Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
AZ_HighCountry
INT'L MOD
Nope.
This is just the start.
The major oil executives warned of this over 6 months ago.
No one was listening.
BananaRepublic
Trusted Member
AZ_HighCountry
INT'L MOD
Not even then.Only the “US Perspectives” thread folks
One poster in particular is still on the "things are great. More oil has passed through the Strait...." bandwagon.
You know things are bad when the state of California IMPORTS more gasoline and diesel fuel than it produces. That is due to a lot of the regulations they put in place as well as banning development of fossil fuel energy sources.
In some respects, much like the Paks, who can out Brit the Brits when it comes to military parades, we're trying to outdo them when it comes to spiting ourselves.
925boy
Elite Member
What does this have to do with my point?
Can Pakistanis in here actually tell us what Pakistani military, which is ready and able to fight Hindia at anytime, has done a bit the Balochi militancy and insurgency on its border with Iran recently?, they are flooding into Iran, and all we are seeing is caring words from Pakistanis and their govt officials towards Iran, when action ob the border is the need of the hour!, smh
kobra
Registered Member
A lengthy but worthy reading by CosmoTrade...
Yes, Iran might retaliate by destroying energy facilities in the Gulf, oil prices might spike to catastrophic levels, but according to this bet, that would only last for a limited time. And after the fall of the Iranian regime and the end of the war, the destroyed facilities can be rebuilt, production restored, and prices lowered.As for continuing the current war without resolution, that could mean energy prices remain high and the economic drain persists for much longer.
In other words, they might be betting that enduring a massive economic catastrophe for weeks or months is better than enduring a war of attrition that could last years.And here lies the danger of these calculations.Because the success of this bet hinges on one assumption: that destroying Iran's energy facilities will indeed lead to the rapid collapse of the Iranian regime.
But what if that doesn't happen?What if Iran retaliates by destroying Gulf energy facilities, yet the Iranian regime holds firm, the war drags on, and the temporary economic crisis they bet on turns into a long-term economic disaster?Then Trump and Netanyahu would have committed a strategic blunder whose consequences could outweigh everything the war has seen so far.And this brings us back to history.Hitler bet on crushing the Soviet Union in months, only to end up with Germany's destruction and the occupation of Berlin. Napoleon bet on subduing Russia, and his campaign became the beginning of his empire's collapse. Stalin approved the invasion of South Korea in 1950, believing a quick victory was possible, only for the war to turn into a devastating international confrontation. And in Vietnam, one American president after another escalated the war and sent more troops and money, hoping to achieve the victory their predecessors had failed to secure, until the adventure ended in a historic American defeat.
The common thread among these examples isn't the similarity of the military and political circumstances, but the decision-making mindset: the belief that doubling down on the risk after failure might achieve the victory that the first risk couldn't.And that's why I believe that the upcoming American-Israeli war on Iran, if it happens, will have as one of its main goals the destruction of Iran's oil and gas facilities, and an attempt to topple the Iranian regime by dismantling the economic foundation on which the state's institutions rest.Trump and Netanyahu don't need a guarantee of success in this venture to pursue it. It's enough for them to convince themselves that they have a chance at a quick victory that compensates for their previous losses.And this is the dilemma history teaches us: the most dangerous gamblers aren't those who enter the gamble for the first time, but those who have already lost and are now willing to risk everything just to avoid admitting defeat.
Yes, Iran might retaliate by destroying energy facilities in the Gulf, oil prices might spike to catastrophic levels, but according to this bet, that would only last for a limited time. And after the fall of the Iranian regime and the end of the war, the destroyed facilities can be rebuilt, production restored, and prices lowered.As for continuing the current war without resolution, that could mean energy prices remain high and the economic drain persists for much longer.
In other words, they might be betting that enduring a massive economic catastrophe for weeks or months is better than enduring a war of attrition that could last years.And here lies the danger of these calculations.Because the success of this bet hinges on one assumption: that destroying Iran's energy facilities will indeed lead to the rapid collapse of the Iranian regime.
