Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations
- Thread starter jauk
- Start date
PakAl
Elite Member
Israel is quietly taking more Syrian territory, they may end up controlling most of Syrian Lebanese border.
ToddE
Trusted Member
If Iran sacrifices its nuclear capability, it will become another Iraq/Syria/Libya/Lebanon/Yemen/Afghanistan ... whatever secret enrichment content there is it should be weaponized and announced openly ASAP if akhoonds already have not done it. If we go by IAEA numbers, there will be enough WGU for a diverse arsenal of ~40 fission devices from 1KT to 6KT yield just before Trump takes oval office. That is enough deterrent with IRGCs missile/drone forces to buy Iranian nation some time. To keep Israel-US-NATO at bay Iran will probably need 200+ devices in next 3-4 years.
Iran needs to get rid of Khamenei and his pu$$y policies of islamic unity before our 3000 years old noble nation is turned into whatever rest of the middle east has become.
Immortals
Elite Member
Assad fell because he didn’t have an economy and had no chance of building one, even if he stayed in power another 50 years. He was destined to become another Venezuela or Cuba. A barely functioning failed state.
Iran will fall because it doesn’t have an economy, not because it didn’t have nukes or not enough missiles or fancy strategic weapons. That is the West goal, whether it takes 5 years or 50 years. West has all the time in the world.
If Iran gets nukes, the entire world will sanction it into oblivion like they did North Korea. Even Russia and China will support sanctions. What are you going to offer the West to get out from sanctions? Give up your nukes? lol
Iran is on a path to capitulation. Toman has gone from:
$1 USD = 1000 Toman in 2010
$1 =60,000 Toman at the start of 2024
$1 =72,000 Toman at the end of 2024
Do you understand the currency is collapsing? Do you guys think Iran is a reserve currency or something?
Either Iran accepts a deal or it will collapse from economic bankruptcy. US and Zionists can wait Iran out. No need for war. Iran can no longer use Syria, Hamas, and HZ to annoy them for a deal.
The world revolves around the Dollar/Euro not the worthless Toman.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
the problem is the time it would take to enrich to 90% then weaponise a good number of warheads. the enrichment alone will take months, and the west will be notified immediately due to NPT surveillance / spies.
ultimately IRI is very conservative, and they have been publicly signalling they are now willing to enter talks with Trump directly (this was not the case last time) and they do not want to keep the JCPOA but make a new deal
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
the embassy was already looted, those guarantees are meaningless. still we rely on the promises of others, how stupid
ToddE
Trusted Member
I am afraid your argument is all over the place. On one hand, you are saying Iran should have gone to war with Israel-US-NATO-EU, so that its proxies like Hamas or Hezbollah could have been saved. And on the other hand, you are telling me that there is a massive crisis and weaknesses in the entire IRI infrastructure of administration? That's a contradiction on a whole different level. I told you we are a regional power at best with a global strategic role. We can control our neighborhood. We can show fangs to our neighbors to keep them at bay and keep our economy separate from the international debt mafia of Anglos-Jews, but by no means we can go to war with global powers who control resources, trade-ways, and governments of the planet. I understand you are feeling emotional seeing an ally of Iran fall. But why are we there in the first place? Why did we give the lives of our boys, generals, and billions of USD to the people who just do not want to run along our ideology? This money should have been spent on Iran itself. This Akhoond policy has completely failed. There is no Islamic unity. Arabs should be left on their own to become subjects of Israel and Israel's loyal condom Turkey. We have no business in levant IMO.
You're seriously overestimating the support Iran might have gotten in a war with US, NATO, and Israel just because a few leftist student groups in the West started protesting in universities. Everybody hates Israel/Jews. Here in Europe, there is anti-semitism on a level among Europeans that we in the Middle East cannot even imagine. Yet, these people would not come running to your help if you're caught up in a war with Israel-US/NATO. So the entire argument of "momentum" is just flawed. Iran economically or militarily never had the capability, or any country in the world has the capability to take on these people. The best we can do is have a deterrent of nuclear armed forces, a robust resource-based economy. Ayatollahs started their projects in Levant some 20-30 years ago without putting in much thought. Your complaints about the economy of Iran is no different from what we have all known for years. This mismanagement, this entire system of incompetency has led us into this pickle, yet you want us to pit against trillion+ dollar economies of the world. What would that lead to? Extinction of Iranian nation?
