Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[StrategicBear]

no, ceasefire who will endure 60 days, not 60.000 years. If you pay attention, at the beginning of the Gaza war, Israel also made a week/months-long agreement with Hamas but then everything came back, it will be the same thing here. In a few months israel will attack Lebanon again, using tradicional lies as argument. Meanwhile, hezb can receive more weapons, and get more equipment. Hezb has about 100/150.000 soldiers , nor 500/1000 of them died ! , it means less than 0.3% of your army was destroyed but some equipment was(other equipment was not destroyed but were used), so they need new .

In these 60 days, Iran will prepare news fronts, news "proxies" , and all will continue.


No because, other fronts will attack, you will see.

Yup, in these 60 days, next time Hezbollah would have already learned the lessons of the past 1 year+ exchange and be more willing to fire more missiles at Israeli cities and civilians without hesitation to rise to cost of aggression on the Israelis, and ensure that the death of every Lebanese civilian would cost the Israelis very much.

 

[StrategicBear]

Israel’s goal always was to bring residents back to the North. Some users on here are claiming its victory because HZ was not destroyed, I am not sure how HZ could be destroyed by a minor ground incursion. That’s impossible, you can’t destroy militant groups by the air either, this has been proven in Afghanistan, Yemen, Kurdistan, Baluchistan, etc. and there is no stomach for a major ground incursion into Lebanon by Israel or U.S. Israel doesn’t even have the political capital for such a move due to its fallen standing in the world.

Now wether the ceasefire holds or doesn’t is to be seen, but the facts on the ground as of today is as follows:

HZ withdraws heavy weaponary and bases from the border.
HZ ceases all further attacks on Israeli territory

Israel withdraws from Lebanese land and stops targeting HZ assets
Israel reserves the right to attack HZ if it returns to southern Lebanon border or plans more attacks.

This was the same offer that Bibi presented to Nasrallah before the ground campaign started and Nasrallah refused to delink from GAZA. Well the new HZ leadership (with guidance from Iran) decided to fight another day and agreed.

Not sure where you got 500-1000 casualties.

Based on funeral posters alone there have been at least 1500 casualties

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This account tracks public funeral posters. Who knows the real number since not all families have public funerals.

But it’s not like HZ has a manpower problem. HZ lost ALOT more soldiers in the 10 year Syria civil war and was fine and gained valuable experience. This conflict today isnt a massive ground war it’s largely an aerial war with each side firing volleys at each other.

So the loss of foot soldiers isn’t really a critical factor at this time. The loss of senior advisors, commanders, etc on the other hand does hurt a bit because they had experience and wisdom you learn only thru repetitive battle.



There is no new “fronts” , there is the Lebanon front, Syria front, Iraq front, and Yemen front. And the strongest proxies are Yemen and HZ. Yemen is too far away to threaten the Israeli homeland constantly and HZ needs to retreat to reform. Syria is not a player in the conflict nor does it want to be. Iraq also suffers from a distance problem like Yemen. So I’m not sure what new proxies or front you expect to open, but geographically there are numerous obstacles.

Israel’s goal always was to bring residents back to the North. Some users on here are claiming its victory because HZ was not destroyed, I am not sure how HZ could be destroyed by a minor ground incursion. That’s impossible, you can’t destroy militant groups by the air either, this has been proven in Afghanistan, Yemen, Kurdistan, Baluchistan, etc. and there is no stomach for a major ground incursion into Lebanon by Israel or U.S. Israel doesn’t even have the political capital for such a move due to its fallen standing in the world.

Now wether the ceasefire holds or doesn’t is to be seen, but the facts on the ground as of today is as follows:

HZ withdraws heavy weaponary and bases from the border.
HZ ceases all further attacks on Israeli territory

Israel withdraws from Lebanese land and stops targeting HZ assets
Israel reserves the right to attack HZ if it returns to southern Lebanon border or plans more attacks.

This was the same offer that Bibi presented to Nasrallah before the ground campaign started and Nasrallah refused to delink from GAZA. Well the new HZ leadership (with guidance from Iran) decided to fight another day and agreed.

In some ways HZ lost and some ways Israel also lost. I don’t think you can say either party clearly won or lost. HZ probably took the most strategic damage (loss of leadership and high value weaponry) and Israel likely suffered quite a bit in economic losses as well as material damage to bases/weaponry. The most significant is the economic losses due to civilian population and trade being impacted.

Nonetheless, the Axis has failed to secure peace in GAZA and that was the whole point of even being involved in this conflict by the various proxies (Houthi’s , HZ, and Iraqi Legions).

TP3 will mostly be Iran trying to restore deterrence on its sovereign territory so that tomorrow Iranian soil doesn’t look like Lebanon and Gaza with Israel striking Iranian military targets like it’s a game of wack - a - mole.

I disagree with your assumption that Iranian soil would look like "Israel striking Iranian military targets like it’s a game of wack - a - mole."

The Israelis know that such a thing is impossible, mainly because they know that all major civilian facilities like power plants, desalination plants and many other essentials will be bombed out of existence if Israel tries to make bombing Iranian targets a common occurrence.

Iran has more conventional firepower to end Israel's economy within a day than Israel has to end Iran's economy.

In fact, they know once they bombed Iran's nuclear plants nothing will stop Iran's devastating retaliation of 2000+ missiles within 2 days, and Dimona reactor too will be gone, and they will see a Nuclear Iran in as little a time than they expected.

