Syrian Civil War and The future of Syria after liberation

[_Arabia_]

Israel is now occupying Mt. Hermon and unverified reports state that their tanks are just miles away from the capital Damascus.

The reasons for occupying Mt. Hermon from an Israeli perspective are worth reading.

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Apparently the reply of an Israeli.

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So what is the truth here?

I think that we need to wait a bit and actually verify what is what in the midst of the fog of war. Israel loves to overstate their "accomplishments". It reminds me of the "we have defeated Hamas" rhetoric while IDF terrorists are dying on a weekly basis in Northern Gaza (that was supposedly cleared months ago).

I would wait a bit and not overblown the situation just yet.

 

[ghazi52]

Many Syrians in Turkey say 'it's time for us to leave'​

Fundanur Öztürk
BBC Turkish, reporting from Ankara

A Syrian woman in Ankara celebrates in the street, waving the new Syrian flag

Thousands of Syrians have taken to the streets whistling, dancing, singing, and chanting.

In Ankara, where almost 90,000 Syrian refugees currently live, we’ve seen unprecedented enthusiasm for the latest developments in the region.

Everyone we speak to in the Turkish capital, including women, children, and elderly people, say the same things: “It’s time for us to leave.”

Turkey is hosting large numbers of Syrian refugees who fled the country after the 2011 uprising and consequent civil war. Over three million currently reside in Turkey with a temporary protection status.

The fate of these refugees has been one of the most debated topics in Turkey in recent years.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that “voluntary, safe, dignified, and orderly” returns to Syria would increase as the situation in the country stabilises.

Experts that we have spoken to say it will be necessary to understand how any new Syrian administration plans to govern before any mass return scheme can be discussed.

Prof Dr Murat Erdogan, who is the founder and former director of the Hacettepe University Migration and Politics Research Centre, thinks there will be some movement, but says “I don’t expect millions of people to leave at one”.

“There are still risks in Syria, both in terms of security and daily life. An internationally recognised government needs to take office in Damascus. Returns must be safe, voluntary, and dignified,” he says.

 

[ghazi52]

Syrian refugee says UK's pause on asylum decisions 'disappointing'​

Neha Gohil
Live reporter

Image source,Jad Baghdadi
I've just been speaking to Jad Baghdadi, 26, a Syrian refugee in the UK and PhD candidate at the University of Oxford, who described the UK's pause on asylum decisions as "disappointing".

Baghdadi says: "The [UK] government has not dealt with any civil society or the new [Syrian] government on the ground to know whether there is a path for Syrians to go back to Syria, so how can it make such decisions?”

Baghdadi mentions he knows Syrians currently waiting for an outcome to their asylum application in the UK who have been left “fearful”.

 

[FHN]

If Iran and Russia decide to change course because they can only do so much

I have decided to tune out of the Middle East. It has more drama, intrigue, betrayal and deceit than you can find in a soap opera.There are no friends in geopolitics only interests. A clown show deserves a clown award. I will just sit back and enjoy the show let them fight! The middle east is the only region in the world that offers us all a glimpse into the future for what not to do. I'm sorry but BRICS is nothing more than a talk show like g7 I don't know why u guys take it too seriously. China prefer bilateral relations between countries than some show of force supposedly against the West that goes no where lol china is smart
To do it's own thing but Russia and Iran need to understand u can't play the same game like your enemies u will never outcompete them.

 

[ghazi52]

UN official says 16 million people in Syria urgently need aid
​

The UN Refugee Agency's representative for Syria says 16 million people in the country urgently need humanitarian aid.

Gonzalo Vargas Llosa tells the BBC World Service’s Newsday programme that 800,000 Syrians have been displaced due to the latest fighting in the region.

Before this, seven million Syrians were displaced internally, and more than five million fled to neighbouring countries and beyond.

"There’s a situation of huge humanitarian need, and huge forced displacement," he says.

Llosa mentions that the UNHCR's humanitarian operations in affected areas like Homs, Hama, and Damascus are slowly resuming.

"Every space that becomes secure we immediately move into with our partners to try to fill that humanitarian void," he adds.

 

[ghazi52]

In pictures: air strikes leave burnt-out vehicles near airport​

BBC

We've managed to get a closer look at the impact of air strikes on Syrian territory last night.

