Iran launches Operation True Promise - massive missile/drone strikes across Israel, Israel allegedly responds with quadcopters

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PakAl said:
They will face complete isolation and extreme sanctions. Its best for them to copy Israel, build nukes but don't test them.
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Iran is facing extreme sanctions right now without having tested nuclear weapon. So, when Iranians should ask themselves, if they are already facing the most severe sanctions then why not just go ahead and test the nukes. Atleast they will aquire some level of deterrence.

The sanctions are in place to stop Iran's financial capability to support its nuclear program. So chances of more extreme sanctions are linked with Iran's current confusing status.

When Pakistan was building its nuclear capability, it had lot of sanctions over it and when Pakistan was about to test nuclear weapon, the US offered lot of fighter jets and financial aid but in Iran's case they are never going to be offered anything at all. So they are already in worst spot, so they why just not go ahead and become a nuclear power.
 
HamidAgha said:
Exactly. Anyone who says test a nuke is actually either not very smart or wants Iran to fail. Iran must keep the element of surprise till the end.
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There is no "Surprise" in hiding alleged capability. Everyone knows what exactly we are talking about and that's nuclear capability. Everyone knows what it is, how it works, what it does. Its not something which world has not seen before.

Nuclear weapon capability gives you deterrence. That means, your enemy is 100% sure that you got nukes and you can't by toyed around. Only reason to not test nukes for Iran is either enjoying economical benefits (which clearly its not enjoying) OR not have the capability to test nuclear weapon as of now (Which is most likely the case right now)

Right now, Israel thinks that Iran is not a nuclear power and that's the only reason Israel keep killing your top scientists and keep trying with full force to apply pressure on you and lobby sanctions against you. So you can't have enough resources to build a nuclear capability. Israel thinks that you are close to becoming nuclear power but you are not there yet. Perhaps that's really is the case. Otherwise, why not to just declare if you have achieved this capability and create deterrence against israeli aggression.
 
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HamidAgha said:
Your second paragraph refutes your first one. But if we take your first paragraph in isolation, then if Iran were to test a nuke only having the ability to produce a handful of warheads then the detterance may not be enough for US or even Israel. It would only work if Iran has already amassed a large enough stockpile to do such an act. But still, more economic isolation and alienting existing allies would still be very much on the cards no matter what.
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Handful of nukes not a deterrence against Israel ? Are you really sure lol.

Israelis would never risk doing anything that could in return wipe out their major cities / population centers. Israel is a small country and only jewish country in the world. Handful of nukes are more than a deterance to Israel.

But yes, you are right if you are talking about USA. its not a deterance even at first place because you don't have any delivery mechanism to launch nukes at mainland USA. So unless you make ICBMs or nuclear powered submarines the iranian nukes won't be an issue for the US.
 
Awwad said:
Handful of nukes not a deterrence against Israel ? Are you really sure lol.

Israelis would never risk doing anything that could in return wipe out their major cities / population centers. Israel is a small country and only jewish country in the world. Handful of nukes are more than a deterance to Israel.

But yes, you are right if you are talking about USA. its not a deterance even at first place because you don't have any delivery mechanism to launch nukes at mainland USA. So unless you make ICBMs or nuclear powered submarines the iranian nukes won't be an issue for the US.
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No, a handful of nukes wont magically disappear a nation. It would destroy a few cities but not disable another nuclear power's ability to respond decisively, especially with the stockpiles Israel has.

Again, your last paragraph refutes the rest of your comment, since the US would intervene in a nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran, so Iran's stockpile would have to account for this.
 
Awwad said:
There is no "Surprise" in hiding alleged capability. Everyone knows what exactly we are talking about and that's nuclear capability. Everyone knows what it is, how it works, what it does. Its not something which world has not seen before.

Nuclear weapon capability gives you deterrence. That means, your enemy is 100% sure that you got nukes and you can't by toyed around. Only reason to not test nukes for Iran is either enjoying economical benefits (which clearly its not enjoying) OR not have the capability to test nuclear weapon as of now (Which is most likely the case right now)

Right now, Israel thinks that Iran is not a nuclear power and that's the only reason Israel keep killing your top scientists and keep trying with full force to apply pressure on you and lobby sanctions against you. So you can't have enough resources to build a nuclear capability. Israel thinks that you are close to becoming nuclear power but you are not there yet. Perhaps that's really is the case. Otherwise, why not to just declare if you have achieved this capability and create deterrence against israeli aggression.
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You don't need to waste time convincing me of the benefits of nuclear weapons so I wont respond to that. But we literally just spoke about the downsides of alienation and economic isolation if Iran were to reveal its hypothetical nuclear weapons. So there is definitely a case to keep it a secret. Also I'm not doubting nations know what nuclear weapons are, but catching your adversaries unaware in a nuclear strike will have more benefits than them knowing what to expect. That's just basic warfare.