But what if that doesn't happen?What if Iran retaliates by destroying Gulf energy facilities, yet the Iranian regime holds firm, the war drags on, and the temporary economic crisis they bet on turns into a long-term economic disaster?Then Trump and Netanyahu would have committed a strategic blunder whose consequences could outweigh everything the war has seen so far.And this brings us back to history.Hitler bet on crushing the Soviet Union in months, only to end up with Germany's destruction and the occupation of Berlin. Napoleon bet on subduing Russia, and his campaign became the beginning of his empire's collapse. Stalin approved the invasion of South Korea in 1950, believing a quick victory was possible, only for the war to turn into a devastating international confrontation. And in Vietnam, one American president after another escalated the war and sent more troops and money, hoping to achieve the victory their predecessors had failed to secure, until the adventure ended in a historic American defeat.
The common thread among these examples isn't the similarity of the military and political circumstances, but the decision-making mindset: the belief that doubling down on the risk after failure might achieve the victory that the first risk couldn't.And that's why I believe that the upcoming American-Israeli war on Iran, if it happens, will have as one of its main goals the destruction of Iran's oil and gas facilities, and an attempt to topple the Iranian regime by dismantling the economic foundation on which the state's institutions rest.Trump and Netanyahu don't need a guarantee of success in this venture to pursue it. It's enough for them to convince themselves that they have a chance at a quick victory that compensates for their previous losses.And this is the dilemma history teaches us: the most dangerous gamblers aren't those who enter the gamble for the first time, but those who have already lost and are now willing to risk everything just to avoid admitting defeat.
kobra
Registered Member
Dont hit the nerve of our Army fanboys...
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
this area of Iran - Pakistan is a total mess on both sides of the border
Ali_Baba
VIP Member
> interesting video that suggests that the USA has used the time to work out all the command nodes of the mosaic doctrine that the USA will go after now. And that they didn’t do that planning for the last conflict but has prepared it now.
The professor suggests this new war(which will be longer than 3 days) will be a lot like Operation Rolling Thunder from the Vietnam war..
Shags202
Trusted Member
l
Is it me or did you post a bias one point of view what actually did happen ask me this what would have happened if jus 1 percent of refugees in an Arab country were found out to be collaborating with an enemy I feel bad for those refugees but blame Mossad and the CIA for what occurred Iran spent decades attempting to look after millions of refugees before the war occurred
Is it me or did you post a bias one point of view what actually did happen ask me this what would have happened if jus 1 percent of refugees in an Arab country were found out to be collaborating with an enemy I feel bad for those refugees but blame Mossad and the CIA for what occurred Iran spent decades attempting to look after millions of refugees before the war occurred
shapurzolaktaf
Trusted Member
Yaayy yoopi yaayy, 114,5 a barrel, that's an expensive day!!! Now repeat.. yaayy yoopi yaayy...Scott Bessent is gay..
r3alist
Elite Member
This means very little lol
shapurzolaktaf
Trusted Member
Be r3al, it's just the beginning, situation is relatively calm and the brent paper price is almost at 115. It will start to kick in at a certain moment. Lets see how it develops.
shapurzolaktaf
Trusted Member
US President Donald Trump on Thursday accused Iran of fabricating reports of attacks on commercial vessels to drive up oil prices ahead of the US midterm elections, amid escalating maritime tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
"Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the U.S. Midterm Election," Trump claimed on his Truth Social platform, adding that Tehran is "making up fake hits, mines, and everything else, because more Oil is coming through the Hormuz Strait now than it did even prior to the beginning of the Conflict.”
r3alist
Elite Member
What's your target price where someone actually pays that much attention?
The Americans are managing the markets, they have given the markets time to adjust for risk premiums through statements and Iran are doing the same by giving their intention away, scripted theatre
I can't find any data on default rates since the war begun, probably cheap airlines will face distress, unless it's a significant increase at once...at once I mean....things will carry on, a new equilibrium will be adjusted to, bigger companies will buy out smaller ones, keep watching that line though
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