One attack caused extensive damage around the Qamishli International Airport area in the northeast of the country, where mortar shells still litter the ground amid burnt-out trucks.

Israel has justified their air strikes by arguing that it targeted military locations to prevent weapons from reaching extremists.

From the reports we've seen so far, the strikes do not appear to have hit any residential areas.

Image source,Reuters

Image source,
Reuters

 

[ghazi52]

Torture on an industrial scale​

Frank Gardner
BBC Security correspondent

Bashar al-Assad presided over a regime that tortured its opponents, and countless other innocents, on an industrial scale.

Sednaya prison, dubbed "the slaughterhouse", may have been the most infamous of all Syria’s jails, but there was also an extensive, nationwide system of detention, interrogation and gratuitous punishment.

Every branch of the security apparatus - military intelligence, air force intelligence, political intelligence and so on - had its own dungeons where people simply disappeared.

Testimonies from survivors and human rights groups show that inmates would be forced to swear that "Bashar was their god". People arrested on the slightest of pretexts would be forced to sign confessions for crimes they didn’t commit. Some had their relatives tortured and raped in front of them until they revealed names of anyone suspected of opposing the regime.

Holding those accountable is likely to be a long and painful process as Syria attempts to heal the wounds of half a century of dictatorship

 

[r3alist]

anti US hegemony folks focused more on capacity to outbuild the US in ships missiles and planes and less on saber rattling sabotage fantasies with weak hands they probably wouldn’t be anxiously jumping from one L to the next furious at world events disappointing them.Syria is just not materially important to China. You guys treat it as important by default not off any strategically material basis but by vague symbolic “anti America” association.

Syria was very important to Iran and Russia

It's not that complicated, if you want a BRICS type multipolar grouping then the major countries must feel it's worth it strategically, especially if they are expending resources, people etc to resist



Russia and Iran have done this and in coordination

But for how long?

If big boss china will forever be passive and inward looking why can't the others?

They will then in return for respite be asked to be not pro china let's say, I mean that's logical, Pakistan looks like it's already doing this with cpec

I am just posing a possibility here, that's it

That's why this becomes a blow for those who had big ambitions for brics, back to a talking shop

 

[ghazi52]

Kurdish Syrian forces allowed to withdraw from Manbij - reports​

BBC

As the UN special envoy to Syria has mentioned, there are still ongoing clashes in northeast Syria between Turkish-backed forces and the Kurdish-led group Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

In the Syrian city of Manbij, where a major clash has been taking place over the last few days, there are now reports that the SDF are being allowed to withdraw safely.

Citing a Syrian opposition source, Reuters news agency reports that the United States and Turkey has reached an agreement to ensure SDF's safe withdrawal.

Speaking in Ankara earlier, the Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said Manbij had been freed of what he described as "terrorists."

SDF was a key ally in a US-led global coalition that worked to drive Islamic State group militants out of Syria between 2015 and 2019.

 

[Strider]

Apparently the reply of an Israeli.

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So what is the truth here?

Well, it is Syrian territory. I do not know how this guy takes his kids for skiing or something. Otherwise, they would be entering Syrian territory illegally.

Occupying the peak of Mt. Hermon (which they have done now) would give the Israelis a huge tactical advantage over its Arab neighbors. They may place radars and sensors for enhanced situational awareness. It is the similar reason why they captured the Golan heights in the first place. Any faction that has the high ground has a distinct advantage over its opponents.

So what are these 'rebels' going to do now? Will there be a military or a diplomatic solution to this infringement of Syrian sovereignty? And most importantly, who is going to stop them?

This may be unpopular opinion, but Syria may require some sort of working relationship with Israel so as to keep them at bay.

 

[_Arabia_]

Well, it is Syrian territory. I do not know how this guy takes his kids for skiing or something. Otherwise, they would be entering Syrian territory illegally.

Occupying the peak of Mt. Hermon (which they have done now) would give the Israelis a huge tactical advantage over its Arab neighbors. They may place radars and sensors to enhanced situational awareness. It is the similar reason why they captured the Golan heights in the first place. Any faction that has the high ground has a distinct advantage over its opponents.

