Can the US win a war with China? Shocking new simulation reveals what could happen if Taiwan is attacked

[hussain0216]

China is a massive power

Taiwan is only 100 miles off it's coast

China can overwhelm any forces that close to it's mainland

Will it be brutal? Sure but China will win

 

[ety]

At worst, China can try and destroy entire entire Taiwan but then it gets pushed back so badly that it will never rise again.

Pure Indian delusion.

 

[drkrn86]

You see, the problem with China is they can overwhelm Taiwan. With people. You kill a lot but a lot more will still keep on coming. From sea and from Air.

That's what he was suggesting. Make it too steep price.

You hit their fleet with a "Force de Freppe" French style, they will know that it is the end of the road, next is 30 warheads all over Shenzen Beijing etc and they will behave.

At worst, China can try and destroy entire entire Taiwan but then it gets pushed back so badly that it will never rise again.

Taiwan is likely to rise again with support from west. Who's gonna help China?

Once they realise this they will throw all of this "One China" delusion and all of this conflict can finally die. This entire "Lets go back to glorious past" has been problem in Asia. Once they know that they have to let the damn past die they can move forward.

True.

 

[liuzhengdong]

這不是飛彈技術的問題，這是戰爭如何打的問題，即使你說的是100%的準確率，台灣是一個島嶼，這意味著中國需要至少有5支艦隊來完全封鎖台灣，你不能用3支艦隊維持24/7 的海上控制。你需要一個五邊形來包圍一個島嶼，而不是一個三角形。

另外，艦艇運動是機動的，你談論的是一支擁有你的反艦導彈無法觸及的最大核潛艇艦隊（75艘核潛艇）和世界上最強大的海軍戰鬥機的海軍，而美國如果中國想維持海軍警戒線，中國就必須留在該地區，因為你正在為地面部隊提供海軍支援。

這兩件事加在一起，如果你被固定在潛水艇出沒的區域，你的飛彈就起不到多大作用。你要嘛站在那裡被美國海軍航空兵毆打，要嘛試著在潛艦出沒的西太平洋追趕美國艦隊

台灣島和日本沖繩島都在中國陸基反艦飛彈的射程範圍內。中國只需要在大陸部署幾個飛彈旅，就能擊沉1000公里內的軍艦和商船。中國不需要海軍，只要陸軍和空軍就可以封鎖台灣島。中國擁有數千枚反艦飛彈，可以擊沉任何接近台灣的船隻。

中國還擁有80多艘潛艦、數百艘反潛護衛艦、數十架大型反潛艦，無人潛艦和無人反潛機也開始服役。美國海軍面對世界第二大反潛艦隊、裝備五代機的世界第二大空軍以及世界上第一的反艦彈道飛彈。台灣相當於中國的本土作戰，美國面對的是整個國家戰爭機器。

 

[liuzhengdong]

That's what he was suggesting. Make it too steep price.

Taiwan is likely to rise again with support from west. Who's gonna help China?

True.

What kind of help does a country that has a space station and can bring lunar soil back to Earth need? ?

China can survive various advanced weapons and can independently manufacture fifth-generation fighters and aircraft carriers. I don’t know what kind of help this country needs.

China is not like India. Without American engines, it cannot produce fighters.

 

[j_hungary]

You see, the problem with China is they can overwhelm Taiwan. With people. You kill a lot but a lot more will still keep on coming. From sea and from Air.

You hit their fleet with a "Force de Freppe" French style, they will know that it is the end of the road, next is 30 warheads all over Shenzen Beijing etc and they will behave.

At worst, China can try and destroy entire entire Taiwan but then it gets pushed back so badly that it will never rise again.

Once they realise this they will throw all of this "One China" delusion and all of this conflict can finally die. This entire "Lets go back to glorious past" has been problem in Asia. Once they know that they have to let the damn past die they can move forward.

