Unfortunately if IRIAF and Industry are not willing to build a 4 gen or 4.5 gen superiority aircraft that engineer has no interest for the Government.
It’s not that there not willing there an immense challenges to setting up necessary infrastructure to build aerospace planes at mass scale. And aerospace (fighter jets in particular) are something that the costs will only come down at SCALE. Trying to build only 48 aircraft or 48 engines is a terrible waste of resources given the amount of infrastructure and supply chain set up needed.
There is also the philosophy, does Iran believe in the value of an airforce? The answer is no, not at this time.
Also there is funding, Iran has one of the smallest military budgets among countries involved in active conflict/proxy wars. The budget is simply not conducive for a manned fighter jet program. Our neighbor Pakistan is able to run it because it’s a direct benefactor to Chinese ToT and assistance, much like Iran was under the Shah.
Without a “big brother” power like Russia, China, or U.S. to provide the jumpstart and ongoing technical assistance and infrastructure set up you aren’t going to build a 4.5 or 5th gen program on military budget of $15B annually.
The nuclear program was estimated to cost north of 100B dollars and I estimate a major dedication to manned fighter jet production without foreign assistance will like cost that much over a 5-10 year period. So where is Iran going to get that money from?
Especially when the outcome (ie is the final product any good) is not even known? Iran could spend 25B+ before finding out it cannot even build a reliable fighter jet. Just look at India with Tejas project and they have access to foreign tech and advisors!
But returning back to UAV I agree MALE are dead when it is used in a light protected airspace (you are seeing it right now in Lebanon). So the answer would be a HALE and as much as low observable possible.
But again, the bottleneck it is the engine. More than copying the RQ170, the great leap forward would be to clone the engine. I am not sure if the engine of the RQ170 was either a Garrret TFE or a Williams FJ44. But there are many corporate aircraft around the world with them. It should be easy to study alloys and try to reverse engineer those small turbofans even if they are not exact copies. The Industry could black market probably tens of them.
But I think the main problem for Iranian UAV expanding it is the engine bottleneck.
The main problem for every major Iranian military project has been an engine:
Fighter jet > engine
Tank > engine
APC > engine
Heavy Attack Helicopter > engine
Transport plane/helicopter > engine
Large drone > engine
Supersonic CM > engine
Hypersonic CM > engine
Heavy SLV > engine
Heavy Submarine > engine
Heavy warship > engine
It is the one area of Iranian arms industry that is holding it from becoming a mini-China in terms of making the quantum leap in arms production.
To be fair this isn’t an Iranian problem. It’s a worldwide problem. Hence why few countries can challenge the U.S. hegemony, it’s better for them to be allied and get tech transfer and assistance than trying to challenge them military.
Russia owes much of its knowledge from Soviet Union and only China has been a country to be able to stand toe to toe with Western war machine and that required 25 years of being the sweat shop of the west. China was smart in that they played the long game and were initially very friendly and pragmatic with the West so that they could build their economy to be able to withstand the west and master the various technologies needed to be a global superpower.
Instead after the revolution Iran came out swinging at the West and the East and chose a confrontational path without having the necessary economy in place to sustain such an approach.