So what are these 'rebels' going to do now? Will there be a military or a diplomatic solution to this infringement of Syrian sovereignty? And most importantly, who is going to stop them?

This may be unpopular opinion, but Syria may require some sort of working relationship with Israel so as to keep them at bay.

The question is how much more Syrian land beyond the Golan Heights have actually been consolidated and controlled? There are several conflicting reports in this regard. The claim is that it is temporary in nature (hence the use of buffer zones). Will they be able to annex it fully like they did in 1981 after the 1967 failures?

As I wrote, they are likely doing it to further isolate Hezbollah and encircle them. Now they also have no challenges to worry about from Northern Israel all the way to the border of Iran (Syria + KRG and they can freely hit targets within Iran again).

I believe that you are right. Even Al-Assad talked about having a normal relationship with Israel ages ago. Believe it or not, must Arab regimes would prefer that rather than war and conflict. Just very difficult to do with such a rabid regime and as long as what goes on in Palestine continues. This is the root of all the trouble.

We will have to see how all this develops. Dangerous times ahead with Trump.

I think that their goal is to destroy every pro-Iranian regime group in the region step by step from a position of strength. Geopolitics at play. With Trump arriving shortly this is the perfect opportunity for them.

 

[r3alist]

Btw, Chinese ughyurs were in Syria in large numbers?

 

[Strider]

The question is how much more Syrian land beyond the Golan Heights have actually been consolidated and controlled? There are several conflicting reports in this regard. The claim is that it is temporary in nature (hence the use of buffer zones). Will they be able to annex it fully like they did in 1981 after the 1967 failures?

As I wrote, they are likely doing it to further isolate Hezbollah and encircle them. Now they also have no challenges to worry about from Northern Israel all the way to the border of Iran (Syria + KRG and they can freely hit targets within Iran again).

I believe that you are right. Even Al-Assad talked about having a normal relationship with Israel ages ago. Believe it or not, must Arab regimes would prefer that rather than war and conflict. Just very difficult to do with such a rabid regime and as long as what goes on in Palestine continues. This is the root of all the trouble.

We will have to see how all this develops. Dangerous times ahead with Trump.

Seeing from their habits in Gaza and West Bank, I do not think the Zionists can be counted on one bit. The current Israeli government mainly constitute of hardliners like Ben Gvir and Smotrich. Many of these politicians are settlers themselves, including Ben Gvir and Smotrich.

Even though some Arab countries extended diplomatic relations with Israel, it appears to me that much of Israeli society became even more radicalized than before. Israeli society now is very different from the one we knew back in the 90s or even 10 years back. There are very few sane Israelis out there.

The initiatives under the Abrahamic Accords has only emboldened Israeli society more to commit acts of violence against Palestinians and other Arab neighbors they deem unfavorable. At least, this is what it translates to.

I understand Trump has close relations with senior Saudi leadership. Can this be of any value for regional stability?

 

[_Arabia_]

Seeing from their habits in Gaza and West Bank, I do not think the Zionists can be counted on one bit. The current Israeli government mainly constitute of hardliners like Ben Gvir and Smotrich. Many of these politicians are settlers themselves, including Ben Gvir and Smotrich.

Even though some Arab countries extended diplomatic relations with Israel, it appears to me that much of Israeli society became even more radicalized than before. Israeli society now is very different from the one we knew back in the 90s or even 10 years back. There are very few sane Israelis out there.

The initiatives under the Abrahamic Accords has only emboldened Israeli society more to commit acts of violence against Palestinians and other Arab neighbors they deem unfavorable. At least, this is what it translates to.

I understand Trump has close relations with senior Saudi leadership. Can this be of any value for regional stability?

This is the official Trump administration position (so far).

However I don't think that this approach will succeed, KSA is not going to abandon China (largest trade partner and a strategic partner) nor sign the Abraham Accords even less so now. For that to happen the Israeli policy would need to change fundamentally and a Palestinian state be established and USA would somehow have to offer a deal to MbS that he would not be able to refuse. I don't see it as likely at all.

However who knows what will happen?

 

[Strider]

Btw, Chinese ughyurs were in Syria in large numbers?

Their numbers are unknown. But they are there alright. They seem surprisingly well-equipped.

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