The problem is you need to fight offshore, you can't just have the 1 millions soldier swim the Taiwan strait. Which mean you will need both Transport and Escort to cross the channel and land at a desirable area, which mean the troop China can put on Taiwan shore depends on their Sea Lift Capability and there aren't that many place suitable for that type of landing in Taiwan, which mean those approach will be watched. Which mean at the end of the day Taiwan can choose to focus on their defence on those given gap and maximize their defence.

China sea lift capability relatively small, you are talking about ~50,000 put together LHA/LHD + Airborne, which mean the Chinese can at most fed 50,000 troop once at a time before they need to make the return trip to bring another 50,000 and then another.

 

[liuzhengdong]

You see, the problem with China is they can overwhelm Taiwan. With people. You kill a lot but a lot more will still keep on coming. From sea and from Air.

You hit their fleet with a "Force de Freppe" French style, they will know that it is the end of the road, next is 30 warheads all over Shenzen Beijing etc and they will behave.

At worst, China can try and destroy entire entire Taiwan but then it gets pushed back so badly that it will never rise again.

Once they realise this they will throw all of this "One China" delusion and all of this conflict can finally die. This entire "Lets go back to glorious past" has been problem in Asia. Once they know that they have to let the damn past die they can move forward.

How can they repel it? The most advanced AGM-158C produced by the United States has a production quantity of less than 400, while China has a variety of long-range supersonic anti-ship missiles equipped with a quantity of 2,000 (not counting anti-ship ballistic missiles), which can sink all US aircraft carriers. China is equipped with an 11-tube 30mm CIWS with a firing rate of tens of thousands of rounds, while the United States is still using the old Phalanx CIWS. In terms of air defense, Chinese warships are already one level higher than the United States.

 

[j_hungary]

台灣島和日本沖繩島都在中國陸基反艦飛彈的射程範圍內。中國只需要在大陸部署幾個飛彈旅，就能擊沉1000公里內的軍艦和商船。中國不需要海軍，只要陸軍和空軍就可以封鎖台灣島。中國擁有數千枚反艦飛彈，可以擊沉任何接近台灣的船隻。

中國還擁有80多艘潛艦、數百艘反潛護衛艦、數十架大型反潛艦，無人潛艦和無人反潛機也開始服役。美國海軍面對世界第二大反潛艦隊、裝備五代機的世界第二大空軍以及世界上第一的反艦彈道飛彈。台灣相當於中國的本土作戰，美國面對的是整個國家戰爭機器。

Dude, you don't understand what I am talking about.

You can hit those base, but the ship in japan would have already sortied out at the first sign of hostilities. Again, you can't make a large task force disappear, when you wag the tail gather up and start taking on load, the US Navy would have know. Beside even if you are that outstanding and able to ambush 7th Fleet in Japan where they moored, you are still looking at 2 other fleet in the area (3rd Fleet in Hawaii and 4th Fleet in the Carribean and potentially 5th Fleet in the Middle East) they will come from open ocean, but the Chinese would have to tie down their fleet to support the ground troop, again, it makes the same situation I described before, you either sit there and take the pounding from a combination of USAF and US Naval Aviation or you have to go and chase down the American fleet in sub infested open ocean East of Taiwan.

All the while Taiwan is a near peer, it's not like Ukraine and Russia, Taiwan themselves have thousands of anti-ship missile, surface to surface missile and hundred of ATACMS. All those can hit China as well, you did not even factor that into your equation.

 

[liuzhengdong]

Dude, you don't understand what I am talking about.

You can hit those base, but the ship in japan would have already sortied out at the first sign of hostilities. Again, you can't make a large task force disappear, when you wag the tail gather up and start taking on load, the US Navy would have know. Beside even if you are that outstanding and able to ambush 7th Fleet in Japan where they moored, you are still looking at 2 other fleet in the area (3rd Fleet in Hawaii and 4th Fleet in the Carribean and potentially 5th Fleet in the Middle East) they will come from open ocean, but the Chinese would have to tie down their fleet to support the ground troop, again, it makes the same situation I described before, you either sit there and take the pounding from a combination of USAF and US Naval Aviation or you have to go and chase down the American fleet in sub infested open ocean East of Taiwan.