And if they dare nuke Iran, Iran can simply nuke them back with only 3 nuclear missiles, so they know better not to provoke Iran...

 

[LongLiveIran]

It will be carried, this is at least the 10th time Iran says they do not removed it "because of Trump" or "because of ceasefire", TP2 took 1-2 month to be done, from now i think 2-3 weeks is probably realistic for TP3

Artesh will also participate in the bombing of Israel

I just can't see it happen when Hezbollah is out of the equation. I hope I'll be proven wrong though.

 

[UKBengali]

I just can't see it happen when Hezbollah is out of the equation. I hope I'll be proven wrong though.

Hezbollah lost deterrence by October and TP2 still happened.

Iran would make a massive mistake if it does not carry out TP3. It needs to regain deterrence by humiliating the entity not to mess with a greater power.

 

[LongLiveIran]

Hezbollah lost deterrence by October and TP2 still happened.

Iran would make a massive mistake if it does not carry out TP3. It needs to regain deterrence by humiliating the entity not to mess with a greater power.

I definitely agree that Iran should launch TP3 as soon as possible and as painfully as possible, but if I remember correctly, TP3 was supposed to be a coordinated attack involving different militia groups in the Axis of Resistance. With Hezbollah out, we can only rely on Houthies of Yemen and Iraqi militias. Hezbollah is the ace of Iran's militia allies.

 

[LongLiveIran]

The Israelis know that such a thing is impossible, mainly because they know that all major civilian facilities like power plants, desalination plants and many other essentials will be bombed out of existence if Israel tries to make bombing Iranian targets a common occurrence.

That's exactly what they don't know because whenever Iran attacks, it's only for face saving and fire works. The Islamic Republic has signaled weakness and lack of willingness to hit Israel with real destruction for decades and that has always led and will lead to more adventurism on the side of Israel.

 

[Flotilla]

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View attachment 84544View attachment 84545

If these are the last images of this war then it will indicate Hezbollah needs to learn a lot

Unfortunately HZ are not prepared for stopping this kind of attacks. I think it is Iran who have understood the need of long range SAM systems and new long range interceptors to avoid such images.

 

[Flotilla]

lol Netanyahus own supporters are starting to call him a "Traitor" , his own political allies claim this "Surrender will break his political neck".

Its funny how quickly Netanyahu gave in once Washington told him "Its enough".

they threatened him to stop the endless flow of money and weapons and he immidiatly obeyed.

clearly shows Israel is fully dependent on Handouts from the US or it wont survive, even Hezbollah could conquer north Israel if it wasnt for unlimited US money and Arms coming to Israel.

Israeli anger at 'irresponsible and hasty' ceasefire

Many displaced residents of northern Israel feel unease and mistrust over their PM's deal with Lebanon.

www.yahoo.com

"
But surrender is exactly what Netanyahu is being accused of by his political rivals - and some of his political allies too.

One poll yesterday suggested that more than 80% of Netanyahu’s support base opposed a deal, and many residents in the north of Israel - large numbers of whom have been evacuated from their homes - are angry too.

Shelley, an English teacher in Shlomi, said a ceasefire was an “irresponsible and hasty political decision”.

Rona Valency, evacuated from kibbutz Kfar Giladi on 8 October last year, told me she wanted to go home, and that a ceasefire was needed, but that the idea of Lebanese residents returning to these villages gave her “a real sense of unease and fright”."

The real defeated It is civil society inside Israel. Any moderate, liberal, leftist or even common sensed civilian will get out of Israel.

Common people will stablish again in EU or US back. Israel Regime have opened the Pandora's box. Even if Hamas would be decimated to the brink of extinction (it won't as it is a idea), Israel society understand that they become again in a wicked nation and whoever wants to remain there living, are accepting a teocratic government inside a military dictatorship and a medieval society based on religion.

 

[jauk]

Oct 7th is marked as a historical strategic defeat for Zionia. Tactically, the 'ceasefire' with Hezbollah is another deep defeat for Zionia as well. Note, if there were any chance Zionia thought it could make progress in Lebanon it would not have accepted defeat and humiliation ('ceasefire'). All Zionia has to show is genocide in Gaza, international humiliation, exhausted and humiliated military, a battered population, and a shattered economy. Not to mention destroyed deterrence. It will grapple with all of this for the remainder of its existence. Everything else is dust in the wind and for the dimwitted to pluck on like so many chickens stuck in an intellectual chicken coop.

This translates into a significant strategic victory for The Axis Of Resistance.

It doesn't take too many words to describe the obvious. It does take a lot of words, however, to weave something into something else when it is far from the case.

Occam's Razor reigns.

 

[jauk]

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[tsunset]

Israeli left over photo op flags progressively removed from Lebanon

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[tsunset]

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[tsunset]

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[jauk]

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Correct! Not only a fiscal issue but in opposition to the nature of The Resistance as a powerful asymmetric force.

 

[StrategicBear]

Correct! Not only a fiscal issue but in opposition to the nature of The Resistance as a powerful asymmetric force.

The problem is if Hezbollah can't protect the skies of Lebanon from Israeli planes, then the enemy planes keep bombing civilian targets having the possibility of turning Lebanese civilians against Hezbollah for starting a war without the means to protect civilians from airstrikes.

It's OK if Hezbollah fighters are martyred in air strikes because fighting is their job, but civilians are not fighters and should not die needlessly just because their own armed forces do not have the means to defend their skies properly...