Israel’s Genocide in Gaza | 2023- till present
- Thread starter Ali_Baba
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ziaulislam
Elite Member
That's what acess to money does to you
Dudes could have asked the talibans how to do it..i.e buy generic stuff not traceable not a custom large order
ziaulislam
Elite Member
Falcon29
Elite Member
Here we go again. US has moles in Iranian government. They made slightest discussion. US gonna spam such statements until Iran backs off again. Imminent would mean tonight. It's not imminent and US gonna scare Iran from even considering it and ruin element of surprise.
lamdacore
Registered Member
I have been watching this closely and the efficiency with which Israel has eliminated Hezbollah commander is astonishing and naturally this has skyrocketed Netanyahu's standing in Israel. He is riding the wave big time.
I have also questioned why Iran is so timid and I see that many members have the same sentiment. But then I started wondering....if I was part of the decision makers in Tehran...what would I do?
On the immediate outset, everyone wants Iran to do something along the lines of how Israel wants it to do so and the wider west. Nothing would give more pleasure to them to have the excuse and start bombing Iran and clearly Iran is not playing that game.
Hezbollah is greatly weakened but not eliminated and probably has instructions to hold the ground for the time being.
Then we have Netanyahu openly stating to the Iranians to engage in revolt and dissent while also indicating their ability to reach far into Iran and to remove said "tyrants" is a very strong and clear message that Israel feels emboldened to take on Iran soon.
So, gentlemen, I would like to say....considering the rapid erosion of Iranian Axis of Resistance and thus its strategic deterrence....I strongly believe the lack of response or no response from Iran means only one thing.
Couple this with the fact that Hezbollah is not launching most of its rocket arsenal but rather in piecemeal indicates a hidden strategy.....they are waiting for something.....something big of a signal.
I believe the Iranians are weaponising their enriched Uranium to build upto 5 bombs. Some opensource intelligence gives an indication but this also tells us they can be off on their estimates.
https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/articles-reports/irans-nuclear-timetable-weapon-potential
If the war in Lebanon becomes too serious such that Hezbollah actively starts losing the ground war, I strongly believe that Iran is going to conduct a limited nuclear test close to the border with Syria and Iraq. It would be strong enough to let the Americans feel it and done in a manner where it would be clear it is not an earthquake. I expect silence straight after......a clear signal and sign that something has changed. Iran will continue developing at least 3 bombs and weaponise and marry to their ballistic missiles. It will show it and the enemies will know it. Once it is ready, it may declare it and it will do so to regain the strategic deterrence.
Here is what will happen if they do:
1. It will cause a massive shift in calculus for Israel and once it is out Netanyahu will be the leader who pushed Iran to get a nuclear weapon. That will be his political death. His politics of protecting Israel with the endless war and bloodshed would have culminated in forcing an enemy to develop weapons that can actually remove the jewish state.
2. Israel will be forced to announce its nuclear weapons.
3. The American will mull over whether to start bombing Iran. BUT Russia will welcome Iran to the club and will clearly be open to using nuclear weapons simply by updating its doctrinal use to cover strategic allies. Russia simply can not lose Iran especially in the ongoing Ukraine war.
4. Iran will take a very clear stance and a cool one like its president at the UN. Giving no indications of war or war like stance but of peace. It will maintain this posture but will brandish the nukes openly.
5. If war is still progressing, Iran will let Hezbollah unleash massive barrages of ballistic missiles, held in reserve, under the cover of the new strategic deterrent.
6. Iran will call for a ceasefire under fair terms. The GCC and other regional players will panic and will push for the ceasefire. The US will have to halt arms supplies to Israel to prevent Netanyahu to continue the conflict.
7. American bases will be targeted putting more pressure.
8. Iran will demand war reparations to be paid by Israel towards Palestine and Lebanon. To remove its forces and to agree to a two state solution.
9. Resistance to this demand will likely see the increase in missile strikes and Iran will actively hit Israel if its forces are targeted while maintaining its nuclear posture.
10. Hitting Iranian nuclear silos or launch vehicles would be extremely difficult due to the mountainous terrain demanding a committed air attack risking the launch of nukes.
11. GCC running to Pakistan to sell them nukes....which our army would sell on the cheap to pocket all the money.
12. Iran would put demands on the US to end sanctions.
All of this or some of this or other events not predicted would take place between now and the US elections. This is the time when Iran will be forced to become a nuclear state.
The silence from Iran is deafening and it is likely this reason. I hope I am wrong because this would be the biggest change in middle eastern dynamics and likely the world.
