Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

Immortals said:
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I think the base is abandonned at this point

It is literaly a massive punching bag for Hezbollah since months
 
Iran must adjust its weaponry standards to one punch nuff policy.

One missile hit, guarantees complete destruction on the target.

US explosives are very advanced, Iran must study the explosives and how to maximize destruction with few payloads.

Iran also must develop penetration heads, capable to disable anything from within.
 
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Ansarallah have shot down 3 US MQ-9 drones since November 2023

this time it looks like they used a faster interceptor missile (than the usual Iranian loitering 358 SAM), possibly derivative of the Iranian Taer-2 SAM series
 
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𝗔𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗻 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹𝗶 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹

Israeli War Council member Benny Gantz has disclosed that he broke his foot during a bike ride in Southern Israel. He was taken to the Sheba Medical Center in Tel Aviv.

This marks the third accident within a week. This first was Israeli minister of National Security, Ben Gvir and the second were the parents of Haim Biton.
 
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My take

1)America🇺🇸
2)Israel 🇮🇱
3)UK 🇬🇧
4)Germany 🇩🇪
5)France 🇫🇷
Reactionary states:
6)Jordan 🇯🇴
7)Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦
8)UAE 🇦🇪
9)North Iraq autonomous Kurd region. 🇮🇶🇰🇼
10) Egypt 🇪🇬 or Kuwait
 
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more pessimistic assessment
 
Persian Gulf said:
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more pessimistic assessment
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Not pessimistic, but backed by evidence. I said this prior to the Israeli-Iranian skirmish and was attacked on here.

The evidence is available for all to see, Houthi attacks via drones, CMs, and BMs against Israel and shipping has not kinetically had much of a effect. In fact, a commercial ship was just attacked past few days by a Houthi Ballisric Missile, that’s right Ballisric missile…it suffered minor damage and continued sailing. Now that is against a defenseless target.

Houthi CMs and drone attacks to southern Israel have been overwhelming unsuccessful. The Iranian attack on Israel kinetically didn’t create major damage that’s even after dismissing the absurd western claim of 200+ drones, 100+ BM, and 30CMs. Even if the attack was 25% of the proclaimed western amount, it was still kinetically marginally successful at best. The 100+ attacks by Iraqi militias using drones, cms, etc has also been unsuccessful.

The only group to have somewhat success has been HZ and most of their success has come from ATGM/PGMs and artillery rockets (Fath like rockets) and a part of that is due to their short distance from South Lebanon to Northern Israel which reduces reaction Time.

So yes, he is right that the future depends on supersonic missiles and more high end platforms like Fattah 1-2 and other missiles built to Circumvent current ABM tech. Again that is evolution of warfare.

I’m sure Iran’s engineers now have plenty of data from Yemen war and Gaza War to understand the effectiveness of the “old era” of ballistic missiles (Ghadr, Qiam, Emad,) and CMs (C-802 family of missiles, subsonic conventional RCS designs).

Future belongs to hypersonic BMs & CMs with supersonic CMs peppered in.
 
Immortals said:
Not pessimistic, but backed by evidence. I said this prior to the Israeli-Iranian skirmish and was attacked on here.

The evidence is available for all to see, Houthi attacks via drones, CMs, and BMs against Israel and shipping has not kinetically had much of a effect. In fact, a commercial ship was just attacked past few days by a Houthi Ballisric Missile, that’s right Ballisric missile…it suffered minor damage and continued sailing. Now that is against a defenseless target.

Houthi CMs and drone attacks to southern Israel have been overwhelming unsuccessful. The Iranian attack on Israel kinetically didn’t create major damage that’s even after dismissing the absurd western claim of 200+ drones, 100+ BM, and 30CMs. Even if the attack was 25% of the proclaimed western amount, it was still kinetically marginally successful at best. The 100+ attacks by Iraqi militias using drones, cms, etc has also been unsuccessful.

The only group to have somewhat success has been HZ and most of their success has come from ATGM/PGMs and artillery rockets (Fath like rockets) and a part of that is due to their short distance from South Lebanon to Northern Israel which reduces reaction Time.

So yes, he is right that the future depends on supersonic missiles and more high end platforms like Fattah 1-2 and other missiles built to Circumvent current ABM tech. Again that is evolution of warfare.

I’m sure Iran’s engineers now have plenty of data from Yemen war and Gaza War to understand the effectiveness of the “old era” of ballistic missiles (Ghadr, Qiam, Emad,) and CMs (C-802 family of missiles, subsonic conventional RCS designs).

