person nailed down the EXACT DAY AND WEEKEND Trump would launch his strike (I admit the morning raid suprised me) And yet these so called leaders and military brass of a 90 million person country all gathered in a single above ground compound to meet to discuss god knows what. What was there to discuss on something they had supposedly game planned for 40 years?

They learned NOTHING from Hajizadeh and Bagheri going into the same bunker they went to for TP 1/2/3.

I mean this is Looney Tunes level of incompetence.

They didn’t achieve anything in Esfahan

Ghadirs are designed for the Persian Gulf. US Navy ships do not enter the Persian Gulf. So the Ghadirs either did their job or were not necessary to do the job

 

[RzA]

Ghadirs are designed for the Persian Gulf. US Navy ships do not enter the Persian Gulf. So the Ghadirs either did their job or were not necessary to do the job

Are you kidding? There were plenty of times the USN was sailing through the Persian Gulf in the course of this war. Even when our sub sonic munitions had no affect the regime was too chickenshit to use the Ghadirs.

 

[ShapurII]

And the budget funds subsidies and monthly credit to everyone to help them fund core necessitates, that is very important

That's another issue that I failed to highlight.

Food prices have grown by 300%-400% since 10 months ago. How much do you think subsidies and monthly credit have increased since then? Not even 50%.

Do you seriously think paying $3-$4 per month to each individual, about 70% of your population, is going to change anything? The monthly credit you talk about is now less than $4. It hardly covers the cost of just one 12-inch pizza in Tehran.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Trump is desperately trying to control the energy situation by issuing sanctions waivers for Russia

I'm inclined to agree. And, why I stated in the Russia-Ukraine thread, if I was Zelenskyy, Russian refineries would be on the target list daily.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

This.

If 12 GBU-57s that had been specifically tailored for the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities under mountains couldn't completely destroy Fordow's enrichment plant after entering its ventilation shaft, there's nothing the so-called "Mother of All Bombs" can do to the Pick Axe mountain. It's all propaganda.

Nothing short of a nuclear strike on the Pick Axe mountain can finish the job.

However, there's no need to attack the Pick Axe mountain as nothing clandestine is happening there. Iran's HEU has been buried in Natanz and Fordow.
Also, Iran doesn't have enough uranium reserves and yellow cake, and enough new centrifuges, to restart enriching uranium in the Pick Axe mountain from scratch either.
Therefore, as long as satellite images show that Iran's uranium has not been moved from their previous locations, the chance of proliferation is almost zero, unless China, Russia or North Korea somehow equip Iran with fissile material which is too optimistic.

From what has been described throughout this thread, I'm not certain a direct strike on Pickaxe with a nuclear weapon would destroy it. Between the purported depth of the complex and the geology of basalt, it's not going to happen.

As someone who has blown up a mountain or two of basalt, I have an idea what it is going to take.

 

[ShapurII]

From what has been described throughout this thread, I'm not certain a direct strike on Pickaxe with a nuclear weapon would destroy it. Between the purported depth of the complex and the geology of basalt, it's not going to happen.

As someone who has blown up a mountain or two of basalt, I have an idea what it is going to take.

And I agree with you, but if nuclear weapons aren't going to do the job, I'm damn sure that MOABs won't cut it either.

There are too many factors to consider though. Can the bombs penetrate deep into the ground? If yes, then it's different. The US dropped GBU-57s through the ventilation shaft of the Fordow facility. If a nuke is dropped like that, it's going to work. I don't see why not.

 

[Immortals]

What would the U.S do if they got wind that Pakistan was going to nuke the entity?

Pakistan cannot nuke Israel, it does not have the missile weapon and nuclear delivery system capable of striking that far away with a nuclear payload.

Anyway the corrupt Generals of Pakistan are very similar in rationale to the Corrupt Generals of Egypt. They care about self preservation first and retaining power. There is no desire by any general in Egypt or Pakistan to confront Israel in any situation other than a threat to the Holy Sites.

 

[Immortals]

I am yet to see a satellite image that shows visible structural damage to Fordow, or any IAEA report on the matter. How do you know Fordow is destroyed? Where do you get this information from?

Connect the dots, the enrichment hall took blast debris and shockwave vibrations even if we assume all centrifuges were newer generations that could safely shut off when dealt with immediate loss of power.

It can have underground power lines, generators, fuel storage, etc. It all depends on what your main purpose of building something like the Pick Axe mountain is. If it is to survive an attack for a short period of time, it is doable.

Alright let me stop you right there. This isn’t Narnia, it’s Earth. You aren’t using fossil fuel generators inside a clean room nuclear site. Underground high voltage power lines (which have many set of problems) don’t go to a magical land they go to above surface sub station, which was bombed. You can’t hide your power source, you can defend it. Which Iran didn’t.

Iran's uranium mines do not output enough uranium to build anything of any sort of significance and their output can be accurately tracked on satellite imagery. Iran has always had a shortage of uranium, which is why Ahmadinejad went to Zimbabwe to purchase uranium and we imported yellow cake from Russia after the JCPOA. This isn't a new issue.

Iran may or may not have enough raw uranium for an industrial refueling program, it has enough for a handful of nuclear weapons.

Not really. That's not true. There is zero evidence that Iran has the ability to setup 200 cascades of IR-6 centrifuges.

There is also zero evidence you have seen the solid fuel production engines inside Shahrud’s missile tunnel city. Does that mean this production line doesn’t exist? What kind of claim is this?

