Iran launches Operation True Promise - massive missile/drone strikes across Israel, Israel allegedly responds with quadcopters

[jauk]

Another war researcher confirming vast number of the last wave of Iranian BMs successfully impacted targets after AD depletion by preceding waves.

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[Raiden]

Iran absolutely does not have tens of thousands of ballistic missiles. US intelligence estimates 3,000.

The same USA predicted that Russia would be running out on missiles by August 2022. You can take the US intelligence estimate seriously but note that their estimate is not the holy grail of truth.

 

[tsunset]

Iran has at least 5 to 6 digits ballistic missiles, from a standpoint of knowing Iran production and footage of them, and exports

 

[Raiden]

The number 3000 ballistic missile is actually (IIRC) goes back to an intel assessment back in 2016.

Here's a post from 2022 citing the same number

Top general in Middle East warns Iran has 3,000 ballistic missiles

The top U.S. general in the Middle East on Tuesday said that Iran remained the greatest threat to the region and that it had some 3,000 ballistic missiles that were capable of hitting Israel.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Am not expert on Iran's BM manufacturing, but it's common sense that Iran hasn't yet stop producing BMs since 2016, maybe the Iranians could tell what's the full rate production numbers on Iran's BMs.

 

[UKBengali]

Doesn't matter, both the Zircon (HCM) and Kinzhal (Hypersonic ALBM) were thought to be invincible...until they got shot.

There are many scenario where HGV will be used and there's no such thing as guarantee that they will have 100% breakthrough

Dude, you don’t have to agree with me but you obviously don’t understand what the difference between HGV and hypersonic is.

Let’s leave this for now.

 

[925boy]

Most of the drones seem to be slow moving. I don't find it difficult to believe it.

so you believe slow moving = easy to target? that just shows you dont understand how drone and air defenses work in general- haven't you learned from the Ukraine war how slow moving simple Shahed 136 drones have been hard for Ukraine to intercept and the damage they've done to Ukraine?

 

[the saint]

My take is that one of the underlying statements Iran made though the retaliation is that our missiles can hit you(israhell)... and if needed we can nuke you.

 

[Raiden]

Dude, you don’t have to agree with me but you obviously don’t understand what the difference between HGV and hypersonic is.

Let’s leave this for now.

I do understand, but it seems you're the one who don't understand that there is no such thing as an impossible intercept.

Believe me the fanboys used came up with **** tons of arguments about why Kinzhal and Zircon can't be intercepted once upon a time. And now people are doing the same with HGV hypersonics

 

[tsunset]

I do understand, but it seems you're the one who don't understand that there is no such thing as an impossible intercept.

Believe me the fanboys used came up with **** tons of arguments about why Kinzhal and Zircon can't be intercepted once upon a time. And now people are doing the same with HGV hypersonics

When did Circumsized got intercepted?

 

[Hopefully Pessimistic]

Anyone can confirm this?

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[UKBengali]

I do understand, but it seems you're the one who don't understand that there is no such thing as an impossible intercept.

Believe me the fanboys used came up with **** tons of arguments about why Kinzhal and Zircon can't be intercepted once upon a time. And now people are doing the same with HGV hypersonics

When intercept possibility goes to “very low” you can say impossible.

If you fire 10 HGV missiles and 1-2 get intercepted that would be considered a success for the attacking side.

Like I say, let’s move on from this convo.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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expensive day

 

[Abid123]

@Trench Broom

Where are you?

 

[Al-Zakir]

why you guys only think about death

I don't think Israel is very happy but if they are happy then they will not respond so I am happy too

Ignore all who doubt Iran. It's not worth it. Some people will always oppose Iran no matter what Iran does.

Iran need not to prove anything to anyone anymore. It has already proved itself as a worthy one and rest of muslim world should follow its lead. It has won the heart and mind of orodanry Muslims in pelistine and around the globe. Iran did well ma sha Allah. IRAN Zindabad

 

[Raiden]

When intercept possibility goes to “very low” you can say impossible.

If you fire 10 HGV missiles and 1-2 get intercepted that would be considered a success for the attacking side.

Like I say, let’s move on from this convo.

Impossible means ZERO/NONE/ZILCH, and because there's no such thing as ZERO probability of intercept, it's not the same as very low, which is the very idea of hypersonics to begin with. to lower the chance of interception by speed (and some in combination with maneuver) to higher the chance of a breakthrough, by making sure the percentage of hit by defending missile get lower.