Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations
- Thread starter jauk
- Start date
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
this is the only thing I was really worried about from the start of the war: Israel cutting off Egypt and Gaza (and thus the tunnel network used for smuggling into Gaza). also means Hamas senior leaders can't flee into Egypt.
Sinwar is probably surrounded by a majority of the remaining live Israeli prisoners but Israel doesn't care about that so they won't hesitate to take them all out if they get the opportunity (then make up some lie to hide it).
Immortals
Elite Member
You are correct, I did a quick search.
Tamir likely cost ~50K a missile. So 100K for 2 maybe a little more maybe a little less. But a grad rocket or Hamas homemade rocket cost as little as $300/rocket so call it $500/rocket or even 1K/rocket
Either way, the economics are in favor of the resistance.
Immortals
Elite Member
I think Sinwar isn’t even in Rafah. Either used tunnels to move to the North or left long ago and is in Syria.
Time will tell. But if Bin Laden could escape Tora Bora in 2001, then anyone has a chance.
Immortals
Elite Member
More clear image and analysis of the attack.
Assessing Israel’s Strike on Iran
In its April 19 attack on Iran, Israel avoided further escalation, while also threatening Iran's most sensitive locations. New CSIS analysis shows how it walked the tightrope.
An intresting tidbit I found from the article above:
The attack could also have escalated the conflict if Iran feared that the strike was part of a larger operation. Even though Israel kept its strike small, Iran might have feared the attack against its air defense infrastructure could have been a prelude to more consequential strikes against its military or political infrastructure. If Tehran believed that such an attack was underway, it would have faced pressure to launch its own strikes before its missiles or aircraft were destroyed on the ground.
The strike minimized this fear by targeting only the shortest-range radar in Iran’s air defense complex, designed not to locate threats but to guide interceptor missiles to their target. Although the system would be ineffective until a new engagement radar was installed, Iran would also have maintained relatively high confidence that the sky above Natanz was not about to be full of Israeli jets.
My opinion:
It is possible the quadcopter strike was launched to take out Iran’s ability to intercept the Israeli 3 BM’s (air launched sparrows), a brazen attempt at a coordinated strike.
Thus if my [theory] is correct then either:
- Iran intercepted the Israeli missile warheads with another system (allegedly a Sayyad based family mid tier system) or possibly with a deployed Bavar-373/Arman.
- Or the missiles did not get intercepted and hit their targets that were obviously not around Isfahan airbase, but possibly somewhere in the S-300 air defense ring that was more secluded.
- Or The missiles failed to reach their target due to whatever reason (jamming/internal failure/fired too soon and not enough range/etc).
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
I don't think he can get to Syria unnoticed, the north is also risky given the Netzarim axis and the fact the north is 80%+ destroyed and he likely has hostages with him to protect him. He must be somewhere in the south, Rafah or Khan Younis or in some tunnel under some other random less urban area in the south. Even if Israel doesn't get him before this round ends, they will probably get him eventually, even if it means violating a ceasefire.
I find it hard to believe Iran would intercept Israeli BMs and not brag about it. If BMs hit a target we would know about it because OSINT / news would release satellite imagery, suggesting they didn't hit anything. Maybe intentionally hit empty space or intentionally fell short in Iraq? Who knows.
vmro
Registered Member
For Israel, by their own words and public expectations, this is step 1, step 2 is conquering S.Lebanon and elimination of Hezbollah as relevant force...They will probably level Beirut expecting pressure from Lebanese on Hezbollah to surrender...If Hezbollah survive first attack, that will be most potent, situation will escalate... Surviving for Hezbollah means to be capable of landing rockets in Northern Israel during the war... And unsafe situation for idf terrorists in Lebanon... If they survive in this long enough, probably year, situation in Israel will escalate on different ways, internal politics, international politics, activities of un tribunals etc... and this is optimistic scenario for Israel, if they get one year from usa for their plans... if war in Ukraine finish this year, and war on Israeli north border escalate, they can be defeated in Lebanon but also they can lose the occupied land of Golan... in long term, this is already strategic defeat for Israel...
If Muslim countries are smart, they should insist on the UN tribunals processing as first condition for any talk...It would hardly possible for zion-terrorists to negate legitimacy of UN institutions with any propagande. International pressure will be crucial for internal crush of Israeli system...till now, this was crucial for zion-terrorists agenda, now is against them...
If Muslim countries are smart, they should insist on the UN tribunals processing as first condition for any talk...It would hardly possible for zion-terrorists to negate legitimacy of UN institutions with any propagande. International pressure will be crucial for internal crush of Israeli system...till now, this was crucial for zion-terrorists agenda, now is against them...
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Israel announces death of 2 IDF Master Sergeants in Hezbollah drone attack in Metula, IDF admits it tried but failed to intercept the drone!
Two IDF soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah-claimed explosive-laden drone attack against an army position near Metula in northern Israel yesterday afternoon, the military announces.
The slain soldiers are named as: Master Sgt. (res.) Dan Kamkagi, 31, of the 551st Brigade's 6551st Battalion, from Kfar Ha-Oranim. Master Sgt. (res.) Nahman Natan Hertz, 31, of the 551st Brigade's 6551st Battalion, from Elazar
The IDF says it attempted, but failed, to intercept the explosive drone that ultimately struck and killed the soldiers.
Another soldier was lightly hurt in the attack, the military adds.
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Israel is using F-15 fighter jets to attempt to intercept these drones, but it appears yesterday the F-15 jet fired 2 AAMs and both failed to intercept the drone.
another drone launched by Hezbollah into Israel today:
Two IDF soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah-claimed explosive-laden drone attack against an army position near Metula in northern Israel yesterday afternoon, the military announces.
The slain soldiers are named as: Master Sgt. (res.) Dan Kamkagi, 31, of the 551st Brigade's 6551st Battalion, from Kfar Ha-Oranim. Master Sgt. (res.) Nahman Natan Hertz, 31, of the 551st Brigade's 6551st Battalion, from Elazar
The IDF says it attempted, but failed, to intercept the explosive drone that ultimately struck and killed the soldiers.
Another soldier was lightly hurt in the attack, the military adds.
--
Israel is using F-15 fighter jets to attempt to intercept these drones, but it appears yesterday the F-15 jet fired 2 AAMs and both failed to intercept the drone.
another drone launched by Hezbollah into Israel today:
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
at least 6 armed drones launched into Israel by Hezbollah today
Israel will probably tell us the driver survived this
tsunset
The Legend
The second one took a massive shot
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
precise ATGM hit by Hezbollah in Metula
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
The Israeli military operation in Rafah will focus on ending the control of the Hamas movement over the crossing
Israel intends to transfer responsibility for managing the Rafah crossing to a private American company after the end of the military operation
Israel pledged not to target the infrastructure at the Rafah crossing in order to continue its operation
Washington made it clear to Tel Aviv that it did not back down from its threat to reduce weapons supplies if it invaded deep into Rafah
Egyptian-Israeli-American agreement for an “armed civilian body” to monitor the Rafah crossing after the end of the military operation
Members of the security company that will manage the Rafah crossing are former soldiers in special units in the US Army.
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this is the biggest threat to Hamas in my opinion, it can't be allowed
vmro
Registered Member
Egypt will be responsible if Gaza become totally blocked, no excuse for them...I hope neo-mamluk junta has minimal common sense and moral, food distribution could be one of the weapons for pressure on Palestinians, israel plan is creating suffers where survival is possible only with going out of Gaza....
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Drones launched by Iraqi Resistance reach Eilat
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