You are right, Trump when he first come down from the elavator he thought he would run for the presidential race with little to no hope to win, hence he just keep saying wildest things on TV, cartering to racist and Xenophobic tropes, 4chan conspiracy theories, for him it was just some fun time, i doubt he even thought that he will become the republican primary in 2016, and Hilary's primary doesn't help with the situation either and rest is history.
Trump is populatist maybe but he is definitely at this point become a cult leader, his supporters which are very vocal in various tv shows and street interviews gives very cult like vibes, you can ask 5 of his supporters regarding one issue and you will get 5 different justifications, everything he does is already justified even if it goes against the values these republican trying to build their politics on. From Releasing Epstien files to mocking Islam over the treatment of women, when Trump can go around call women names like Fat, Ugly, miss piggy and Grab them by the &ussy, he can mock disable people, veterns, deny his loss in 2020 election, claims fraud without a single shread of evidence but his supporters don't care, Trump to me is not just a bad leader its just the man has not a single decent bone in his body, he is just outright pathetic low class failed businessman with a potty mouth, hence he decided to run as republicans he knows that how dumb the avergae republican voter is, in his own words... he said i can shot a guy in the middle of street and his people will support him, he also said i love the poorly educated, which is very evident from his supporters, he also said that he can said the dumbest thing and yet his crown will cheer him and they even did (facepalm moment).
It is still a mystery to me that how come a Country like United states of Fcuking America, not one but twice elected this cheap, incoherent potty mouth indecent human being, it still boggles my mind to this day, i can expect such leadership in some 3rd world country but from America? Still unbelieveable.