Bangladesh Socio-Political Crisis 2024 and onwards

[Joe Shearer]

@Afif , @Raj-Hindustani @Joe Shearer @Nilgiri

Possible reasons for India to be nervous if the US is indeed provided a foothold against China in BD?

Encroachment?
Balance altering?
Frenemy surveillance?

I feel this is a good opportunity for India to take a step - a long step backward. Bangladesh, and the Bangladeshis, including the crypto-Jamaatis who are everywhere, need to figure things out for themselves. Just at the moment, what they have done to their own country, without much assistance from SHW, is a serious self-inflicted injury. Allowing a nexus of the Army, the Jamaat and the BNP has its own dynamic. The thing is, it is none of India's business, and the more we allow an independent nation to address its own problems, without gratuitous interference, the better.

Regarding the possible hazards, Encroachment can only be a reaction of the seriously compromised External Affairs Ministry (compromised in terms of Indian internal politics) and of the Chief Chowkidar, the National Security Advisor. The rest of the nation, with the possible exception of a home-bred loose cannon, should stop thinking of Bangladesh as an Indian backyard.

Balance altering? Yes, but this is altering a balance that was artificially weighted, and recovering from this may not be unnatural, nor should it provoke any kind of reaction, except a silent one.

Frenemy surveillance? What will the US do? Let us look at their options -

1. A ham-handed attempt to meddle with a very, very complex ethnic alphabet soup on the eastern frontier, with a rapidly crashing Myanmar offering opportunities for the US deep state to do what it has been very successful in doing in the past, making a major hash of things. May the heavens help the tribes, or the Bamar;
2. Attempts to stiffen the spines of the north-facing tribes, especially those in the erstwhile NEFA, now Arunachal Pradesh. This is the worst harm it can do India, as it will inevitably invite a very aggressive Chinese response, even if it comes in disguised form;
3. Attempts to resolve the water disputes, that are wholly spurious and due to a basic lack of understanding of the effects of the Farakka Dam on both West Bengal and Bangladesh (in short, it was a hydrographic disaster, and, coupled with the desi TVA, the Damodar Valley Corporation, it killed Calcutta Port, a port that once took small to medium cargo boats up to the Calcutta docks).
4. A general watching brief on the Indian government and its ministries, as well as the West Bengal government and ministries; no harm there, Indians opposed to Modi will surreptitiously welcome it, but very quietly, not to attract hostile attention - the US has been a destination but never an ally.

So there we are.

The greatest harm will be caused by utterly short-sighted and silly elements in New Delhi, Calcutta and Dhaka, not by the US.

 

[SABRE]

Pretty big development in South Asia.

How will this affect bilateral relations with Pakistan and India.

I am more interested in how this will affect internal situation in other South Asian countries, especially Pakistan.

 

[Circadian Rhythm]

I feel this is a good opportunity for India to take a step - a long step backward. Bangladesh, and the Bangladeshis, including the crypto-Jamaatis who are everywhere, need to figure things out for themselves. Just at the moment, what they have done to their own country, without much assistance from SHW, is a serious self-inflicted injury. Allowing a nexus of the Army, the Jamaat and the BNP has its own dynamic. The thing is, it is none of India's business, and the more we allow an independent nation to address its own problems, without gratuitous interference, the better.

Regarding the possible hazards, Encroachment can only be a reaction of the seriously compromised External Affairs Ministry (compromised in terms of Indian internal politics) and of the Chief Chowkidar, the National Security Advisor. The rest of the nation, with the possible exception of a home-bred loose cannon, should stop thinking of Bangladesh as an Indian backyard.

Balance altering? Yes, but this is altering a balance that was artificially weighted, and recovering from this may not be unnatural, nor should it provoke any kind of reaction, except a silent one.

Frenemy surveillance? What will the US do? Let us look at their options -

1. A ham-handed attempt to meddle with a very, very complex ethnic alphabet soup on the eastern frontier, with a rapidly crashing Myanmar offering opportunities for the US deep state to do what it has been very successful in doing in the past, making a major hash of things. May the heavens help the tribes, or the Bamar;
2. Attempts to stiffen the spines of the north-facing tribes, especially those in the erstwhile NEFA, now Arunachal Pradesh. This is the worst harm it can do India, as it will inevitably invite a very aggressive Chinese response, even if it comes in disguised form;
3. Attempts to resolve the water disputes, that are wholly spurious and due to a basic lack of understanding of the effects of the Farakka Dam on both West Bengal and Bangladesh (in short, it was a hydrographic disaster, and, coupled with the desi TVA, the Damodar Valley Corporation, it killed Calcutta Port, a port that once took small to medium cargo boats up to the Calcutta docks).
4. A general watching brief on the Indian government and its ministries, as well as the West Bengal government and ministries; no harm there, Indians opposed to Modi will surreptitiously welcome it, but very quietly, not to attract hostile attention - the US has been a destination but never an ally.

So there we are.

The greatest harm will be caused by utterly short-sighted and silly elements in New Delhi, Calcutta and Dhaka, not by the US.