I will ask a more basic question, why are we in Levant? What are we gaining from fighting Israel? Has Israel ever attacked Iran? Has Israel ever said it will ruin Iran? take Khuzestan or Kurdistan or balochistan? post WWII Batthist Arabs have traditionally been our rivals. Turkey has been a traditional rival for centuries. There used to be a problem with Russian empires and later USSR, but with Russian weakness even that threat is kinda gone now. So why are we putting Iran against global tyrants to save Arabs? Why these characters like Nasrullah, Haniyeh, Sinwar and Assads are needed in Iranian strategy? Yes, Iran had strategic victories in last 2 decades in controlling Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and Gaza, but has it gotten us anything? We should have had an economy of 3-4 trillion US dollars by now considering our potential, our resources. We should have been a nuclear-armed space power by now considering how talented our people are. We are easily the most highly technocratically skilled nation in STEM fields in the entire Islamic world. But our leaders instead wanted us to liberate Jerusalem. If you are going into such basic details then these things need to be discussed as well. I see IRI as nothing different than what Shah was. They are as stupid and incompetent as the Shahi administration was. I think they have done their part. I am not against them. They have defended Iran and fought for Iran with their lives so their sincerity cannot be doubted. But I think it is time for them to just kiss the power goodbye and be replaced by aggressive, nationalistic younger leaders who understand the modern world. These old clergy guys have no place in Iranian leadership anymore.
Mr Iran Eye
Registered Member
Iranian officials said:
“Iran warned Assad two months ago that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham was preparing to act, but he rejected the threat.
The Turkish foreign minister assured us that nothing would happen, which was an obvious lie.
When Tahrir al-Sham entered western Aleppo, Iran expected Assad to ask for military assistance and was ready to respond to that request – but no such request came.
After the fall of Aleppo, it became clear that Assad had no intention of staying in power, so we began to engage in diplomatic negotiations with the opposition and organize the withdrawal of our forces from Syria.”
“Iran warned Assad two months ago that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham was preparing to act, but he rejected the threat.
The Turkish foreign minister assured us that nothing would happen, which was an obvious lie.
When Tahrir al-Sham entered western Aleppo, Iran expected Assad to ask for military assistance and was ready to respond to that request – but no such request came.
After the fall of Aleppo, it became clear that Assad had no intention of staying in power, so we began to engage in diplomatic negotiations with the opposition and organize the withdrawal of our forces from Syria.”
That would be a nice and interesting theory if not for the fact that the US via the Emirates offered Assad sanctions relief and investments and reconstruction if he would just kick Iran out and close the supply routes into Lebanon. He declined, this was just a few weeks ago.
Bashar was offered several times throughout the years to normalise with Israel and reap the benefits. Bashar was seen as a promising future leader as he moved from London back to Syria. Secular, progressive and a western oriented young man, they had high hopes for him.
Truth is, Syria was devastated after 14 years of conflict and had the whole western world and the Islamic world against it, sanctions, no investment, media psy ops, no reconstruction. Iran and Russia couldn't lift that burden since both are struggling themselves.
The People of Syria, for economical and sectarian reasons weren't willing to support him a anymore. I think people don't realise the amount of anti Assad propaganda giant media outlets in the west and Arab world partake in on a daily basis for the past 14 years. Also a huge section of the Syrian population see themselves as the descendants of the Ummayids (Nemesis of Shia) and have a major hate boner for anything remotely close to Shiaism, Bashar being from an Alawite family certainly didn't help.
Another important factor here is Bashar didn't have anyone like Qassem Soleimani fighting on his side or even rallying support for him in Iran or Russia, I think this current Iranian government lacked the will and motivation to do a fraction of what Qassem Soleimani already did before.
Bashar Syria was slowly suffocated and was ultimately killed by a thousand cuts. This was inevitable.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
I agree with a lot of this but not about Israel
Israel is a hegemonic and arrogant entity and they will not accept a nuclear Iran under any circumstances. their agents have been and are trying to balkanise / destroy iran. it is in our interest to weaken them, though I agree with the critiques of the methods used and costs incurred.
we need to think with a 100+ year view, not just 10-20 years. US global mafia is not going to leave so quickly. but building nukes is not an obvious answer either, even if we can attain nuclear warheads without a pre-emptive attack by the US / NATO / Israel (somewhat unlikely), this will not fix the underlying economic problems, but only make them worse
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