Future belongs to hypersonic BMs & CMs with supersonic CMs peppered in.
Click to expand...
against a defenseless target.
Click to expand...
And this is why they struggle to do big damage, besides the fact that it is defenseless, it does not carry what a typical US cruiser/destroyer carries, or else they use some kind of modified warheads but this is not the thing

US warships are known to have absurd number of VLS cells (100+ on some), one CM/BM gets through and hit where the guns are at or worse on the VLS cells, the whole ship will explode in Moskva-like fashion, no matter if the warhead is 150kg Noor or 500kg like the old SYs, big chain reaction that will not only sink the ship, but massacre and burn alive its crew

This also applies to every warship, the difference of them being able to defend themselves, and the other is a big piece of floating scrap

At least make something like Onyx or BrahMos to have the basics of supersonic CMs, this alone would already put challenge on US warships, then transition into HCM like BrahMos2 or Chinese HCM, but Fattah-2 is branded as an HCM if i'm not wrong
 
Immortals said:
Not pessimistic, but backed by evidence. I said this prior to the Israeli-Iranian skirmish and was attacked on here.

The evidence is available for all to see, Houthi attacks via drones, CMs, and BMs against Israel and shipping has not kinetically had much of a effect. In fact, a commercial ship was just attacked past few days by a Houthi Ballisric Missile, that’s right Ballisric missile…it suffered minor damage and continued sailing. Now that is against a defenseless target.

Houthi CMs and drone attacks to southern Israel have been overwhelming unsuccessful. The Iranian attack on Israel kinetically didn’t create major damage that’s even after dismissing the absurd western claim of 200+ drones, 100+ BM, and 30CMs. Even if the attack was 25% of the proclaimed western amount, it was still kinetically marginally successful at best. The 100+ attacks by Iraqi militias using drones, cms, etc has also been unsuccessful.

The only group to have somewhat success has been HZ and most of their success has come from ATGM/PGMs and artillery rockets (Fath like rockets) and a part of that is due to their short distance from South Lebanon to Northern Israel which reduces reaction Time.

So yes, he is right that the future depends on supersonic missiles and more high end platforms like Fattah 1-2 and other missiles built to Circumvent current ABM tech. Again that is evolution of warfare.

I’m sure Iran’s engineers now have plenty of data from Yemen war and Gaza War to understand the effectiveness of the “old era” of ballistic missiles (Ghadr, Qiam, Emad,) and CMs (C-802 family of missiles, subsonic conventional RCS designs).

Future belongs to hypersonic BMs & CMs with supersonic CMs peppered in.
Click to expand...
Hezbollah benefits from proximity to Israel and uses weapons that cannot be intercepted by Iron Dome etc (ATGMs and Falaq class mortars)

he effectively asks what iranian weapon could penetrate Israeli ABM shield without resorting to a saturation strike

but the Israeli ABM shield is the most advanced and dense in the world and only has to cover a tiny entity with 10 mins+ warning time from launches in Iran (if Iran doesn't make the launch obvious in advance). so I don't think any of us were under the impression Iran could fire 1 of any magical ABM evading missile and get through every time. that's just not going to happen. and saturation is precisely Iran's strategy.

let's assume the worst: Iran did fire c. 100 MRBMs and only c. 9 got through (9% success rate, or 18% if we discount those that apparently failed to launch). Israel used c. 25% of its entire Arrow interceptor stockpile to intercept c. 40 mostly SCUD based MRBMs. is that a good trade off? is that sustainable? 3-4 more of those waves and suddenly Israel's interception capability is severely depleted and every missile will have a better chance of meeting Mohsen's criteria of likelihood of impacting!

as for the future of missiles, you are right that lessons were learned and IRGC will likely prioritise more advanced missiles (I presume they understood well from Yemeni experience that SCUD based missiles are food for ABM systems, as many of us said on here for ages). however, even if Fattah-2 can have a 30% success rate vs c. 10% for Iranian SCUD class MRBMs (Emad, Ghadr, Rezvan etc), if Fattah-2 costs more than 3x Emad (with lower kinetic energy on impact given smaller warhead and slower impact velocity) is it worth it?
 
tsunset said:
but Fattah-2 is branded as an HCM if i'm not wrong
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well its a bit strange because it has the same first stage as Fattah-1 so it does seem to leave the atmosphere

but the RV is like a cruise missile and can (only) manoeuvre inside the atmosphere

but I don't see why Fattah couldn't be converted to anti-ship missiles
 
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