What happens to the US aim ie to carve out a Christian Nation from India , Bangladesh and Myanmar

 

[Joe Shearer]

What happens to the US aim ie to carve out a Christian Nation from India , Bangladesh and Myanmar

I don't pay attention to the lunatic Indian fringe.

 

[SABRE]

Getty Images
Demonstrators attempted to tear down a statue of Ms Hasina's father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman

Attempted? I have seen a video where they actually did bring down a statue of SMR

 

[Circadian Rhythm]

I don't pay attention to the lunatic Indian fringe.

OK , you don't like me. But this question affects Indian interests

 

[SaadH]

Fourth time Bengalis fought for their independence and won...

Whereas the so called martial races of Pakistan are still enslaved for eternity...

 

[Circadian Rhythm]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/pm-sheikh-hasina-alleges-plot-to-carve-out-christian-state-from-bangladesh-a-white-man-offered-101716790082724.html

Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has alleged a conspiracy to create a Christian state similar to East Timor by partitioning parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. She claimed she was offered an easy reelection in January if she permitted a foreign nation to establish an airbase in Bangladesh, without disclosing the country's name.

 

[Oscar]

I feel this is a good opportunity for India to take a step - a long step backward. Bangladesh, and the Bangladeshis, including the crypto-Jamaatis who are everywhere, need to figure things out for themselves. Just at the moment, what they have done to their own country, without much assistance from SHW, is a serious self-inflicted injury. Allowing a nexus of the Army, the Jamaat and the BNP has its own dynamic. The thing is, it is none of India's business, and the more we allow an independent nation to address its own problems, without gratuitous interference, the better.

Regarding the possible hazards, Encroachment can only be a reaction of the seriously compromised External Affairs Ministry (compromised in terms of Indian internal politics) and of the Chief Chowkidar, the National Security Advisor. The rest of the nation, with the possible exception of a home-bred loose cannon, should stop thinking of Bangladesh as an Indian backyard.

Balance altering? Yes, but this is altering a balance that was artificially weighted, and recovering from this may not be unnatural, nor should it provoke any kind of reaction, except a silent one.

Frenemy surveillance? What will the US do? Let us look at their options -

1. A ham-handed attempt to meddle with a very, very complex ethnic alphabet soup on the eastern frontier, with a rapidly crashing Myanmar offering opportunities for the US deep state to do what it has been very successful in doing in the past, making a major hash of things. May the heavens help the tribes, or the Bamar;
2. Attempts to stiffen the spines of the north-facing tribes, especially those in the erstwhile NEFA, now Arunachal Pradesh. This is the worst harm it can do India, as it will inevitably invite a very aggressive Chinese response, even if it comes in disguised form;
3. Attempts to resolve the water disputes, that are wholly spurious and due to a basic lack of understanding of the effects of the Farakka Dam on both West Bengal and Bangladesh (in short, it was a hydrographic disaster, and, coupled with the desi TVA, the Damodar Valley Corporation, it killed Calcutta Port, a port that once took small to medium cargo boats up to the Calcutta docks).
4. A general watching brief on the Indian government and its ministries, as well as the West Bengal government and ministries; no harm there, Indians opposed to Modi will surreptitiously welcome it, but very quietly, not to attract hostile attention - the US has been a destination but never an ally.

So there we are.

The greatest harm will be caused by utterly short-sighted and silly elements in New Delhi, Calcutta and Dhaka, not by the US.

It seems more like India is moving in the situation where its borders will be surrounded by purgatory situations. Not to derail this further but Sri Lanka is in purgatory, Pakistan is nearly there and we’ll see how this goes.

Maybe a great idea for secure(isn) borders but it also means those borders are useless for transit or trade.. so all you have left are seaLOCs - not a great long term strategy.

 

[Oscar]

Fourth time Bengalis fought for their independence and won...

Whereas the so called martial races of Pakistan are still enslaved for eternity...

What does that tell you about those races and their peoples?

A lost cause that needs no more discussion on this thread

 

[Joe Shearer]

OK , you don't like me. But this question affects Indian interests

It doesn't exist. It affects nobody's interests.

 

[Al-Zakir]

Attempted? I have seen a video where they actually did bring down a statue of SMR

Not only this. There are many and all are being taken down.

They also burned down his house in Dhaka. There shall be no sign of Awami cult in new Bangladesh.

 

[Oscar]

I am more interested in how this will affect internal situation in other South Asian countries, especially Pakistan.

No butterfly effect for Pakistanis - no need to waste time discussing it

 

[Oscar]

Not only this. There are many and all are being taken down.

They also burned down his house in Dhaka. There shall be no sign of Awami cult in new Bangladesh.

I kind of disagree with that - the man deserves his respect , maybe not the overbearing cultism that his daughter built for dynasty purposes but he is a founding father of BD.

 

[Joe Shearer]

It seems more like India is moving in the situation where its borders will be surrounded by purgatory situations. Not to derail this further but Sri Lanka is in purgatory, Pakistan is nearly there and we’ll see how this goes.

And when I say that the sycophant Jaishankar is a pedantic idiot who has messed up our earlier reasonably balanced external affairs management, there are cries of outrage from all the 'devoted'.

Not entirely his fault. He is trying to implement the impulses of a street corner riot incitement expert. It doesn't work that way.