Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[RescueRanger]

Things are definitely heating up
Look at all these restricted airspace warnings;

 

[Persian Gulf]

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@Persian Gulf

See? Don’t be so skeptical next time

this explains the sightings in Russia but not necessarily the sightings in Iraq or Iran. I am still sceptical

 

[Immortals]

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Strange timing by HZ after given the lower # of attacks by HZ last 72 hours on the border with Israel

 

[Immortals]

Iron Dome:

20 missiles per launcher (+ reserves and inventory for re-loading)
3-4 launchers per battery (60-80 interceptors per battery)

Israel is thought to have 10 Iron Dome batteries deployed across Israel

20 x 3-4 x 10 = 600-800 Iron Dome interceptors across all of Israel at any one time

assume at least 50% of these batteries are facing the north to protect Haifa, Acre, Safed and north Israel generally = 300-400 Iron Dome interceptors available to face Hezbollah rockets at any one time.

Hezbollah has truck based rocket launchers capable of launching 40-70 rockets per vehicle. 6-7 of these vehicles each launching 50 rockets in parallel would be sufficient to deplete entire Israeli Iron Dome interceptor in operation in the north (at a time, until Israel reloads them). If Hezbollah has even 20,000 such rockets (very conservative), in a full scale war we can assume serious degradation of Israeli Iron Dome capability after at most 30-50% of Hezbollah's rockets are used (10 total reloads of all 10 Iron Dome batteries across Israel).

What are the numbers for Patriot, David's Sling, THAAD and Arrow-2/3 in Israel? @Nuffle

2 interceptors are launched for every 1 rocket by Iron Dome. However, the targeting radar for Iron Dome only launches interceptors for rockets that have high statistical probability to land in population zone. No one knows the exact logic algo for that. But rockets that will land in open fields and away from threat zones do not have interceptors fired.

So given the wide inaccuracies of Katyusha rockets, HZ would need to fire much more rockets to get Iron Dome to waste more interceptors. Or it will need to move to more advanced rockets like Zezal series.

 

[Immortals]

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[Persian Gulf]

2 interceptors are launched for every 1 rocket by Iron Dome. However, the targeting radar for Iron Dome only launches interceptors for rockets that have high statistical probability to land in population zone. No one knows the exact logic algo for that. But rockets that will land in open fields and away from threat zones do not have interceptors fired.

So given the wide inaccuracies of Katyusha rockets, HZ would need to fire much more rockets to get Iron Dome to waste more interceptors. Or it will need to move to more advanced rockets like Zezal series.

2:1 ratio vs only firing against rockets headed for urban areas could plausibly offset each other

 

[Persian Gulf]

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Patriot missiles used against Hezbollah rocket barrage

 

[Nuffle]

Iron Dome:

20 missiles per launcher (+ reserves and inventory for re-loading)
3-4 launchers per battery (60-80 interceptors per battery)

Israel is thought to have 10 Iron Dome batteries deployed across Israel

20 x 3-4 x 10 = 600-800 Iron Dome interceptors across all of Israel at any one time

assume at least 50% of these batteries are facing the north to protect Haifa, Acre, Safed and north Israel generally = 300-400 Iron Dome interceptors available to face Hezbollah rockets at any one time.

Hezbollah has truck based rocket launchers capable of launching 40-70 rockets per vehicle. 6-7 of these vehicles each launching 50 rockets in parallel would be sufficient to deplete entire Israeli Iron Dome interceptor in operation in the north (at a time, until Israel reloads them). If Hezbollah has even 20,000 such rockets (very conservative), in a full scale war we can assume serious degradation of Israeli Iron Dome capability after at most 30-50% of Hezbollah's rockets are used (10 total reloads of all 10 Iron Dome batteries across Israel).

What are the numbers for Patriot, David's Sling, THAAD and Arrow-2/3 in Israel? @Nuffle

You can't trust The Military Balance 2024 too much, but they are:
3 bty with Arrow 2/3(probably 2 Arrow 2 batteries and an Arrow 3 battery)
4 bty with M901 Patriot PAC-2
2 bty with David’s Sling
10 bty with Iron Dome

The US sent THAAD to bolster Israel's defenses in addition to additional Patriot batteries. Recent news that a US Navy CG is also close to Israel for protection.

1 THAAD battery - 6-9 launchers with 8 missiles per launcher
1 Arrow 2/3 batteries - 4-8 launchers with 6 missiles per launcher
1 Patriot battery - 8 launchers per battery (16 PAC-3 missiles per launcher versus four PAC-2 missiles per launcher)
1 David Sling battery - 6 launchers with 12 missiles per launcher
1 Iron Dome battery - 3-4 launchers with 20 Tamir interceptors per launcher

I don't know about that, I know they have based THAAD in Saudi Arabia. In Israel, the Americans have 1 AN/TPY-2 X-band radar at Mount Keren.
Jordan: 2 bty M902/M903 Patriot PAC-3/PAC-3 MSE
Kuwait: 2 SAM bty M902/M903 Patriot PAC-3/PAC-3 MSE
Qatar: 2 SAM bty M902/M903 Patriot PAC-3/PAC-3 MSE and 1 AN/TPY-2 X-band radar
United Arab Emirates: 2 SAM bty M902/M903 Patriot PAC-3/PAC-3 MSE
Saudi Arabia: 1 SAM bty M902/M903 Patriot PAC-3/PAC-3 MSE and 1 SAM bty THAAD

Since the US promises to help Israel under the command of CENTCOM, the US can probably provide some type of early warning due to its orbital surveillance system that detects missile launches leaving the atmosphere.