I have also questioned why Iran is so timid and I see that many members have the same sentiment. But then I started wondering....if I was part of the decision makers in Tehran...what would I do?
On the immediate outset, everyone wants Iran to do something along the lines of how Israel wants it to do so and the wider west. Nothing would give more pleasure to them to have the excuse and start bombing Iran and clearly Iran is not playing that game.
Hezbollah is greatly weakened but not eliminated and probably has instructions to hold the ground for the time being.
Then we have Netanyahu openly stating to the Iranians to engage in revolt and dissent while also indicating their ability to reach far into Iran and to remove said "tyrants" is a very strong and clear message that Israel feels emboldened to take on Iran soon.
So, gentlemen, I would like to say....considering the rapid erosion of Iranian Axis of Resistance and thus its strategic deterrence....I strongly believe the lack of response or no response from Iran means only one thing.
Couple this with the fact that Hezbollah is not launching most of its rocket arsenal but rather in piecemeal indicates a hidden strategy.....they are waiting for something.....something big of a signal.
I believe the Iranians are weaponising their enriched Uranium to build upto 5 bombs. Some opensource intelligence gives an indication but this also tells us they can be off on their estimates.
https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/articles-reports/irans-nuclear-timetable-weapon-potential
If the war in Lebanon becomes too serious such that Hezbollah actively starts losing the ground war, I strongly believe that Iran is going to conduct a limited nuclear test close to the border with Syria and Iraq. It would be strong enough to let the Americans feel it and done in a manner where it would be clear it is not an earthquake. I expect silence straight after......a clear signal and sign that something has changed. Iran will continue developing at least 3 bombs and weaponise and marry to their ballistic missiles. It will show it and the enemies will know it. Once it is ready, it may declare it and it will do so to regain the strategic deterrence.
Here is what will happen if they do:
1. It will cause a massive shift in calculus for Israel and once it is out Netanyahu will be the leader who pushed Iran to get a nuclear weapon. That will be his political death. His politics of protecting Israel with the endless war and bloodshed would have culminated in forcing an enemy to develop weapons that can actually remove the jewish state.
2. Israel will be forced to announce its nuclear weapons.
3. The American will mull over whether to start bombing Iran. BUT Russia will welcome Iran to the club and will clearly be open to using nuclear weapons simply by updating its doctrinal use to cover strategic allies. Russia simply can not lose Iran especially in the ongoing Ukraine war.
4. Iran will take a very clear stance and a cool one like its president at the UN. Giving no indications of war or war like stance but of peace. It will maintain this posture but will brandish the nukes openly.
5. If war is still progressing, Iran will let Hezbollah unleash massive barrages of ballistic missiles, held in reserve, under the cover of the new strategic deterrent.
6. Iran will call for a ceasefire under fair terms. The GCC and other regional players will panic and will push for the ceasefire. The US will have to halt arms supplies to Israel to prevent Netanyahu to continue the conflict.
7. American bases will be targeted putting more pressure.
8. Iran will demand war reparations to be paid by Israel towards Palestine and Lebanon. To remove its forces and to agree to a two state solution.
9. Resistance to this demand will likely see the increase in missile strikes and Iran will actively hit Israel if its forces are targeted while maintaining its nuclear posture.
10. Hitting Iranian nuclear silos or launch vehicles would be extremely difficult due to the mountainous terrain demanding a committed air attack risking the launch of nukes.
11. GCC running to Pakistan to sell them nukes....which our army would sell on the cheap to pocket all the money.
12. Iran would put demands on the US to end sanctions.
All of this or some of this or other events not predicted would take place between now and the US elections. This is the time when Iran will be forced to become a nuclear state.
The silence from Iran is deafening and it is likely this reason. I hope I am wrong because this would be the biggest change in middle eastern dynamics and likely the world.
Sarhang
Registered Member
IR is infested with spies yes but US has all the tools in the world to detect any movement that suggest anything like that.
You can't surprise the US.
hussain0216
Elite Member
Falcon29
Elite Member
Good points. Didn't think of that. But how would they know or estimate timing? Or is it a ploy to try to delay or cancel such a strike ?
SteppeWolff
Trusted Member
All that is true, I am talking about the economy, business, corporate sector in Israel, you think sporadic missile attacks, people running to shelters won't effect all that? Keep this situation for long and businesses would start moving out.
hussain0216
Elite Member
Mix that with international law, protest and boycotts then we can all hurt and target Israel
Falcon29
Elite Member
I don't believe it Western made pagers. But that was supposedly a communication method for Radwan force not the whole organization.
Beast89
Registered Member
probs bs
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