All the while Taiwan is a near peer, it's not like Ukraine and Russia, Taiwan themselves have thousands of anti-ship missile, surface to surface missile and hundred of ATACMS. All those can hit China as well, you did not even factor that into your equation.

If the U.S. fleet wants to attack China, it must enter a range of 1,000 kilometers from the Chinese coast. The range of China's anti-ship ballistic missiles is 2,500 kilometers. The H-20 stealth bomber can also go out of the East China Sea and launch 1,000 kilometers supersonic cruise missiles at the U.S. aircraft carrier battle group. The U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy also have to face China's joint sea, land and air strikes. The People's Liberation Army also has stealth fighter jets that can seize air superiority over Japanese islands.

The US aircraft carrier faced an attack by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen and could not bear it and ran away.

Taiwan has less than 500 anti-ship missiles and a total of less than 100 missile launchers. Even if Taiwan wants to equip thousands of them, it does not have that many institutions and manpower. In a place as big as Taiwan, it will face the Chinese Air Force and unmanned aerial vehicles. Machine, it would be nice to have ten percent left. China has 120 air defense missile battalions and 35 Aegis destroyers. Why don’t you count China’s air defense force?
The People's Liberation Army has a thousand land-based anti-ship launch vehicles, the Air Force has 200 H-6s capable of carrying four anti-ship missiles, and the Chinese Navy has 100 022 stealth missile boats alone.

Target ship simulating a US aircraft carrier in the Chinese desert，Dedicated anti-ship ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers

 

[liuzhengdong]

The problem is you need to fight offshore, you can't just have the 1 millions soldier swim the Taiwan strait. Which mean you will need both Transport and Escort to cross the channel and land at a desirable area, which mean the troop China can put on Taiwan shore depends on their Sea Lift Capability and there aren't that many place suitable for that type of landing in Taiwan, which mean those approach will be watched. Which mean at the end of the day Taiwan can choose to focus on their defence on those given gap and maximize their defence.

China sea lift capability relatively small, you are talking about ~50,000 put together LHA/LHD + Airborne, which mean the Chinese can at most fed 50,000 troop once at a time before they need to make the return trip to bring another 50,000 and then another.

China has hundreds of civilian-to-military roll-on/roll-off cargo ships that can carry 100,000 troops and equipment.

The first 50,000 troops that landed carried 100,000 mechanical wolves and drones.

In the future, the PLA will land with unmanned amphibious vehicles to release mechanical wolves

 

[Arion ⵣ]

They simply can't. the us as of now lack in many areas that make fighting china or even russia hard, if not impossible. after ww2 the us and majority of europe engaged in low intensity conflicts against poor nations with no means to defend themselves. afghanistan was more of a safari than an actual conflict. when talking about china or russia, it means fielding a land army that is capable of sustaining a long term, high intensity conflict with an opponent that have the lead on you in many areas from size, to production capacity to loss tolerance. i don't see them capable of doing anything to change this reality for now. and that aside, i don't see major powers confronting each other directly, other than using proxies like ukraine or perhaps taiwan, but that's a whole different story, considering the conditions that made ukraine sustainable for sometime is lacking in the case of taiwan.

 

[j_hungary]

If the U.S. fleet wants to attack China, it must enter a range of 1,000 kilometers from the Chinese coast.

Why?

First of all, you have Naval Aviation, you don't launch just within 1000 kilometers as there is a thing call "Refueling", second of all, it's not attacking China, you are attacking Taiwan. Land base system in Taiwan is more than enough to attack China

The US aircraft carrier faced an attack by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen and could not bear it and ran away.