Also you don’t need 200 IR-6 cascades (164 x 200 x ~4SWU = 131,200 SWUs) to get to a 5-10 nuclear arsenal. Are you trying to build nuclear bombs or wipe out human civilization with that SWU capacity?!

Each cascade in Iran is typically about 164 centrifuges. You're telling me Iran still has 32,800 IR-6 centrifuges?

I don’t know where you got the 32,800 IR-6 claim from. You are making up claims now.
Several sources including those at Arms Control Wonk believe Iran was able to remove some centrifuges and uranium out of Fordow before the bombing. Furthermore, they also believe Iran can develop centrifuges if needed.

I trust their judgement as nuclear proliferation is their area of expertise.

Iran probably has never had that many IR-6 centrifuges in storage to begin with, if you claim otherwise, prove it.

ICAC has been destroyed. Iran can no longer produce advanced centrifuges anymore. Fordow might have survived, but one thing is beyond reasonable doubt and that's the obliteration of ICAC at Natanz.

ICAC was for industrial centrifuge production of an eventual 300,000 SWU enrichment capacity. And was actually a pilot facility.

You seem to think centrifuges are some crazy technology. Nuclear weapons were done in the 1940’s with no semiconductors let alone computers.

This is a centrifuge from the 50’s

Pakistan built their nuclear arsenal with IR-1 (1st generation) centrifuges. So if Iran needed to they have the capability to smack together 164 cascades of older centrifuges using specialized workshops across the country. Whether they can build IR-4 or IR-6 or IR-9 I am not sure. All that would do is help speed up the enrichment time and make the concealment program much easier to hide as you only need 1 cascade maybe 2 at a few scattered sites to sprint to a handful of bombs (using newer centrifuges).

I suggest you watch this video by the now assassinated Iranian nuclear scientist who was killed during the war.

 

[Immortals]

 

[Persian Gulf]

Are you kidding? There were plenty of times the USN was sailing through the Persian Gulf in the course of this war. Even when our sub sonic munitions had no affect the regime was too chickenshit to use the Ghadirs.

According to the IRI, no USN ship has crossed into the Persian Gulf for several months

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[Persian Gulf]

2 ships hit near KSA in central Persian Gulf

One hit by RPG from a small boat

 

[Flotilla]

You don't follow American politics as well as you think you do.

Perhaps you remember when Biden went on his rant about overthrowing the US government? That you would need F-15s and nukes?

That is not fair.

That It is your conclusion, he was not suggesting to use a nuclear device over a rival State.

Also the record of Trump is disturbing, he came to the Office killing Soleimani, stripping the JCPOA, to the point that today the US Navy even can't moor in the 5 Fleet home base. The Iranian nuclear program is out of control and damage among allies (including Ukraine and EU) seems sentenced to the future.

Even if JCPOA was not perfect and EU was abusing from Pentagon two mistakes doesn't make you a right.

He went out of Afghanistan just to enter in a much worse war. And a further stupidity will make Irán a nuclear power.

His crazy foreign policy makes this kind of domestic speeches much more credible than any Biden's treat. Specially if those states give him a complete defeat in Midterms.

 

[Persian Gulf]

If IRI truly believes another US/Israeli attack is inevitable, a pre emptive strike on this base (merely 280km from Iran) would be a good idea…

Instead of waiting and letting the U.S. evacuate first…

 

[Navid09]

No, not even close. Iran's revenue from the Strait of Hormuz will not surpass $15 billion, even if all countries, and I emphasize all countries, accept to pay Iran the fee that the IRGC is wishing for and do not think about replacing the Strait of Hormuz in a couple of years, and the Strait of Hormuz does not remain leaky. So, that's Iran's income in the ideal situation.

Iran's oil exports have dropped to fewer than 300K barrels per day, and probably even fewer than 150K barrels per day. That would add another $10 billion of income. So, in the most optimistic scenario where China buys our oil without discount and all the countries do what the IRGC wants them to do, our income from this strategy would add up to $25 billion.

That's still about 30%-40% less than what it was before the US naval blockade on Iran. Not to mention that the chance of the first scenario ever happening is pretty unlikely as well because 1. the Strait of Hormuz is leaky, 2. not all countries will pay the IRGC their transit fee, 3. Arabs will soon replace and bypass the Strait of Hormuz in a couple of years.

So, why choose a stupid strategy that reduces your income by about 35% and is unsustainable in the long run? Iran should secure nukes, and guarantee its right to close the Strait of Hormuz in war time. Imposing a transit fee during peace time is unsustainable.

U need to calculate all ships not just oil, so include LNG, cargo etc

$15bn is only for oil

U also need to calculate the fact that the pre war oil money Iran receive is not profit but revenue. There is a cost for getting oil out, moving it, paying wages, maintaining all the equipment etc.

Toll is almost all pure profit.

When I calculated it worked out similar.

And with anything the ideal situation is some pay and some don't so U have some leverage over global markets whilst also generating an income.

Nukes are nice, having them gives u deterrence and helps control the escalation ladder but I don't think it would have stopped USA and Israel attacking Iran.

When Israel attacked Iran in 12 day war, what would Iran have said, "ok now we gonna nuke U guys?" Or when they joint attacked then this year? No they wouldn't, because Iran knows it too would get nukes.

Generally no country will use nukes on the onset of war, only if they get super desperate. But like I said it defiently helps having them, puts U in position of power

Iran is currently partially closing it, potentially making money and normalising it.

If in future Arabs find ways around it, Iran can bomb them pipes/pumping stations.