Maybe that is the case regarding your last paragraph, which makes all this talk of setting off a nuke absolutely half-baked and retarded.
 
HamidAgha said:
No, a handful of nukes wont magically disappear a nation. It would destroy a few cities but not disable another nuclear power's ability to respond decisively, especially with the stockpiles Israel has.
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obviously they have second strike capability

but I don't think you need many nuclear warheads to eliminate Israel as a functioning state considering how tiny it is. the nuclear radiation would cover every inch of its occupied territory
 
Israel is making a lot of threats about their response to any potential Iranian strike

They are taking a leaf out of Trump's book when he threatened to destroy 52 Iranian historic sites if Iran responded to their murder of Soleimani at all. That arguably led to Iran taking a more limited response (I remember Iranian generals claimed Iran's response was the weakest of the 14 options discussed), which did not result in any US response at all.

Conclusion: ignore their barking. They are scared.
 
A1Kaid said:
Tough situation for Iran. There are 2 variables here, attack approach: direct or indirect, and attacker: proxy or Iran itself.

No attack and Iran will appear pathetically weak (in most cases).

Attack by proxy (bare minimum), you do some damage but you’ll be perceived as weak and limited.

Attack directly, Iran will appear firm, but faces getting deeper into the conflict. The type of attack will determine whether Iran is truly strong or not.

No matter the option, there will be internal disagreements within Iran. No matter what Iranians should unite in whatever action they take if they choose to do so.

IMO, the best approach Iran can take here is a direct attack on Israeli assets (military or government installations). Combined with proxy attacks. Iran has to show Israel it will pay a heavy price if it continues.

Not attacking will only further embolden Israel and lead to further killings of Iranians generals and scientists. Ultimately it sets the stage for direct Israeli attacks on Iran itself, which Iran has successfully deterred so far.

Israel will of course retaliate in some form (likely armed force) Iran at that point should just defend or counter attack depending how heavy the reaction is.

In the meantime, Iran should be strengthening their alliances…
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Great analysis also in direct attack Iran has two options either attack on Israeli soil or some foreign soil similar to what Isreal did. Issue with second is hard to find target in nation where Iran can do attack without spoiling host country relations.
 
@Hamartia Antidote

Iran can move freely from Iraq to South Syria.. Iran simply won't attack Israel directly until they have moved all the troops in South Syria close to the Deira area..

The solution is conventional warfare this is the Israelis weakest link.. Iran can endure a pro-longed war of attrution while the Israelis can't... Iran is almost 100m population. They have a factory pool of endless cannon fodders.

Putting Israel under an intensive conventional conflict will favor them as Israel won't be able to keep up.

The cost of casualty will simply be to much for Israel to endure and their armed forces will collapse from losses.

The only existential threat Iran can face is someone who can match them in scale and manpower and Israel is far from that.. Strikes some sites won't win you a conflict we have already seen it in Ukraine and many other places but defeat and victory depends on can YOU REALLY HANDLE THE MEAT GRINDER, WAR OF ATTRUTION AND CAN YOU REPLACE YOUR FALLEN ONCE
 
Palestinians are almost extinct in Gaza and Iran is still giving a "harsh lesson" to Israel.

Iranian embassy in Damascus bombed,but Iran is still "replying" to Israeli aggression.
 
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battalion25 said:
The solution is conventional warfare this is the Israelis weakest link.. Iran can endure a pro-longed war of attrution while the Israelis can't... Iran is almost 100m population. They have a factory pool of endless cannon fodders.
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The moment Iran starts moving huge armies in Syria or Iraq,like you mentioned in the other thread,the Israeli Air Force will bomb them. They cannot reach southern Syria and Iraq in big numbers with significant equipment.
 
battalion25 said:
The only existential threat Iran can face is someone who can match them in scale and manpower and Israel is far from that.. Strikes some sites won't win you a conflict we have already seen it in Ukraine and many other places but defeat and victory depends on can YOU REALLY HANDLE THE MEAT GRINDER, WAR OF ATTRUTION AND CAN YOU REPLACE YOUR FALLEN ONCE
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It is touching you much you value the lives of your fellow Muslims and want them to march like cannon fodder.
 
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