Taiwan has less than 500 anti-ship missiles and a total of less than 100 missile launchers. Even if Taiwan wants to equip thousands of them, it does not have that many institutions and manpower. In a place as big as Taiwan, it will face the Chinese Air Force and unmanned aerial vehicles. Machine, it would be nice to have ten percent left. China has 120 air defense missile battalions and 35 Aegis destroyers. Why don’t you count China’s air defense force?
The People's Liberation Army has a thousand land-based anti-ship launch vehicles, the Air Force has 200 H-6s capable of carrying four anti-ship missiles, and the Chinese Navy has 100 022 stealth missile boats alone.

Taiwan have MORE than 500 anti-ship missile, HF-2 alone is into thousand (Both Block 1 and Block 2) and HF-3 are >250. On the other hand, Taiwan have money, they can buy both MBDA and Raytheon tech, the only reason they weren't getting them is because the invasion threat is slim, if China change course and started to threaten Taiwan, you can bet your ass Taiwan is getting multiple hundred of both Storm Shadow, Brimstone, Harpoon and Sea Shadow missile....

Target ship simulating a US aircraft carrier in the Chinese desert，Dedicated anti-ship ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers
View attachment 83872

Again, why would you need to even come close to 1000km when you can just launch sortie and then use aerial refuelling?

On the other hand, Ballistic Missile technology is unproven, and 350kg warhead won't sink a carrier....

 

[j_hungary]

China has hundreds of civilian-to-military roll-on/roll-off cargo ships that can carry 100,000 troops and equipment.

The first 50,000 troops that landed carried 100,000 mechanical wolves and drones.

In the future, the PLA will land with unmanned amphibious vehicles to release mechanical wolves
View attachment 83876

Dude, do you even know what is RO/RO ship and how big of a clearance (Draft) you need to use those? Unless you are talking about landing in a gangway or a dock, Ro/Ro ship is not going to work because it does not have a flat hull, you are going to run aground seabed near the beachhead before you can storm the beach.



This is a RORO Ship



This is a LST

Can you see the difference?

And lol, you probably never even go on a ship full gear, you can barely able carry your rifle and your pack with you, and you are talking about each soldier carry two Switchblade like Drone......You are probably gonna drown before you reach ashore..... yes, laden your troop in the sea when they storm the beach, what can possibly go wrong??

 

[drkrn86]

What kind of help does a country that has a space station and can bring lunar soil back to Earth need? ?

Sheer overconfidence. "Vinashakale Vipareeta buddhihi".

China can survive various advanced weapons and can independently manufacture fifth-generation fighters and aircraft carriers. I don’t know what kind of help this country needs.

So? Still it didn't negate my point that you don't have friends that would bat for you.

China is not like India. Without American engines, it cannot produce fighters.

Irrelevant to bring India here.

 

[drkrn86]

The problem is you need to fight offshore, you can't just have the 1 millions soldier swim the Taiwan strait.

Who knows? Tomorrow the type board warriors here will come up with research claiming Chinese soldiers now have gills.

Which mean you will need both Transport and Escort to cross the channel and land at a desirable area, which mean the troop China can put on Taiwan shore depends on their Sea Lift Capability and there aren't that many place suitable for that type of landing in Taiwan, which mean those approach will be watched. Which mean at the end of the day Taiwan can choose to focus on their defence on those given gap and maximize their defence.

That too if Chinese can defend their transport vessels.

China sea lift capability relatively small, you are talking about ~50,000 put together LHA/LHD + Airborne, which mean the Chinese can at most fed 50,000 troop once at a time before they need to make the return trip to bring another 50,000 and then another.

50,000 a day is huge. It's a mind-boggling number. You have not included their civilian vessels. They too will be used for transport during war time.
Secondly, war doesn't end by placing soldiers on Taiwan territory, the Chinese need to maintain supply lines across enemy territory after crossing sub-infested waters or Eagle (F-series) infested skies.
It's a nightmare scenario for anyone.