Tracking would be carried out by the organic radars of the Patriot system and the THAAD that they operate and perhaps by some long-range ground-based radar.

The bad thing about the Saudi Patriots is that they are, unless I'm mistaken, the PAC-2 version, and are not effective against medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM).

PAC-2s are best suited to act against tactical ballistic missiles (TBM) and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM).

They are complemented by THAAD which are capable of engaging SRBM, MRBM and IRBM missiles.

Here is an interesting analysis of ABM/AA capacity:

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Basically defense against American ballistic missiles is more or less like this:
Tactical ballistic missiles: PAC-2, SM-2 Block IV, SM-6, PAC-3
Short-range ballistic missiles: PAC-3, PAC-3 MSE, SM-6, THAAD
Medium-range ballistic missiles: PAC-3 MSE, SM-6, THAAD, SM-3 Block I, SM-3 Block IB, SM-3 Block IIA
Intermediate-range ballistic missiles: THAAD, SM-3 Block IB, SM-3 Block IIA
ICBM missiles: THAAD, SM-3 Block IIA, GBI (GMD)

By removing the GBI, everyone else can be in the CENTCOM theater, including the entire air wing of an aircraft carrier.

 

[Persian Gulf]

You can't trust The Military Balance 2024 too much, but they are:
3 bty with Arrow 2/3(probably 2 Arrow 2 batteries and an Arrow 3 battery)
4 bty with M901 Patriot PAC-2
2 bty with David’s Sling
10 bty with Iron Dome

10 Iron Dome batteries seems accurate and widely reported (as of mid-2021, could be 12 now if US sent 2 more batteries, not confirmed)

MDAA says 3 Arrow-2 batteries and 3 Arrow-3 batteries. What's your source for 3 batteries in total?

MDAA also says 3 Patriot PAC-2 batteries, where is your source for 4?

David's Sling is designed for Hezbollah Fateh-class SRBMs and cruise missiles (but so far only used against Hamas rockets), so unlikely to be useful against Iranian MRBMs

Potential countermeasures to Iranian MRBMs: Patriot and Arrow (and maybe THAAD if Israel has it)

Maybe we should start a separate thread to assess the deployment of Israeli air defence systems

 

[Nuffle]

10 Iron Dome batteries seems accurate and widely reported (as of mid-2021, could be 12 now if US sent 2 more batteries, not confirmed)

MDAA says 3 Arrow-2 batteries and 3 Arrow-3 batteries. What's your source for 3 batteries in total?

MDAA also says 3 Patriot PAC-2 batteries, where is your source for 4?

David's Sling is designed for Hezbollah Fateh-class SRBMs and cruise missiles (but so far only used against Hamas rockets), so unlikely to be useful against Iranian MRBMs

Potential countermeasures to Iranian MRBMs: Patriot and Arrow (and maybe THAAD if Israel has it)

Maybe we should start a separate thread to assess the deployment of Israeli air defence systems

The source is The Military Balance 2024:

 

[Persian Gulf]

The source is The Military Balance 2024:
View attachment 33291

Thanks. No THAAD in Israel is confirmed?

 

[Nuffle]

Thanks. No THAAD in Israel is confirmed?

As I said, you still can't trust these numbers. The delivery of the third battery of Arrow 2 was speculated and as Israel had already received the first launcher of the first battery of Arrow 3 in 2017, TMB 2024 would have to be informing that there are 4 Arrow 2/3 batteries. In any case, we are approaching the number close to Israel's anti-aircraft defense.

THAAD I haven't seen confirmation yet.

Although the US sent:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-sending-additional-air-defense-systems-middle-east-pentagon-2023-10-22/

Probably from some CENTCOM country that had THAAD.

 

[Immortals]

2:1 ratio vs only firing against rockets headed for urban areas could plausibly offset each other

As long as rockets have a greater accuracy rate than 50% and are being aimed at civilian/military zones.

I don’t know the accuracy rate of these rockets. Based on Hamas firing 10,000 during the recent war, it doesn’t appear accuracy is very good. Nor do many make it thru shield. Which makes sense, it’s a simple ballistic object following a fixed trajectory within low altitude. As long as counter battery radar can pick it, then it’s simple physics calculations.

 

[Immortals]

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@tsunset look at this clown.

When I first followed him he posted sources and credible info. Then he amassed a ton of followers and became a propaganda spewing machine.

 

[tsunset]

I think there will be no attack for this week, better wait 2 or 3 weeks/ a month, for the moment they judge the best